Hyderabad: As Syrian rebel forces on Sunday December 8, 2024 announced that Damascus was “free" and claimed that President Bashar al-Assad had fled the country, it marked the historic end of the Assad family's 50-year rule.
Simmering civil war
Syria’s civil war began during the 2011 Arab Spring as the regime suppressed a pro-democracy uprising against Assad, who has been president since 2000. The country plunged into a full-scale civil war as a rebel force was formed, known as the Free Syrian Army, to combat government troops. The conflict swelled as other regional actors and world powers – from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United States to Russia – piled in, escalating the civil war into what some observers described as a “proxy war.” ISIS was also able to gain a foothold in the country before suffering significant blows.
Cost Of Syrian Civil War
600,000:According to estimates from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, more than 600,000 people have been killed since the start of the war.
- 12,000: According to UNICEF's Representative in Syria, Bo Viktor Nylund, "Since 2011, nearly 12,000 children were verified as killed or injured in Syria, that's one child every eight hours over the past ten years.
- 6.9 Million: In its 2023 Global Appeal, the United Nations reported that more than 6.9 million are currently internally displaced, with more than 5.4 million living as refugees abroad.
- Rise of Poverty in Syria: In 2021, the UN estimated 80% to 90% of Syrians were in poverty,In 2022, using different measures, the World Bank estimated that “extreme poverty” before the conflict was non-existent, but rose to affect 50% of the population.
- Economic losses were estimated to total US$442 billion from 2012 to 2020, up from US$260 billion in 2016.
- Syria’s Gross Domestic Product shrank 45% between 2010 and 2019 (measured by official estimates)
Infrastructure Damages
27% of Syrian’s housing stock had been destroyed or damaged (based on a survey of ten cities)
- Half of medical facilities have been damaged, and 16% destroyed (based on a survey of eight governorates)
- 63% of educational facilities have been destroyed or damaged
- Power generation was 62% lower in 2015 compared to 2010.
Who Control's How Much Territory In Syria
Assad’s regime controls about 70% of Syrian territory, much of this control depends on the support of external powers like Russia and Iran. Large parts of Syria about 30% are still out of the government's control, including opposition-held areas in the northwest and the northeast. These areas are mainly dominated by US-backed Kurdish-led group. Other opposition-controlled areas are in northwest Syria including parts of Idlib and Aleppo provinces, which are home to about 5 million people.
Major Events In The Conflict
- The Beginning of the conflict: In March 2011, President Assad faced a significant challenge to his rule when anti-government protests broke out in Syria, inspired by a wave of pro- democracy uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa. These events were known as the Arab Spring. By the summer of 2011, armed opposition groups, such as the Free Syrian Army, had emerged. The Syrian Government rejected a peace plan presented by the Arab League and which was backed by the UN.In August, the US, UK, and others called for Assad to stand down. Syria was suspended from the League in November.
- 2012; Transition Into Civil War: In 2012, fighting widened and spread to the capital Damascus and Syria’s second largest city, Aleppo. In June, a UN official described the country as being in “civil war” for the first time.Iran stepped up support to Assad, providing military advisors and helping found pro-Government militias, such as the National Defence Forces.
- 2012; Opposition attack on Aleppo: In 2012, rebel forces seized the eastern half of Aleppo, making it a stronghold of the rebellion against President Assad.
- In 2012, the number of Syrian refugees displaced by the conflict reached 500,000. By March 2013, they numbered one million, and by September 2013,two million.
- 2013; Emergence of Islamic State: 2013 included the emergence of Islamic State/Daesh in eastern Syria and Western Iraq. Over several months, the group established control over large parts of both countries. At its height, the group held around a third of Syria and 40% of Iraq. By December 2017, it lost 95% of its territory, including its nominal capital, Raqqa in Syria.
- 2014; US-led coalition attacks Islamic State: In August 2014, US air forces intervened militarily in Syria for the first time, as part of a coalition campaign against Islamic State in both Iraq and Syria. Participants included Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.
- 2015; Russia launches military campaign in support of Assad :In 2015, Russia, which had previously provided weapons and diplomatic support to Assad, launched its own military campaign. This involved deploying Russian ground troops and aerial attacks on Islamic State and Free Syrian Army forces (who opposed Assad). Russia’s intervention is seen by analysts as helping turn the war in Assad’s favour.
