Kolkata/Guwahati: The go-ahead of the CAA by Narendra Modi-led Centre on Monday weeks before the Lok Sabha polls and four years after it was passed appears to have set the momentum for the high-decibel general elections likely to commence in months.
The CAA has been a major pitch for the BJP for quite some time to lap up support of majority of electorates though the move is likely to pit the government against a combined force of Opposition parties, which are likely to go all guns blazing against the government for its CAA push before the Lok Sabha polls.
The Parliament cleared the CAA in December 2019 amid protests by activists and opposition politicians. The notification will allow the central government to grant citizenship to non-Muslim migrants - from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan - who came to India due to religious persecution before December 31, 2014.
A spokesperson for the Home Ministry said eligible individuals could submit applications in "a completely online mode". "No other documentation will be sought from the applicants," an official said.
Though the Centre tried to assure minorities that the citizenship of anyone won't be taken away, there is apprehension among a section.
At the same time, politics over the CAA is expected to reach a crescendo with chief ministers of opposition-ruled states saying they will not be implementing CAA in their states.
So, what impact CAA notification will have on Lok Sabha elections in West Bengal and Assam?
Uproar in Assam
Assam, which has the highest Muslim population after Jammu and Kashmir with its share of 34% of the total 3.12 crore population, witnessed a spate of protests soon after the CAA was notified on Monday.
In West Bengal, Home Minister Amit Shah made an announcement on CAA implementation at a public meeting on the day, but its ripples were felt more in Assam, which saw a wave of protests.
After the delimitation was conducted in Assam, Nagaon, Dhubri and Karimganj emerged as Lok Sabha constituencies where Muslim voters are deciding factors.
Post-delimitation data shows that there are 7,35,812 Muslims in Barpeta whereas Hindu population is 12,34,448.
For Nagaon, the combined population of Muslims and Christians, which is 12,09,321, outnumbers 7,60,141 Hindus.
In Dhubri, Muslims with a population of 24.22 lakh are in clear majority while a combined population of Hindus, Christian and others is 1.80 Lakh.
In Karimganj too, Muslims with 9 lakh population outnember Hindus who are 6.45 lakh in numbers.
According to latest available estimates available with ETV Bharat, 65 lakh minority voter who comprises nearly 34% out of total number of 2.42 crore electorates will play a decisive role if Hindu votes do not go in the BJP's favour.
Lok Sabha constituencies with maximum Muslim population are Dhubri (80 per cent), Nagaon (70 per cent, Karimganj (60 per cent)
Various parties and organisations including the All Assam Students Union (AASU) have strongly protested against this law. The Opposition Unity Forum formed in the state under the leadership of the Congress has also strongly opposed this law.
Chief advisor of All Assam Students' Union Samujjal Kumar Bhattacharya said, "There will be a satyagraha agitation. NESO or North East Students Organization will continue agitation across the North East. Peaceful agitation and legal fight against it will continue," he said "We have the right to protest. The government cannot torture us there. We will act on the advice given by the people."
On the other hand, Utpal Sharma, President of All Assam Students' Union said, "We have already been bearing the burden of foreigners who came till March 24, 1971. After this again the burden of foreigners who came till December 31, 2014 is sought to be imposed. This is not acceptable for any reason."
Opposition Leader of Assam Legislative Assembly Debabrata Saikia Said- BJP government has denied its promises to protect Assam and Assamese People and to implement the Assam Accord to the letter by enforcing CAA today. They are the ones who have betrayed the Assamese People again They violated the Assam Accord. The Leader of the Opposition said the Congress party will also launch a strong movement against CAA.
According to president of Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) Lurinjyoti Gogoi, "The government has imposed CAA by doing a lot of injustice to the Assamese people. This racist law has been imposed on Assam by eliminating the language, culture, political future, linguistic, cultural and economic future of the people of Assam. He also said that the people of Assam never accepted this law and will never accept it. Lurinjyoti Gogoi Also Said- Former Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal and current Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma shamelessly surrendered to Delhi and stood in favor of this Act, just to protect their throne.
Meanwhile, Guwahati police gave a legal notice to the Political parties who have called for a 'Sarbatmak Hartal' in Assam to protest against the CAA.
"Any damage to public/ private property including Railway and National Highway properties or injury to any citizen caused due to 'Sarbatmak Hartal', legal action under appropriate provisions of law including Indian Penal Code and Prevention of Damage to Public Property Act, 1984 will be initiated against you and the total cost of damage to public and private properties will be recovered from you and your Organization," the notice said.
On the CAA notification, North East DCP Joy Tirkey said, "We have made arrangements in the North East district. Our experience in 2020 was unpleasant which resulted in heavy loss. The rules will be notified today and we were alerted by the Police Headquarters. We had a meeting of the Aman Committee where we briefed people of both communities. We have tagged the potential troublemakers and some known criminals. We are in touch with our beat constables and keeping an eye on social media too. We are doing a flag march for two days and will have an extensive flag march from tomorrow. Special care will be taken in sensitive areas through drones..."
Battleground Bengal
For the BJP, West Bengal where Muslims make up 27.01% of the state’s population, (2011 Census), is a battleground. Muslims are concentrated mostly in six of the state’s total 23 districts. Besides, East Burdwan and Howrah, too, have a significant Muslim population.
With an estimated three million members in the state, the community influences result in at least four Lok Sabha seats and 30-40 assembly seats in Nadia, North and South 24 Parganas districts. Lok Sabha wise it would be 5-6 Lok saha seats Also it has effect on 4-5 seats of North Bengal, where the BJP eyes winning majority of seats.
Apart from the implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), two other aspects -- identity politics and regional development -- have also surfaced as decisive factors this election, as bitter rivals TMC and the BJP go all out to woo the community with several promises aimed at solving local problems.
Murshidabad, Malda, South 24-Parganas, North 24-Parganas, Birbhum and Uttar Dinajpur are districts where Muslim votes are a deciding factor for any party. In these six districts taken together, Muslims make up 42.04% of the population.
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee on Monday clammed the Centre's move to notify Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) rules and said her government will oppose anything that discriminates against people.
"This CAA was passed in 2019. What stopped the Centre from framing the rules all this time and why suddenly wake up just before the elections? Is CAA a sweet in the hands of the BJP government? We will strongly oppose any rule if it threatens the citizenship of any person," Mamata told reporters after news spread that the Centre could notify the CAA rules later at night.
"People had exercised their franchise over all these years and governments, both at the Centre and the states along with local self governments have been elected from those votes. How can someone make all that null and void. Implementing CAA in a form that we have opposed means, the democratic rights which a section of people had before, will cease to exist. We want to make one thing clear. We will not allow CAA and NRC in Bengal and Trinamool Congress will protest tooth and nail," Mamata said adding, "The issue of CAA and NRC are extremely sensitive for Bengal and the entire North East. We don't want any unrest ahead of the elections."
On the CAA notification, West Bengal's Leader of Opposition Suvendu Adhikari said, "...Hindu refugees in West Bengal are very happy...This is a very good step. This is not an attempt to snatch someone's citizenship. Mamata Banerjee tried a lot to create confusion... This law is very clear...This is a law to give citizenship and not to take it away..."
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