A Son-Rise From the Northeast: 10 Reasons Behind Gaurav Gogoi's Victory From Jorhat

From a reluctant beginner, Gaurav Gogoi, the son of late Congress stalwart from Assam and three-time CM Tarun Gogoi, has metamorphosed into a leader of intent with a mass fan following. He combined his late father's political acumen, astuteness of understanding voters' mind with his qualities of gift of gab and youthful flamboyance. Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma himself held 20 rallies while his right-hand man and minister Pijush Hazarika, also held more than 100 rallies in Jorhat but could not ensure BJP candidate Topon Kumar Gogoi's victory.

Guwahati:It's a tale of the rise of a prodigal son of an illustrious father, who is dead now. Gaurav Gogoi, the son of three-time Chief Minister of Assam late Tarun Gogoi, was a reluctant entrant into politics but gradually metamorphosed himself into a mature politician, who combined his late father's political acumen and astuteness of understanding voters' mind with his qualities of gift of gab and youthful flamboyance.

One of the most talked-about topic in the Lok Sabha election of 14 seats in Assam is the victory of Congress candidate Gaurav Gogoi, the deputy leader of the opposition in last Parliament.

Representing the Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency, Gaurav towered over all adversities and beat all ploys of the BJP and win from the seat. He won by a margin of 1,44,393 votes over Topon Gogoi of BJP, securing 751771 votes. His rival got 607378 votes.

Gaurav Gogoi's victory dealt a major setback to the BJP in Assam. Regaining the Jorhat constituency, which had been with the BJP since 2014, Gaurav Gogoi has secured the Congress stronghold in Upper Assam.

It's discussed in the circle as if Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma lost the entire battle despite winning 11 seats. Gaurav's fight in Jorhat was not eaasy. Firstly, Jorhat, a former Congress stronghold, was entirely new territory for Gaurav.

After the constituency delimitation in Assam last year, Gaurav chose Jorhat to contest after his previous constituency, Kaliabor, was abolished. After Gaurav Gogoi decided to contest from the Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency in the 2024 elections, the BJP put all its might behind campaigning against him in Jorhat.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma himself held 20 rallies in Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency against Gaurav Gogoi, campaigning for BJP candidate Topon Kumar Gogoi. The Chief Minister's right-hand man, minister of Himanta's cabinet Pijush Hazarika, also held more than 100 rallies in the constituency.

Several other BJP leaders, including minister Jayanta Malla, camped in Jorhat. Out of the 10 assembly segments under Jorhat, seven were held by the BJP. Only three assembly segments had legislators from the Congress and its ally Raijor Dal.

With the Chief Minister's direct intervention, some influential Congress leaderslike APCC working president Rana Goswami and general secretary Suraj Dehingia, along with some of Gaurav Gogoi's close associates, were persuaded to join the BJP.

Gaurav Gogoi also faced non-cooperation from some Jorhat district-level Congress leaders. Therefore, defeating BJP's Topon Kumar Gogoi was an uphill task. Gaurav Gogoi even had to declare, "I am the Abhimanyu of Assam. I will break the chakravyuh (circular formation)!"

Gaurav Gogoi did manage to break through the BJP's and some Congressmen's 'chakravyuh.' He took lead in 9 out of the 10 assembly segments. Therefore, there is talk that Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma lost the entire battle in Assam despite winning 11 seats by NDA out of 14 seats in Assam.

Here are 10 reasons behind Gaurav Gogoi's victory in Jorhat

1. Gaurav Gogoi's charisma, skills, and oratory: Gaurav Gogoi's own skills, personality, and oratory resnated with electortaes in this year's Lok sabha election. His performance in the Parliament over the past five years impressed not only the people of the country but also all sections of society in the state. Through his logical and articulate speeches in Parliament, questioning Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP led government, and raising of the issues of Assam and Manipur, Gaurav Gogoi was able to establish himself as a worthy Member of Parliament in the minds of the people of Assam. He had already managed to create an identity for himself besides being the son of a Tarun Gogoi.

2. Winning the trust of the younger generation:This time, Gaurav Gogoi was seen to be particularly targeting young voters. One of the reasons for the high voter turnout of nearly 80% in the Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency, among the Ahom and tea tribe dominated five Upper Assam constituencies, is said to be the high participation of young voters. This was seen as a very positive sign for Gaurav Gogoi. Gogoi was successful in his attempt to use social media to bring young voters closer to him.

