New Delhi: China faces as many as 10 overseas security risks in 2024, a year that will see 50 countries and regions going for elections, including India and the US, a new report suggests.
According to the China Overseas Security Risk Blue Book (2024), released by the China Overseas Security Research Institute (COSRI) earlier this week, the global security situation in 2024 will see a return to geopolitical games, with the risk levels of 29 countries and regions, including the US, classified as “extremely high”.
Established in November 2016, the COSRI, affiliated with the Institute for National Security Studies (School of International Studies), Renmin University of China, is a specialised think-tank focusing on China’s overseas security. It has been publishing the China Overseas Security Risk Blue Book for eight years now.
The 2024 Blue Book has predicted that the year 2024 will witness ongoing regional conflicts, a slowdown in global economic growth, the spread of major power competition to the domain of the sea, and an increase in security risks in hotspot countries, according to a report in the Global Times, the daily English tabloid that is seen as the mouthpiece of the Communist Party of China (CPC).
“Among them, the US presidential election will significantly exacerbate uncertainty in China-US relations,” the Global Times reported citing the 2024 Blue Book. “From the perspective of China’s security and interests, the evaluation delineates six categories of risks that China is facing, including domestic political risks, diplomatic risks, economic and financial risks, and social security risks, as well as public health and natural disaster risks.”
"The extremely high-risk rating refers to both the suppression of China by the US in terms of foreign investment, trade, and other aspects, as well as the significant influence of the US as a global hegemonic power impacting China’s investments in other countries and regions worldwide,” the report quoted Qi Kai, the deputy of the Blue Book, as saying. In 2023, the risk rating was ranked as “medium”.
According to the Global Times, the Blue Book has predicted 10 overseas security risks that China is about to face in 2024. Among them are an intensified perception of China among the Western world, the US presidential election significantly exacerbating uncertainty in China-US relations, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Middle East instability, the European Union’s continuation of “risk reduction” concerning China, rising economic nationalism in neighbouring countries, the ongoing impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on regional stability and cooperation, political changes in multiple African countries affecting China’s investment security, developed countries continuing to contain the global expansion of Chinese companies, intensified competition for global key mineral resources, and digital technology becoming a new hotspot for competition with China.
In 2024, approximately 50 countries and regions worldwide are scheduled to hold elections, including India, the US and Russia. While India will go for Lok Sabha elections in the first half of this year, the 60th US presidential election will take place in November.
“The Blue Book states that the development of China-US relations cannot be separated from the US election. The 2024 US presidential election will remain the biggest uncertainty affecting bilateral relations,” the report stated.
It further states that as a barometer of US domestic public opinion, the US election will become a stage for both parties’ candidates to showcase their stance on China. Through election propaganda, it will also become a powerful means to confront China through public opinion warfare. The final election result will directly impact the direction of China-US relations, it states.
In an alarming forecast, the Blue Book states that there is a risk of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza spilling over to neighbouring countries such as Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, and Syria and thus posing a threat to China’s overseas interests and security in these countries. Over 25,000 Palestinians have lost their lives so far in the war that was launched by Israel in Gaza after Hamas launched a surprise attack on the Jewish nation on October 7 last year killing over 1,200 people.
It also referred to the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen who have launched attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea, a crucial commercial shipping line. Referring to Operation Prosperity Guardian launched by a US-led coalition to counter the Houthis, it stated that this has already affected China’s maritime trade with European countries.
“If the Israeli-Palestinian conflict further escalates, the Red Sea may become a new battlefield, posing an extremely serious security threat to the Suez Canal-Red Sea route,” the Blue Book stated, adding that this “will also have a negative impact on China’s trade with Europe and the Middle East”.
The China Overseas Security Risk Blue Book reports strive to conduct a thorough and systematic evaluation of China’s security risks abroad, examining various dimensions including politics, economics, and society. The primary focus is on analysing the present state, emerging trends, and critical areas associated with China’s security risks beyond its borders.
Read More
