Hyderabad: Voting for the 542 Lok Sabha constituencies will be completed on June 1, the 7th and the final phase of the general elections in India, dubbed as the world's biggest electoral exercise.
As soon as the polls end, all eyes will be on the counting of votes and the results on June 4. Before the actual outcome unfolds, the country would attempt to gauge on which way the camel sits by tuning into Exit Poll figures, which should be made public half an hour after the last phase of voting concludes across all states and union territories. Set for publication in the evening on June 1, the numbers could either hit the bull's eye, be somewhat closer to the actual result, or be completely off-the-mark.
What Are Exit Polls?
Before the actual counting of votes, multiple pollsters will predict the poll outcome by scientifically studying the established voting pattern and factors that have a bearing on the minds of the electorate, among other things. Many would also conduct a sample survey, to arrive at the projection of seats to every party in the fray. The sample survey conducted after voters exercise their franchise will be used to predict the numbers. Hence, the moniker - 'exit polls'.
Why Ban On Exit Polls During the Voting?
The Election Commission views the publication of Exit Polls before the prescribed timings as a violation under the provision of the Representation of the People Act, 1951. It is of the view that such things might have an impact on the minds of the voters and would influence them to act according to the numbers.
The act envisages the EC to notify the prescribed time and date for the conduct of any exit poll or opinion poll. As per law, the Commission will notify the ban of publishing of exit poll, starting from the beginning of poll on the first day of poll and till half-an-hour after completion of voting on the last day of the poll in all the States and Union Territories.
Any violation of this provision can be punished with "imprisonment for a term which may extend to two years or with fine or with both."
Date, Time of Exit Polls
The Election Commission, in a notification stated, "the period between 7 AM on 19th April 2024 (Friday) and 6.30 PM on 1st June, 2024 (Saturday) as the period during which conducting and publishing or publicising exit poll by means of the print or electronic media or dissemination in any other manner whatsoever, the result of any exit poll in connection with the current General Elections to Lok Sabha and Legislative Assemblies of Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim, 2024 and bye-election to 25 Assembly Constituencies in 12 States to be held simultaneously with the general election to Lok Sabha, shall be prohibited."
Therefore, the Exit Poll numbers can be published from 6.30 PM onwards on June 1. It warned that displaying any election matter including results of any opinion poll or any other poll survey, in any electronic media, would be prohibited during the period of 48 hours ending with the hours fixed for the conclusion of the poll in connection with the general elections and bye-elections.
Exit Poll Result 2024 Lok Sabha Elections: When and where to watch?
Different pollsters will publish their Exit Polls in the evening of June 1, 2024 on multiple news channels, website and social media platforms especially X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, Instagram and YouTube. Many pollsters live-stream the exit polls, as viewers glue to their smartphones to gauge the outcome before the real results unfold.
Assembly and Bye-Elections
The Legislative Assemblies of Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim were also held simultaneously with Lok Sabha elections and the counting of votes will follow the same schedule. The counting of votes for Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim Assemblies will be done on June 2.
By-Election to 25 Assembly Seats from 12 States - one each from Bihar (Agiaon-SC), Haryana (Karnal), Jharkhand (Gandey), Tripura (Ramnagar), Telangana (Secunderabad Cantonment-SC), Rajasthan (Bagidora-ST), Karnataka (Shorapur-ST) and Tamil Nadu (Vilavancode), two from West Bengal (Bhagawangola and Baranagar), four from Uttar Pradesh (Dadraul, Lucknow East, Gainsari, and Duddhi-ST), five from Gujarat (Vijapur, Kambhat, Vaghodia, Manavadar, and Porbandar) and six from Himachal Pradesh (Dharamshala, Lahaul & Spiti - ST, Sujanpur, Barsar, Gagret and Kutlehar) - were also held coterminous during the Lok Sabha polls.
The by-election results too will be declared, following the same counting schedule of the General Elections to the Lok Sabha. The ruling BJP is seeking a third straight term, with Modi-Shah combine, leading the campaign, on a major anti-Congress and anti-corruption planks. The Opposition INDIA bloc led by the Congress is demanding votes to save the Constitution from the saffron party.
Note: There are 543 Lok Sabha seats. In Surat Lok Sabha constituency, the BJP candidate was declared as elected unopposed after all the other contesting candidates withdrew their nomination. The Returning Officer had rejected the affidavit of the Congress candidate before that.
