Fact Check: Communal X Post Compares Hindu, Muslim Fertility From Different Periods

Boom, in its fact check, debunks a misleading viral post on X comparing Hindu and Muslim fertility rates from different periods.

CLAIM: Fertility rate among Muslims is at 4.4, while that of Hindus is at 1.94. FACT CHECK: The posts misleading combines Muslim fertility rate from 1992-1993 with figures from the 2019-2021 data for Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Jains and Buddhists. The current fertility rates of Hindus and Muslims are 1.94 and 2.36, respectively, while for Sikhs, Christians, Jains and Buddhists the rates are currently at 1.61, 1.88, 1.6, 1.39, respectively.

A viral post on X misleadingly compares total fertility rates based on religion from differing time periods to falsely claim that the current fertility rate among Muslims is at 4.4, while that of Hindus is at 1.94.

BOOM found that the post misleads users by taking the Muslim fertility rate from the 1992-1993 National Family Health Survey report, and conflating it with figures from the 2019-2021 data for Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Jains and Buddhists. The current fertility rates of Hindus and Muslims are 1.94 and 2.36, respectively, while for Sikhs, Christians, Jains and Buddhists the rates are currently at 1.61, 1.88, 1.6, 1.39, respectively.

Communal X Post Compares Hindu, Muslim Fertility from Different Periods (X)

View an archive of the above post here.

Fact Check

BOOM viewed the latest NFHS report done in 2019-2021, and found discrepancies in the figures provided in the viral post. While the fertility rates of Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Jains and Buddhists are correct, the fertility rate provided by Muslims is erroneously written as 4.4, while the latest NFHS report mentions it as 2.36.

View the fifth NFHS report (2019-2021) here.

Looking at the past reports, we found that the fertility rate for Muslims provided in the viral post matched the figure provided in the first NFHS report from 1992-1993.

Communal X Post Compares Hindu, Muslim Fertility from Different Periods (ETV Bharat)

The following table shows the fertility rates by religion from the first and the fifth report for comparison:

Religion	Total fertility rates (2019-2021)	Total fertility rates (1992-1994)
Hindu	1.94	3.3
Muslim	2.36	4.4
Sikh	1.61	< 3
Christian	1.8	< 3
Jain	1.6	< 3
Buddhist	1.39	< 3
Other	2.15

This suggests that the viral posts mislead users by taking the Muslim fertility rate from the first NFHS report (1992-1993) and conflating it with figures from the 2019-2021 data for Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Jains and Buddhists.

While the latest fertility rate for Muslims is higher than other religions, an analysis of the data from the past reports shows that the Muslim community has also experienced the sharpest decline in fertility rate.

(Note: This story was first published by Boom as part of Shakti Collective and is republished by ETV Bharat.)

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