New Delhi : Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a debate is going on both inside and outside India on whether the growing China-Russia ties will obstruct the traditional Russia-India friendship and hurt India’s national interest, making it much more vulnerable to China's growing prowess.
An expert opined that the Russia-China alliance will not alter or affect the Russia-India relationship, noting that 'India Russia's Relationship is as solid as a rock and is a time-tested relationship which cannot be affected by any other third country'.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to China has sparked apprehension in New Delhi. There is a growing chorus of voices calling for India to reorient its strategic priorities away from Russia. However, in the power triangle between China, Russia and India, China has no option but to accept stronger and deeper India-Russia ties.
Speaking to ETV Bharat, Dr Suvrokamal Dutta, a New Delhi-based political economic expert said, "The Triangular dynamics between India China and Russia is not possible because India and China have historical problems for which China is squarely responsible. As long as China doesn't stop its military aggressive stand against India such an axis is not possible".
" For the normalization of the Sino-Indo relationship, China has to return the illegally occupied Indian territory of Aksai Chin which is Aksai Hind and stop its absurd claims on the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. Our relationship with Russia is time-tested and solid and it will further enhance in future. If China keeps on claiming Arunachal Pradesh, India can also claim Tibet as its extended cultural region and can also declare the occupied land of Xinjiang as an Independent country", Dutta remarked.
"The Russia-China Alliance will not alter or affect the Russia-India relationship in any way. India Russia's Relationship is as solid as a rock and is a time-tested relationship which cannot be affected by any other third country", he added.
It is worth noting that in June 2023, China and some other G20 member states boycotted the G20 Tourism Summit hosted by India in Kashmir. Russia attended the summit despite the boycott, which drew attention in China and caused discomfort for the Russian support base there. In mid-August 2023, reports emerged that Russia would hand over the S400 missile defence system to India as scheduled, sparking public outrage in China and raising questions about the strength of the China-Russia friendship.
The expert further pointed out that President Putin's visit to China is a bilateral visit between two countries and it doesn't affect Russia's relationship with India in any way. On top of it, President Putin enjoys a very cordial and strong personal relationship with the Indian Prime Minister Modi. "There won't be any repercussions of President Putin's visit to China on Russia's relationship with India. China is surely very concerned about the strong time-tested relationship between India and Russia. The problem with China is that as a Nation it cannot be trusted by any other country. China always has mistrust for every country. That is where the problem lies - the mistrust of China by every Nation", added Dutta.
China fully grasps that any deterioration in Russia-India relations leading to reduced Indian purchases of Russian weapons due to Chinese interference will drive India to seek more from the US or other Western countries. This will significantly tighten the alliance between India and the West, posing a direct threat to China’s interests. The "Russia factor" currently disrupts US-India relations, providing China with greater latitude to influence developments in the Taiwan and South China Sea disputes.
Russia has historically been one of India's main suppliers of military hardware, including advanced systems like the S-400 missile defence system. This defence relationship enhances India's military capabilities, which is a strategic concern for China given the ongoing border tensions between China and India.
No matter how hard Beijing tries to influence Russia and any other countries, the country is deeply insecure about the growing relationship between Russia and India- its biggest rival. India’s strategic partnership with Russia can act as a counterbalance to China’s influence in the region. For example, this dynamic is particularly evident in forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS, where Russia and India can align on issues that might counter Chinese dominance.
On the other hand, both China and India vie for influence in Central Asia. Russia’s strong ties with India can help New Delhi secure a foothold in this strategically important region, potentially at China's expense.
China recognizes the multipolar nature of global geopolitics and understands that Russia will maintain relationships with multiple countries, including India. This pragmatic view will certainly help China to accept Russia-India ties as part of a broader geopolitical reality.
