New Delhi: In a significant turn of events amid the intense conflict in Myanmar, Arakan Army, a leading rebel faction of the Three Alliance Brotherhood, has successfully seized control of Rakhine province, gaining full control of the 271-kilometer (168-mile) long border with Bangladesh and making it the first full border of Myanmar with any country to fall.
This marks a substantial setback for the ruling military junta and dramatically alters the dynamics of the ongoing war. However, the rise of the Arakan Army has raised several questions as far as the security dynamics of India and Bangladesh are concerned. The ongoing conflict in Myanmar is a major concern for both both countries.
Dhaka is apprehensive about the influx of Rohingya refugees into its territory, while New Delhi is worried that the situation could compromise the security of its northeastern states.
Experts are of the view that the Arakan Army’s dominance in Myanmar’s Rakhine province, poses significant challenges to India’s operational security, its connectivity initiatives.
In an exclusive interview with ETV Bharat, India’s former ambassador to Myanmar, Rajiv Bhatia said, “There are significant security concerns to consider, especially when we mention strategic interests, which inevitably brings China and other players into the conversation. However, let's focus on the security aspects. The situation has evolved not only in the Arakan province but along the entire 1,643-kilometer India-Myanmar border, where control has shifted to ethnic armed groups rather than the Myanmar government. This shift means that India must now engage with the groups that hold sway over the border, including the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Chin National Front (CNF), the National Unity Government (NUG), and the Arakan Army (AA). Historically, India has had limited interactions with these groups, primarily because they have been opposing the Myanmar military. However, recent months have seen a change, with India beginning to establish relationships with these factions”.
"Consequently, India faces the challenge of balancing its cooperative ties with the Myanmar military while also engaging with these armed groups. This situation is not merely a choice between supporting military or democratic forces; it is fundamentally about territorial control. India must ensure it has access to all relevant groups along the India-Myanmar border. Notably, the Arakan Army has ethnic connections with certain insurgent groups in Northeast India, which adds another layer to this complex dynamics”, added Bhatia.
When asked if the rise of the Arakan army could impact the security dynamics along Myanmar’s border with Bangladesh, the ex-diplomat said, “There is a key issue between our two neighbours, Myanmar and Bangladesh, both facing serious internal problems. The Arakan army gaining control of the border area with Bangladesh means that Bangladeshi authorities must increasingly engage with the Arakan army. This is necessary because all movement of goods, people, and equipment across the border requires cooperation from the Arakan army. Additionally, the Arakan army has specific views regarding the Rohingyas or the Muslim residents of the Arakan region. Therefore, Bangladesh has valid reasons to be concerned. While they may act as if they are not worried, we should closely observe how the Bangladeshi authorities manage the growing influence of the Arakan army along their border”.
He asserted that the fundamental truth is there are still active anti-Indian insurgent groups operating from the Myanmar side. “Therefore, if India aims to contain and manage these groups, it must collaborate with the local Myanmar factions that have control over those regions. Additionally, while much of Northeast India enjoys peace, there are ongoing issues in Manipur, creating a unique scenario where stability is still elusive on our side. Meanwhile, the Myanmar military has faced setbacks across the border, complicating matters further. This creates a challenging and intricate landscape. Once again, I emphasize that Indian authorities must navigate a delicate balance between their relationship with the military and the various ethnic armed groups”, said the ex-ambassador to Myanmar.
Recent reports say that the Arakan Army has inflicted considerable damage on Myanmar's military regime, successfully taking over numerous towns and military outposts over the past 15 months. Just last month, the rebel forces took control of the BGP5 barracks, a crucial and strategic military installation situated close to the Rohingya-populated border with Bangladesh in Rakhine state.
Fear of Rohingya exodus
The Rohingya are a Muslim ethnic group that has lived in Myanmar for centuries, predominantly in Rakhine state. Despite their long presence, they have faced systemic discrimination from the Myanmar government and military, which does not recognize them as one of the country’s 135 official ethnic groups.