3. Effective use of the medium, heart-to-heart connect with mass: By effectively using social media, Gogoi was able to connect with the younger generation. He utilised the power of social media well as YouTubers, bloggers, and RJs spread his message through their mediums.

4. Turned the tide on over-confident BJP leaders:As an astute politician, he waited in the wings to turn the table on the BJP as their leaders made an all-out attempt to demean Gaurav Gogoi. The Opposition's move backfired. The BJP leaders created a narrative of Gogoi's inability to come out of the shadows of his father. Additionally, the BJP's act of forcing Congress leaders to join their party and their dismissive attitude towards Gaurav Gogoi alienated the Jorhat voters. Instead of weakening Gaurav Gogoi's position, the BJP's overconfidence pushed the Jorhat residents towards Congress. In short, the BJP's own arrogance played a role in Gaurav Gogoi's victory.

5. Decision to contest from Jorhat:Jorhat or Nagaon? Where should Gaurav Gogoi contest from? This crucial question did the rounds for sometime. After his previous constituency, Kaliabor was abolished due to constituency delimitation. "If he contests in Jorhat, he will be rejected by people. If he contests in Nagaon, he will win, but he will only become a leader for the minority Muslim(miya) community," BJP argued. Ultimately, Gaurav Gogoi took the risk and decided to contest in Jorhat. By winning the Jorhat election, he strengthened the Congress party's stronghold in Upper Assam. This decision proved to be correct and timely, showcasing Gaurav Gogoi's skills as a shrewd politician.

6. Ethnic appeal & identity politics:This was a common phrase during the election period in Assam. Gaurav Gogoi was one Gogoi, and his opponent from BJP was Topon Kumar Gogoi. Both are from the Ahom ethnicity. The Ahom kings ruled Assam for 600 years. The voter turnout in Jorhat this time was a high 79.89%. This high turnout, along with the participation of young voters, was partly attributed to the Gogoi and Ahom voter influence. Unofficially, there are more than 5 lakh Ahom voters in Jorhat. This time, community-based, rather than party-based, voting played a significant role in Jorhat. One of the reasons for the high turnout of vote was the participation of Ahom voters. The results show that the Ahom voters favored Gaurav Gogoi of Congress over Topon Kumar Gogoi of BJP.

7. Striking chord of other ethnicities, sections:Not invoking Ahom sentiment or Gogoi lineage publicly Despite the crucial role of Ahom voters, Gaurav Gogoi managed to woo other voters as well. During his campaign speeches and public activities, he did not explicitly mention 'Gogoi or Ahom.' This strategy clicked for Gaurav Gogoi.

8.BJP's internal conflict and BJP candidate Topon Kumar Gogoi's lack of performance:The internal conflict within the Assam BJP especially between the supporters of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma (new BJP) and the old BJP members also benefitted Gaurav Gogoi. This time, Gaurav Gogoi refrained from personal attacks and focused on criticising the BJP and the Chief Minister on social issues. This approach impressed the voters. On the other hand, the voters of Jorhat were not happy with Topon Kumar Gogoi, the BJP candidate's performance in the past five years, both inside and outside the Parliament. This time, the BJP in Jorhat relied solely on tea garden workers and other voters like the Nepalis. The BJP MLAs and leaders seemed helpless in the face of Gaurav Gogoi's campaigning.

9. Support from Raijor Dal, CPI, and Akhil Gogoi:Akhil Gogoi, President of the Raijor Dal party and MLA, campaigned extensively for Gaurav Gogoi in various parts of Jorhat. Additionally, the CPI party from Shivsaagar and Dimow assembly constituyency also supported Gaurav Gogoi contributing to his victory.

10. Benefitting from Tarun Gogoi's legacy:While Gaurav Gogoi carved his own identity and distanced himself from his father's image, his father's legacy also played a role. Gaurav Gogoi managed to win the highest margin of 40,000 votes in Titabar, his father Tarun Gogoi's former constituency.These factors helped Gaurav Gogoi secure victory in Jorhat, despite facing strong opposition from the BJP led by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. He not only protected the Congress stronghold in Upper Assam but also established himself as a leader of the mass.

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