Hyderabad: Exit Polls and Opinion Polls are critical parts of understanding voter behaviour and predicting election outcomes. Although both opinion polls and exit polls are indicators of voters' choices, they are not the same.
Viewers can expect exit polls after the last phase of an election as various news organisations and companies come up with exit poll predictions. However, what is to be noted is that its efficiency is only decided on the counting day.
The primary difference between an opinion poll and an exit poll is that the first is conducted before the voter actually casts his or her vote. It was asked by the people for whom they would be voting this time. And exit polls are taken just after a voter walks out after casting his or her vote. However, past data says credibility of both opinion polls and exit polls has been questioned.
OPINION POLLS: Pre-election or pre-voting polls, which are also called opinion polls, are carried out in the days, weeks, or even months preceding an election. These surveys are intended to gather feedback on political choices from the general public or certain voter demographics.
- Timing: Long before an election, opinion surveys are conducted to provide voters a chance to voice their ideas and intentions. This offers insights into the shifting dynamics of a political campaign.
- Sample Selection: A random sample of registered voters is frequently used in opinion polls to get a sense of the preferences of the electorate.
- Questioning: Inquiries are made regarding the respondents' plans to vote, preferred political parties, and, occasionally, a range of policy subjects. These polls assess public opinion and its potential influence on election results.
- Margin of Error: The margin of error in opinion polls indicates how questionable the findings are. The margin of error is determined by the representativeness and sample size.
- Predictive Value: Opinion polls can be a useful source of information, but they are not a precise indicator of election results. The result can be affected by variables including voter participation and last-minute changes in public opinion.
In the past, the accuracy of the opinion polls for the Lok Sabha Elections has been erratic. Opinion polls and seat forecasts have been, as the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) accurately states, "a mixed bag of successes as well as failures".
According to the analysis, the 1998 Lok Sabha Election pre-election opinion polls were "almost accurate," but the 1999 election projection "slightly overestimated" the performance of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The real Lok Sabha election results in 2004 were a "shocker" for a lot of poll commentators. Opinion and exit polls taken during the election cycle "completely underestimated" the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), which is led by Congress.
Five years later, in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, opinion polls once again failed to forecast the Congress-led UPA's win. "Predictions had failed to see the Congress upsurge" back then. From 222 seats in 2004 to 262 seats in 2009, the UPA's total had grown.
Meanwhile, the NDA was predicted to win between 257 and 340 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections. In actuality, the NDA had more than 336 seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, pollsters projected that the NDA will win about 285 seats. However, with 353 seats won by the BJP-led alliance— the BJP alone taking 303 seats — it was a landslide victory. This was the outcome that few people believed was achievable.
EXIT POLLS: Voters are questioned about their voting choices in exit poll surveys that are carried out outside of polling places. Voters are more likely to report their selections truthfully when using this strategy, which depends on their recent memories. Exit polls, as opposed to opinion polls are carried out after voting, and offer instant post-election analysis. Remarkably, private companies or media outlets rather than government officials carry out exit polls.
- Timing: The results of the exit polls, which are conducted the same day as the election, are made public soon after they close. They give an overview of the voting patterns.
- Sample Selection: Exit polls collect data from voters who have already cast their ballots, as opposed to opinion surveys, which interview a random sample of registered voters. This approach reflects the true preferences of the electorate.
- Questioning: Exit poll surveys ask voters about their choices of candidates as well as, in certain cases, the variables influencing their choices. These surveys aim to shed light on the immediate consequences of the election.
- Margin of Error: Opinion polls typically have a larger margin of error than exit polls.
- Predictive Value: Data shows exit polls to be more accurate because they record real voting behaviour.
REGULATIONS: Exit polls are governed by Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, to guarantee impartial behaviour. This clause forbids conducting and disseminating exit polls in any state between the beginning of polling and thirty minutes following the conclusion of the final voting phase. To avoid having an early impact on voter behaviour, these laws are overseen by the Election Commission of India (ECI).
TRIVIA: The Indian Institute of Public Opinion conducted the country's first exit poll during the second Lok Sabha elections in 1957. The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies' Director, Sanjay Kumar, highlighted the need of structured surveys for precise estimations of vote shares.