The exodus intensified in August 2017 after a series of attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), a militant Rohingya group, on police posts in Rakhine state. In retaliation, the Myanmar military launched a brutal crackdown that included killings, rapes, and the burning of villages, leading to widespread human rights violations. The UN described the military’s actions as ethnic cleansing, and later as genocide. Over 700,000 Rohingya fled to neighbouring Bangladesh in a matter of months, joining the 100,000+ who had already fled earlier in the decade due to previous bouts of violence. The refugees who fled the violence in Myanmar have mostly ended up in the Cox’s Bazar of Bangladesh, where they live in overcrowded, makeshift camps. Conditions in the camps are extremely harsh, with limited access to clean water, food, healthcare, and education. Many Rohingya refugees face the threat of human trafficking, gender-based violence, and natural disasters, particularly during the monsoon season.
Expert view
Sharing her insights, Sreeparna Banerjee, an associate fellow in the Strategic Studies Programme, ORF said that the Arakan Army's (AA) dominance in Myanmar’s Rakhine province is reshaping security dynamics along the 271-kilometre Myanmar-Bangladesh border, exacerbating an already fragile situation.
The expert pointed out that the region hosts nearly 950,000 displaced Rohingya population in Cox’s Bazar, many displaced due to conflict in Rakhine, adding’ “AA’s growing control risks further displacements, potentially pushing thousands more into Bangladesh, which is already struggling to manage the world's largest refugee camp. Additionally, increased AA activities along the border could escalate clashes, as seen in 2022, when shelling from Myanmar killed a Rohingya child and injured others as well as Bangladeshi people”,
“This has prompted Bangladesh to enhance border security with the deployment of additional Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) forces. The militarization risks disrupting regional trade, including the Teknaf-Myanmar border trade, which declined by over 74% in recent years due to instability. These developments underline the urgent need for coordinated efforts to address cross-border security and humanitarian challenges effectively”, she explained.
Implications for India and Northeast insurgency
On the question about the strategic and security implications of the rise of the Arakan Army for India, Sreeparna said that the AA's control of important areas along the Kaladan River, except for Sittwe, creates major issues for India's security and connectivity projects. Recent attacks by the AA have forced the Indian consulate to move and have led to safety warnings for Indian citizens. The AA's presence in Myanmar's Rakhine and Chin states, which are near India's Northeast, has allowed it to work with local insurgent groups like ULFA, NSCN factions, and Kuki groups. These groups receive support from the AA and other ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) for training, weapons, drugs, and bases in Myanmar, boosting their capabilities.
Insurgent and EAO activities across the border make India's border security more difficult, leading the government to increase its vigilance and counteractions. However, the changing situation in Myanmar is pushing the Indian government to rethink its strategy towards EAOs, including the AA. Engaging with these groups, despite past difficulties, is becoming essential for maintaining security and promoting India's connectivity projects, such as the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, while managing security challenges. Strengthening relationships with EAOs and other parties, including the Myanmar military, is increasingly viewed as a practical approach to stabilize India's northeastern borders, reduce cross-border insurgency, and safeguard investments in Myanmar amid changing regional geopolitics.
China’s growing influence on Myanmar
The expert further pointed out that China’s involvement in Myanmar’s internal politics is a long-standing strategy driven by its need to secure both economic and strategic interests. Over the years, China has engaged with both the EAOs and Myanmar’s military, depending on the circumstances, to maintain control over its border and safeguard key projects, particularly those linked to the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) like the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone and the gas pipeline connecting Rakhine to Yunnan.
She noted that the growing influence of the Arakan Army over key infrastructure projects presents a significant challenge to China’s strategic interests, as it threatens the security and stability of its investments in the region. In response, China is likely to intensify its pressure on the AA and other groups in a bid to preserve its strategic assets, as instability could jeopardize its Belt and Road Initiative goals in Myanmar. This dual approach of engagement and coercion reflects China’s need to maintain control over Myanmar’s strategic assets while mitigating the risks posed by the growing influence of the AA and other ethnic factions.
