The wait for war can be exhausting for those who make a living out of analysing a conflict or worse reporting on it. Similar ennui seems to be gripping many of those who predicted that West Asia would become a cauldron of violence and gore after Iran seeks revenge against Israel for allegedly assassinating the Hamas leader, Ismaeli Haniyeh, during his trip to Tehran.
Haniyeh was in Tehran to attend the event organised to celebrate the inauguration of the new President of Iran. It has been more than a month since Haniyeh was mysteriously assassinated, but there is no clue whether Tehran will unveil its much-vaunted arsenal and military strategy to take on Israel.
Iran has many reasons to get provoked. Israel and the United States of America have been lowering its military and nuclear capability. In 10 years till 2020, six of the Iranian scientists have been assassinated. The most sensational was that of famous nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakrizadeh who was killed by a satellite-controlled machine gun in 2020.
A similar strategy was seemingly used against Haniyeh who was killed in a secure guest house of Iran’s revolutionary guards (IRGC). After the manner in which Iran retaliated against the US interests in West Asia after the assassination of IRGC chief Qassem Suleimani’s at Baghdad airport. Subsequently, in April 2024, Israel allegedly blew up the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, killing two top Generals and five other members of Iran’s Quds force. In one strike, Iran was seriously hurt.
Iran, after much deliberation, used drones and missiles to bomb Israel, which hurt Tel Aviv without decapitating it. The message that Iran sent out was that if you do this again- a worse fate awaits the country.
Seemingly unfazed by Iran's threat of retaliation, Israel went ahead with its agenda to demonise Iran as a destabliser in the region. Simultaneously it has been accused of mowing down some of the top Iranian military and intelligence leaders. The killing of Haniyeh hurt the image of Iran as the assassination took place in Tehran. Unquestionably, it undermined the country's sovereignty and made it look inadequate to the task of looking after its guest. Next time many would wonder whether they can be protected if they go to Tehran.
Keeping these issues in mind, what is really bewildering for many West Asia watchers is – why has Iran not attacked Israel at a time when Tel Aviv is distracted by its long war against Palestine in Gaza and now the West Bank. Would it not make sense for the Iranian forces to take on an enemy that is fighting Houthis from the sea, Hezbollah from Lebanon and Hamas from Palestine?
Despite Iran's bellicosity, it was evident that its leadership took the US support for Israel seriously. They knew that taking on Israel would not just mean fighting their Army, but would also mean being challenged by the US and other NATO powers. Despite its advances in making drones, Iran has been hurt badly by the sanctions. Its aircrafts and military power has been undermined by the absence of quality spares.
Even its civilian air fleet has some of the highest accident rate in the world, when this writer was travelling within Iran, one found so many passengers praying before the flight. When they were asked why they were doing it? One of them answered: "We know that the plane takes off, but don’t know where and when it will land." Visibly, the absence of quality spare parts due to Western sanctions has compromised air travel in the country.
United States had moved its aircraft carrier like USS Abraham Lincoln, hundreds of F-16s and state-of-the-art fighting equipment. It will be suicidal for Iran to challenge the US firepower without being supported by Russia and China. To be fair, Russia has been beefing up Tehran’s defences and providing heft to a country that has been depleted due to Western sanctions. Will that be enough to protect a civilisation country like Iran as well as give it the necessary teeth to take on a military power like Israel?
It's not clear, but Israel wants to hurt Iran without going for a full-scale war. In the past, the two countries have collaborated to take on the threat of first, al Qaeda, and then the Islamic State. Both entities wanted Sunni domination of the Arab world and diminish the influence that Iran had over Islam as well as over the rest of the region.
There are others who claim that Israel and the US will not bomb Iran, which has architectural wonders located in Isfahan and other cities of the country. The reason is simple - Iran has a big lobby of supporters comprising of Iranian Jews who do not want their country of origin to be ravaged by high-tech bombs and missiles.
Iran has been kept safe from the bombs, but not from unceasing criticism that one finds in the media. Many of these Iranians in the US are running a campaign against the Islamic clergy for tethering women to the old values that include compelling them to wear hijab and confining them to the four walls of the house.
Iran is on an important turn. Its reform-minded President Masoud Pezeshkian is keen to talk to the West and is trying to seek assistance for rebuilding the society. It is perhaps the only country in the world where one in every two young person wants to leave the country to explore opportunities abroad. The new President would like to pursue the business of national development to prevent this brain drain and flight of talent in the country even it means giving up on exacting revenge on Israel by raining bombs and ending the wait of military analysts that are looking for war, blood and gore.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat)
