Kolkata: Global trade has turned positive in the first quarter of 2024 with India, China and the US driving the global trade, according to the report released by UNCTAD, the UN trade and development body. Green energy and AI-related products have experienced a stronger increase in growth among all the trade sectors. The value of trade in goods in the first quarter of 2024 increased by around 1% quarter-over-quarter and services by about 1.5%.
This surge, fuelled by positive trade dynamics for the United States and developing countries, particularly large Asian developing economies, is expected to add approximately $250 billion to goods trade and $100 billion to services trade in the first half of 2024 compared to the second half of 2023.
Global forecasts for GDP growth remain at around 3% for 2024, with the short-term trade outlook being cautiously optimistic. If positive trends persist, global trade in 2024 could reach almost $32 trillion, yet it is unlikely to surpass its record level seen in 2022. China, India and the US have driven the trade growth. Global trade growth in the first quarter of 2024 was primarily driven by increased exports from China (9%), India (7%) and the US (3%). Conversely, Europe’s exports showed no growth and Africa’s exports decreased by 5%.
Trade in developing countries and South-South trade increased by about 2% in both imports and exports during the first quarter. In comparison, developed countries saw flat imports and a modest 1% rise in exports. On an annual basis, however, South-South trade fell by 5% when comparing the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024.
