Delhi/Lucknow : The political scene has changed drastically in Uttar Pradesh ahead of the February 27 Rajya Sabha elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is ruling in the country's most populous state, is poised to win about seven out of the total 10 RS seats this time. It has found a new ally in Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and has enhanced its chances to field its eighth candidate as well.
RLD chief Jayanat Chaudhary has recently announced that his party will join the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, giving a further boost to the saffron brigade. To win each RS seat, 37 MLAs are needed. Based on their strength in the State Assembly, the BJP and its three existing alliance partners (excluding RLD) will easily win 7 seats in UP.
The respective strength of BJP's allies in the UP Assembly includes 13 MLAs of Apna Dal (Sonelal), six MLAs each of Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) and Nishad Party. With this, nine MLAs of RLD will have to be included considering Jayant Chaudhary's recent announcement.
The final tally of BJP and its four allies (including RLD) will be 286 in the House. For winning 7 Rajya Sabha seats, the BJP alliance needs only 259 MLA. Going by the available numbers, the BJP needs 10 more MLAs for winning the 8th RS candidate in UP. There is a heightened speculation over whether the BJP and its allies field their 8th candidate in the RS polls.
RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary has hailed the Narendra Modi government for conferring Bharat Ratna on his grandfather and former prime minister late Chaudhary Charan Singh. He made pro-BJP statements. Jayant's joining the NDA will change calculations in a big way. Without RLD, BJP is left with 18 extra votes to contest its eight candidate. With RLD's nine MLAs, the BJP's number of extra MLAs goes up to 27 votes. Then, BJP will need 10 more votes to capture the eighth seat.
On the other hand, the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP), which has 108 MLAs in the UP Assembly, can win only 2 seats out of the total 10. Its ally Congress has two MLAs. To win a third RS candidate, the SP and its allies need 11 more MLAs. Tomorrow is the last day for filing nominations and it will be interesting to see whether the BJP and the SP will field their eighth and third candidates.
Considering the available numbers, it goes without saying that both alliances cannot win extra seats without cross voting and money factor. All eyes are on the respective game plans of the BJP and the INDIA bloc parties for the RS polls to 56 seats in the country, which come just two months ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. Rival parties are putting up a fierce fight as PM Modi is aiming for a third consecutive term at the Centre.
In the RS elections, the maximum 10 seats are in Uttar Pradesh. If political sources are to be believed, Rashtriya Lok Dal chief Jayant Chaudhary may play a game changer role in this election. Now, speculation is rife how the NDA and INDIA bloc are going to win support of remaining MLS, which include one MLA from Mayawati's BSP, to win the 10th RS seat in UP. The following are the respective strength of parties in UP Assembly:
NDA MLAs in UP: 286
- BJP: 252
- Apna Dal(s) : 13
- Nishad Party: 06
- Subhaspa: 06
- RLD: 9 (to join NDA)
MLAs of India Alliance in UP: 110
- SP: 108
- Congress: 02
Independents and other party MLAs: 6
- Jansatta Dal: 2
- BSP: 1
- Independent: 3
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