Will Abdullahs Retain the Srinagar Lok Sabha Seat in the Upcoming Elections?

Srinagar Lok Sabha seat, which is now spread from Shopian to Ganderbal districts, comprising 18 assembly segments after the controversial delimitation of seats, has been a traditional NC stronghold. While NC is likely to field former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, the PDP seems to be in a dilemma between party President Mehbooba Mufti, youth leader Waheed Para and party leader Mehboob Beg, reports ETV Bharat's Mir Farhat.

Srinagar (Jammu and Kashmir): As the parliamentary elections draw near, political parties in the Kashmir valley are gearing up for the contest, with parties holding meetings to nominate winnable candidates to enter the parliament and set the stage for assembly elections, possibly being held later this year.

The Srinagar parliamentary seat, with roughly 18 lakh voters, after the controversial delimitation of 2023, is now spread from Shopian to Ganderbal districts, comprising 18 assembly segments. The assembly segments include Hazratbal, Khanyar, Habbakadal, Lal Chowk, Chanapora, Zadibal, Eidgah, and Central Shalteng of Srinagar district; Pampore, Tral, Pulwama, and Rajpora of Pulwama district; Khansahib, Char-i-Sharief, and Chadoora of Budgam district; Ganderbal, and Kangan of Ganderbal district; and one seat for Shopian district.

The Srinagar seat, after the 1977 elections, has mostly been held by the National Conference until 2014 when NC president and three-time chief minister Farooq Abdullah was defeated by the Peoples Democratic Party's leader Tariq Hameed Karra. Karra resigned in 2017 from PDP and the seat, and is now a Congress working committee member. NC's Farooq Abdullah has represented the constituency in parliament five times (from 1980 to 2019), and his son and also a former chief minister Omar Abdullah once in 1999 when he was the MoS in the Ministry of External Affairs in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led BJP government.

Post Article 370, the electoral battle in the Kashmir valley has shifted from two parties to multi-parties, and the controversial delimitation has redrawn boundaries and the electorate of the constituencies, making it difficult for political parties to choose their candidates.
The main battle in the upcoming elections will be between PDP and NC. Both these parties are members of the INDIA bloc. But NC's refusal to support PDP in the Anantnag-Rajouri seat has given a jolt to the alliance in Kashmir and set PDP apart.

Sources in NC said that the party's parliamentary board wants Vice President Omar Abdullah to contest from Srinagar, as Farooq Abdullah, most probably, is not contesting the elections. PDP sources have revealed that the party cadre and leaders are urging Mehbooba Mufti to contest against Omar Abdullah. However, a faction of party leaders is pushing for the candidacy of youth leader Waheed Para against Omar Abdullah for the Srinagar LS seat. According to sources, Waheed has expressed his reluctance to contest, citing personal reasons. Sources said that if both Mehbooba and Waheed decide not to contest from Srinagar, PDP might consider fielding Mehboob Beg for the seat.

NC banks on Srinagar as it considers the district its stronghold, as Farooq Abdullah has been elected five times for Lok Sabha from Srinagar, while both Abdullahs have been elected as MLAs and become chief ministers with Srinagar support.

After delimitation, the PDP strongholds of Pulwama and Shopian have been added to Srinagar, making it an interesting battle between PDP and NC. PDP leaders say that the party has good support in Ganderbal and Kangan. Sources said that the party will seek the support of Ishfaq Jabbar in Ganderbal and Hakim Yaseen in Khan Sahib segment of Budgam.

A senior NC leader said that the party has a strong edge in the Srinagar seat than PDP. He argued that PDP has gotten weak after all its former legislators from Srinagar formed Apni Party. Pulwama and Shopian assembly segments were won by PDP since 2002. Only former MLA Pulwama Khalil Bandh and Haseeb Drabu have left the party after Article 370 abrogation on August 5, 2018. In Srinagar, except Asiea Naqash, all its former legislators have switched over to Apni Party. In 2008 and 2014 elections, PDP won five seats out of the eight in Srinagar district. Chadoora, Chrari Sharif were also won by PDP in the 2014 elections. These successes came against NC's senior leaders, including Ali Mohammad Sagar, Irfan Shah, Syed Afaq, Omar Abdullah, Abdul Rahim Rather, and Ali Mohammad Dar.

The Ganderbal seat was held by PDP in 2002 when its late leader Qazi Afzal defeated Omar Abdullah. Kangan segment is a stronghold of NC leader Mian Altaf, who has represented it since the 90s after his father late Mian Bashir quit politics to leave the seat for his son. PDP's Bashir Mir got more than 20,000 votes in the 2014 polls and has significant support in Kangan.

PDP leaders believe that from the data of previous elections and its worker cadre having remained with the party, it can defeat NC in Srinagar.

PDP detractors say that the party's four former legislators who switched over to Apni Party have taken along the workers and senior activists with them, which could impact PDP's vote share. Apni Party is likely to field former minister and MLA from Sonwar Ashraf Mir from the Srinagar parliamentary seat, while Sajad Lone's party has indicated it will support any party that can defeat the "biggest enemy of the people of Kashmir" - a hint towards NC.