Kolkata: Based on the exit poll results, the stock market is likely to react on a positive note on June 3, 2024. As the exit polls are flashing a clear advantage to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led NDA, market players on Dalal Street see a continuation of reform policies in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's third term.
They expect the government's focus on infrastructure, defence, railways and other sectors to continue. Dhiraj Relli, MD & CEO, HDFC Securities, said, “Going by a majority of pollster’s exit poll predictions, the NDA alliance could end up with 350-370 seats, enough to form the government for the third time. However, this number is almost the same as that in 2019 and short of the 400+ target of the alliance.”
"Psephologist are at their best in analysing exit polls. The actual seat count may be a little different on June 4. We also need to check the exact gains or losses in vote share by the two alliances," Relli said.
“Unless we get a surprise in the balance exit poll predictions, Indian markets may not react majorly to these numbers on a closing basis,” he said. In any case, the disappointment or the euphoria may settle down in a couple of days, and the focus may shift to the policy announcements in the first 100 days of the new government.
The fact that the BJP could return to power is good for continuing and accelerating the reform process. This outcome was mainly on the expected lines. Hence, markets may, after the initial excitement, wait for the new path set out by the latest government, experts said.
"Absolutely, the market would surely welcome the exit poll numbers on Monday. Maybe, we may see a little bit of nervousness because 400-plus was what was spoken about by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP-led alliance. Now, we will have to wait for the actual numbers on June 4," said Gaurang Shah of Geojit Financial Services.
Jan Ki Baat foresees that NDA will win 377 seats. India News D-Dynamics sees NDA will secure 371 seats, Republic Bharat-Matrize put the tally at 353-368, Republic TV - P MARQ at 359 and TV 5 Telgu at 359 seats.
"Exit polls and final election results happen every five years. These are events, which create near-term volatility, but markets are mature enough to shrug them off and move on. Finally, fundamentals and earnings growth of the companies will continue to determine market trends," said Aniruddha Naha, CIO-Alternatives, PGIM India AMC.
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