- 2016; In August 2016, Turkish forces intervened militarily in northern Syria, targeting Islamic State and some Kurdish forces. As a result of five military operations from 2016 to 2022, Turkey now occupies a series of areas in northern Syria.
- Assad forces take control of Aleppo with Russian assistance: However, the balance shifted in 2016 when Syrian government forces, backed by a brutal Russian aerial campaign, recaptured the city. The siege of Aleppo became symbolic, marked by indiscriminate bombings, starvation tactics, and massive displacement. By retaking Aleppo, Assad solidified his hold over key territories, bolstered by Russian and Irani support. Some analysts saw this as a turning point in the war against the Syrian rebels.
- 2017; Astana talks between Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Syria: In January 2017, Iran, Turkey, and Russia began talks in Astana in Kazakhstan. These were aimed at consolidating a national ceasefire, which had been agreed the previous December, and establishing pathways towards a political settlement to the conflict. As part of the Astana talks, the countries agreed to establish four “de-escalation areas” which allowed for the cessation of hostilities. Three of the four areas have now been taken by Syrian Government forces.
- Decimation of ISIS: The US attacked an Assad government airfield following a reported sarin gas attack.The nominal Islamic State capital, Raqqa, was recaptured in October.2017, By November, the group had lost 95% of the territory it once held.
- In December, 2017, President Trump announced his intention to withdraw all US troops from Syria, declaring that Islamic State had been defeated. Only a partial withdrawal took place.
- In April 2018, the UK, US, and France said that the Syrian regime was responsible for an alleged chemical weapons attack in Douma, north of Damascus. The three countries conducted airstrikes the same month.
- First meeting of UN-backed constitution committee: In 2019, a new Syrian constitutional committee met to draft a new constitution for Syria, under UN Resolution 2254. Talks in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 failed to make progress.
- Ceasefire in Idlib largely holds: In March 2020, a ceasefire between Turkey and Russia over Idlib, an area held by several opposition groups, was agreed. This followed several weeks of fighting in the province. The ceasefire has largely held. Assad held around 65-70% of Syria by 2020.
- Assad wins fourth term in office and talks for a new constitution stall: 2021 saw continued peace talks and an attempt to draft a new constitution. Assad won re-election as President, in a poll condemned by the US, UK and EU as unfair and unfree.
- In 2022, the military balance remained unchanged. In January 2022, Islamic State mounted a significant attack against Hasakah prison in north east Syria. The attack continued for ten days. An estimated 500 people were killed, and some fighters escaped detention.
- Earthquake and Syria back in the Arab League: In February 2023, two earthquakes and a series of aftershocks hit Syria and southeast Turkey. More than 55,000 people were killed, including 4,400 people in north west Syria. The earthquakes exacerbated the high level of humanitarian need in the region, with 84% of the 4.1 million population already aid dependent.Building on the increasing re-engagement of Arab states with Assad, in May 2023 the Arab League re-admitted Syria as a member. Protests against Assad were held in some parts of government-controlled southern Syria in August and early September 2023, centred on the Druze minority and primarily motivated by the deteriorating economic situation in Syria.
- In September 2023, President Assad was invited to China, where the two countries announced a strategic partnership and cooperation agreements on China’s belt and road initiative to help Syria’s economy recover from the conflict.
- In October 2024, the UN special envoy for Syria warned that the wars in Gaza and Lebanon appeared to be “catalysing conflict in north-west Syria in a dangerous manner.
- On December 1, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led rebels seized control of large parts of Aleppo, one of Syria’s largest cities, after a surprise offensive this week. The rebels also claimed control of the city’s international airport. According to reports, the Syrian rebels later advanced south, towards the central city of Hama.
- December 5; Syrian rebels captured the city of Hama on Thursday, a major victory in a week-old lightning advance across northern Syria and a devastating new blow to President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian and Iranian allies.
- 08.12.2024; Syrian rebel forces announced that Damascus was “free" and claimed that President Bashar al-Assad had left the capital in a statement on Sunday, December 8 2024 marking the historic end of the Assad family's 50-year rule.
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