New Delhi: Shorn of the support of his biggest partner, the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), in the coalition government that he is heading, Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Centre) is now embarking on a one-upmanship political game playing by the ears of the country’s constitution.
According to reports, Dahal, after deciding to not step down and instead go for a floor test in the Parliament, is now confabulating with a faction of the Nepali Congress, which was at one time a part of Dahal’s coalition, to ensure that CPN-UML leader KP Sharma Oli does not get hold of the Prime Minister’s post.
Over the last couple of weeks, Nepal is yet again seeing a political upheaval much to the consternation of the South Asian region as a whole and India in particular.
Following a series of swift political developments over the last few days, Sher Bahadur Deuba, former Prime Minister and president of the Nepali Congress and Oli, also a former Prime Minister and leader of the CPN-UML, which is also part of the ruling Dahal-led Leftist coalition, signed an agreement on the intervening night of Monday and Tuesday to form a new coalition government in Kathmandu. According to the deal, Oli and then Deuba, will serve as Prime Ministers on a rotational basis during the three-and-a-half-year tenure left of the present government.
Following this, the CPN-UML asked Dahal to step down from office on Wednesday as per Article 76 (2) of the country’s constitution. According to Article 76 (2), the President shall appoint as the Prime Minister a member of the House, who can command a majority with the support of two or more parties.
However, a meeting of office-bearers of the CPN-Maoist Centre decided that Dahal would not step down and instead go for a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives. According to Article 100 (2) of the constitution, if the political party the Prime Minister represents is divided or a political party in the coalition withdraws its support, the Prime Minister shall table a motion in the House of Representatives for a vote of confidence within 30 days. This gives Dahal just a month more to continue in office. However, Dahal has opted to go for a floor test as early as July 12, much ahead of the 30-day deadline he has in hand.
The latest development is the culmination of the ever-changing political landscape of Nepal. It is worth mentioning here that the Nepali Congress was earlier part of the Dahal-led coalition at the Centre. However, in March this year, the CPN-Maoist Centre severed all ties with the Nepali Congress and invited the CPN-UML to join the coalition. The other initial partners in this new coalition were the Rashtriya Swatantra Party and the Janata Samajbadi Party. However, the Janata Samajbadi Party withdrew support to the coalition in May this year citing differences with the CPN-Maoist Centre.
Meanwhile, both Dahal and Oli were reportedly unhappy with the new arrangement. Dahal was cited as acknowledging that the current ad hoc politics in the country was unsustainable and stating that he could do precious little but keep shuffling ministers. That Oli, too, was not satisfied with the arrangement became evident when he described the annual budget presented by the government as a “Maoist budget”.
All this led to mistrust between the CPN-UML and the CPN-Maoist Centre. According to Pradeep Gyawali, deputy general secretary of the CPN-UML, Dahal was in touch with the Nepali Congress for over the last month or so to form a national consensus government. This became a major cause of mistrust between the CPN-UML and the CPN-Maoist Centre. However, when the Nepali Congress rejected Dahal’s proposal, the CPN-UML decided to take things into its own hands.
“The UML and the Congress started talking and decided to move ahead together for political stability and democratic exercise,” a Kathmandu Post report quoted Gyawali as saying.
On June 29, Oli and Deuba held a closed-door meeting. On July 1, Oli held a separate meeting with Dahal. Following this, Oli and Deuba sealed the deal.
Though Dahal has decided to go for a floor test, the numbers do not stack up in his favour at all. Of the 275-member House of Representatives, the Nepali Congress is the largest party with 88 seats. The CPN-UML has 79 seats while Dahal’s CPN-Maoist Centre is the third largest party with 32 seats. The Rashtriya Swatantrata Party and the Janata Samajbadi Party have 21 and five seats respectively.
Now, the latest reports suggest that Dahal has approached Shekhar Koirala, who leads a faction within the Nepali Congress that is opposed to Deuba, to form a government under Article 76 (3) of the constitution. According to Article 76 (3) of the constitution, the parliamentary party leader of the largest party in the House of Representatives will be appointed the Prime Minister. This will pave the way for Deuba to be the Prime Minister by virtue of being the parliamentary party leader of the largest party in the Lower House.
According to a Post report, Dahal is now pushing Koirala to form a government of the Nepali Congress, but the latter has said that it is, too, late now for such a scenario to evolve.
“Dahal knows that he will go to jail for war crime charges if Oli becomes the Prime Minister,” a source familiar with politics in Nepal told ETV Bharat on the condition of anonymity. “That is why he will do anything to ensure that Oli does not become the Prime Minister. Dahal also wants the annual budget that his government tabled in May to be passed by the Parliament.”
Oli, the source pointed out, had many a time earlier made it clear that, given a chance, he would obliterate Maoists from the politics of Nepal. The CPN-Maoist Centre, led by Dahal (also known by his nom de guerre Prachanda), has been instrumental in creating political instability in Nepal since 2008 when the monarchy ended and especially since 2015 when a new constitution was adopted, the source said.
“What Dahal is doing is playing one faction against another in other parties,” the source further stated. “Former President Bidyadevi Bhandari also leads a faction within the CPN-UML, which wants a pro-China Left unity coalition government in power. This will be against India’s interests.”
That is why it will be in India’s interests if a coalition government comprising the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML is formed and Oli and Deuba hold the Prime Ministership on a rotational basis as agreed.
Read more: Fresh Political Developments In Nepal: Why India Will Keep Fingers Crossed
