New Delhi: The diplomatic row between India and Canada, sparked by allegations from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that India may have been involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in British Columbia in June last year, has had far-reaching effects.
Both countries have expelled diplomats and suspended bilateral talks, adding to the uncertainty surrounding various sectors and communities in both nations. The latest escalation in tensions happened after India received a diplomatic communication from Canada last Sunday wherein it was mentioned that Indian High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma and other Indian diplomats were 'persons of interest' in the investigation into the killing of Nijjar.
On Monday, India responded with a strongly-worded statement wherein it described the Canadian allegations as “preposterous imputations” and ascribed these to the political agenda of the Trudeau government that is centered around vote bank politics. By evening, the External Affairs Ministry summoned Canadian Charge d’Affaires Stewart Wheeler and informed him that "the baseless targeting of the Indian High Commissioner and other diplomats and officials in Canada was completely unacceptable".
"It was underlined that in an atmosphere of extremism and violence, the Trudeau Government’s actions endangered their safety," the Ministry said in a statement. “We have no faith in the current Canadian government’s commitment to ensure their security. Therefore, the Government of India has decided to withdraw the High Commissioner and other targeted diplomats and officials.”
Soon after, the Ministry issued another statement informing about the Government of India's decision to expel Charge d’Affaires Wheeler and five other senior Canadian diplomats from the country.
This total downgrading of diplomatic relations marks the culmination of a more than a year of charges and counter-charges between the two countries after Trudeau alleged in the Canadian parliament in September last year that there was an Indian hand in the killing of Nijjar.
New Delhi dismissed Trudeau’s allegations as “absurd and motivated”. “Such unsubstantiated allegations seek to shift the focus from Khalistani terrorists and extremists, who have been provided shelter in Canada and continue to threaten India's sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the External Affairs Ministry had said in a statement at that time.
This escalating tension is not just a geopolitical issue. It is affecting the lives of ordinary Canadian citizens and the large Indian diaspora in Canada.
With nearly 1.8 million people of Indian origin and another one million non-resident Indians, Canada hosts one of the largest Indian diaspora abroad, which account for more than 3 per cent of the country’s total population. The diaspora, whose main concentration is in the Greater Toronto Area, the Greater Vancouver area, Montreal (Quebec), Calgary (Alberta), Ottawa (Ontario) and Winnipeg (Manitoba) have contributed significantly to the Canadian economy and society.
There are numerous business and diaspora organisations, supporting enhanced bilateral relations between the two countries. The Indian diaspora, which includes a significant Sikh community, plays an important role in Canada’s multicultural fabric.
However, this community has become increasingly divided and uneasy in light of Khalistani separatists getting a safe haven in Canada. While a miniscule section of the Sikh diaspora in Canada supports the Sikh separatist cause that advocates for a homeland for Sikhs in Punjab, India, a majority of Indo-Canadians are opposed to it. The issue has deepened divisions within the diaspora.
"The Indian diaspora in Canada will be affected because of social disharmony,” Robinder Sachdev, president of the New Delhi-based Imagindia think tank, told ETV Bharat.
According to Abhinav Pandya, founder, director and CEO of the Usanas Foundation think tank, the Indians who are already staying in Canada will now be at the mercy of the Khalistani extremists and the state would not be supportive or cooperative if they face any kind of atrocities or violence at the hands of such elements.
"Now, after the latest episode that has sent the relationship between the two countries down the drain, all kinds of anti-India elements, be it the Sikh extremists or the Islamist extremists, are going to get more and involved and have a stronger presence in Canada," Pandya said. “The place is going to be a hub of anti-India activities.”
Soon after Trudeau’s explosive allegation in September last year, India had suspended visa services for Canadians, which created anxiety for many Indians living in Canada, particularly those with family members in India. This decision disrupted plans for family visits, business travel, and other personal engagements.
Sachdev said that in India too, Indians faced delays in getting visas as the Canadian missions here were functioning with minimal staff at that time. Now, following the latest developments, the same scenario is likely to arise again.
"We have many Indians going to Canada and taking permanent residency there,” Pandya said. "I think those avenues will be severely curtailed. Those Indians going to Canada for work or to take permanent residency will face massive hurdles in getting visa or getting citizenship status for permanent residency in that country."
On the other hand, Canadian citizens who plan to visit India - whether for tourism, work, or personal reasons – will now face uncertainty with visa applications. If India halts the issuance of visas to Canadian nationals, many individuals who had travel plans will be left stranded. India has traditionally been a popular destination for tourism, business, and spiritual pilgrimages.
Members of the Indian diaspora, who own businesses, particularly those that rely on trade between India and Canada, will face uncertainty. The stalled trade negotiations, combined with the diplomatic fallout, have raised concerns that tariffs or restrictions could hurt sectors such as agriculture, technology, and manufacturing, where Indo-Canadians are active participants. There are many Indian investors in Canadian real estate and business sectors.
"This is really going to affect the trade relationship between the two countries,” Pandya said. “If there are companies or individuals engaged in any kind of commercial activity, they will face severe hurdles and obstacles now."
Education is another key area that might be impacted. India is the largest source country of foreign students with an estimated 427,000 Indian students studying in Canada, according to figures provided on the website of the Indian High Commission in Ottawa.
“Many Indian students go to Canada for higher studies,” Pandya said. “So, their careers will be at stake now. They will be facing many issues in getting work visa or getting admissions with a regular visa.”
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