New Delhi: With incumbent Joe Biden standing down from the US presidential election as the Democratic candidate and endorsing Vice-President Kamala Harris for the post, speculations are rife about the chances of the first-ever Indian-Jamaican-American candidate making it to the White House.
A whole lot of eyes are now looking at what American historian Allan Lichtman, known for correctly predicting the results of US presidential elections for four decades now, has to say about Harris’s chances.
Lichtman has developed a model called the “Keys” system based on which he makes his predictions about the results of presidential elections. He presented this system in his books. The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency and The Keys to the White House. The system uses 13 historical factors to predict whether the popular vote in the election for the President of the US will be won by the candidate of the party holding the presidency (regardless of whether the President is the candidate).
The 13 keys are:
Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party’s nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Third-party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Long-term economy: Annual real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The administration is untainted by major scandals.
Foreign/military failure: The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The administration achieves major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
According to Lichtman’s system, if six or more of these keys are false, the incumbent party will lose the election. If fewer than six keys are false, the incumbent party will win.
Lichtman’s approach is unique in that it does not rely on opinion polls, campaign strategies, or candidate personalities. Instead, it focuses on the objective performance of the incumbent party’s administration, as well as the overall political and economic landscape.
“Joe Biden has dropped out of the race,” Lichtman said on his X handle shortly after Biden made his sudden, though not unexpected, announcement on Sunday. “This has profound implications for my 13 keys to the White House prediction that has been right since 1984. The Democrats lose the incumbency key, but they can still preserve the contest key if they follow Biden’s advice and unite behind Harris. Aside from the keys, history shows that since 1900, the White House party has never been reelected when it loses both the incumbency and the contest key. But, they have at least an equal chance if they preserve the contest key.”
The “Incumbency Key” and the “Contest Key” are distinct criteria in Lichtman’s predictions.
The “Incumbency Key” evaluates whether the sitting president is running for reelection. If the incumbent president is a candidate, the key is true. If the president is not running for reelection, this key is false. This key reflects the advantage typically held by sitting presidents in terms of visibility, resources, and established political machinery.
The “Contest Key” assesses whether there is a serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. If there is no significant challenge to the incumbent party’s nomination, the key is true. If there is a serious contest, indicating internal party division or dissatisfaction, the key is false. This key is important because a contested nomination often signals party disunity, which can be detrimental in a general election.
Now the question arises as to whether Harris’s nomination will be challenged by potential Democratic candidates. The Democratic National Convention for nominating the party’s presidential candidate is scheduled to be held from August 19 to 22 in Chicago. The Republican National Convention concluded last week during which former President Donald Trump was renominated as the party’s presidential candidate.
If no one challenges Harris, the first of three advantages will go in her favour. It will signal a smooth transition within the Democratic Party.
Till last week, Biden had $220 million funds for campaigning. With Biden now endorsing Harris, she can use the Super PACs, which are independent expenditure-only Political Action Committees that may receive unlimited contributions from individuals, corporations and labour unions, for her campaign strategy.
Had she not been endorsed and other Democrats had challenged Biden, then the funds would have gone for the Democratic Party to be used for other campaigning purposes and would not have gone for other Democratic candidates’ funding for individual campaigning.
Till the time this report is being filed, following Biden’s decision to stand down, $50 million more has come to the Democratic Party’s fund for presidential election campaigning. This is the second advantage that Harris has.
The third advantage Harris has is that she is seen as a representative and leader of women, especially African American women. While Harris’s mother was Indian, her father is Jamaican. Harris can expect to garner a significant amount of African American women’s votes.
As of now, chances of Harris’s candidature being challenged by another Democratic contender are low. Any such candidate, who wants to throw his or her hat in the ring will know that it will be an uphill task. There is very little time between now and the elections in November to generate funds for campaigning.
However, having been endorsed by Biden, Harris’s biggest challenge now will be choosing a vice-presidential candidate. According to Robinder Sachdev, president of the independent think tank ImagIndia, three factors will weigh in on Harris in choosing her running mate.
“One is the candidate’s ability to generate more funds for campaigning,” Sachdev told ETV Bharat. “The second is the potential candidate’s ability to help Harris in key swing states like Michigan, Indiana, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona. And the third is that she cannot have a woman as her running mate. If both the Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates are women, this will put off American male voters.”
Several names are being floated around and speculated about as to who Harris will choose as her running mate. These include Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, Maryland Governor Wes Moore and current Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg who himself was a Democratic presidential hopeful during the 2020 elections. So, who will Harris choose and why? Watch this space.
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