New Delhi: The Centre has identified as many as 310 districts under risk-prone category in the country due to climate change, of which 109 districts are under 'very high’ category and 201 districts under ‘high’ risk. According to the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), agricultural sectors of these identified districts is expected to be severely affected.
With 47 districts, Uttar Pradesh tops the list of states where the agricultural sector is likely to be impacted badly due to climate change. In Rajasthan, 27 districts have been put under the 'very high' and 'high risk' category followed by 21 in Bihar.
In Uttar Pradesh-Baghpat, Unnao, Kannauj, Etawah, Auraiya, Kanpur (Dehat), Jalaun, Jhansi, Hamirpur, Mahoba, Banda, Chitrakut, Fatehpur, Kaushambi, Allahabad, Bahraich, Shravasti, Balrampur, Gonda, Basti, Jaunpur, Sant Ravidas Nagar have been put under 'very high risk' category.
Similarly, Ganganagar, Hanumangarh, Churu, Jhunjhunu, Alwar, Karauli, Dausa, Sikar, Nagaur, Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Barmer, Jalore, Pali, Bhilwara, Dungarpur, Banswara in Rajasthan and Sitamarhi, Madhubani Supaul, Kishanganj, Katihar, Saharsa, Darbhanga, Lakhisarai, Sheikhpura, Nalanda in Bihar have been put under 'very high' risk category.
The assessment of risk and vulnerability in Indian agriculture due to climate change is conducted by taking into account the emerging conceptual and analytical methods, as well as relevant climatic and non-climatic information, an official from the Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare told ETV Bharat on Wednesday.
“The selected indicators are classified into different forms of capital endowments that determine the system’s ability to cope with hazards. Consequently, fifteen indicators associated with five distinct dimensions of capital endowment - natural (such as annual rainfall, degraded and waste land, available water holding capacity of soil, groundwater availability, and livestock density), human (literacy), social (gender gap and self-help groups), physical (net irrigated area, road connectivity, rural electrification, market access, and fertilizer use), and financial (income and income inequity) - are chosen to capture vulnerability,” the official said.
The five indicators chosen to represent exposure include net sown area, rural population density, small and marginal farmers, SC-ST population, and cross-bred cattle. The three indicators selected for hazards are drought-proneness, flood-proneness, and cyclone-proneness, the official said.
Climate-resilient farming is imperative given the susceptibility of Indian agriculture to climate change. Approximately 51 per cent of the cultivated area in India relies on rainfed conditions, rendering it highly vulnerable. The occurrence of frequent extreme weather events across different parts of the country has resulted in significant losses in crop yield and income for farmers at a micro level, as well as negatively impacting the nation's economy at a macroeconomic level.
Impact on Crops: Climate change will have a severe impact on the cultivation of major crops, including rice, wheat, maize, and onion. It is projected that rainfed rice yields in India will decline by 20 per cent by 2050 and 47 per cent by 2080.
Similarly, irrigated rice yields are expected to decrease by 3.5 per cent by 2050 and 5 per cent by 2080. Climate change will reduce wheat yield by 19.3 per cent by 2050 and 40 per cent by 2080, with significant spatial and temporal variations.
Furthermore, the kharif maize yields might decrease by 18 to 23 per cent between 2050-2080. However, kharif groundnut yields are projected to increase by 7 per cent by 2050, but decline by 5 per cent by 2080.
The projected effects of climate change on rain-fed sorghum show a reduction in yield of about 2.5 percent in the 2020 scenario (2010–2039). Climate change is projected to affect mustard seed yield by about 2 per cent in the 2020 (2010–2039) scenario.
The Centre, however, used location-specific, climate-resilient technologies in 151 climatically vulnerable districts, with the goal of enhancing adaptive capacity and resilience against climatic variability.
“This has been done through the participation of Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) and farmer engagement, focusing on addressing climate vulnerabilities such as droughts, floods, cyclones, heat waves, high temperature stress, cold waves, and frost,” the official added.
