Nepal PM Dahal’s Opting For Floor Test: Is It An Exercise In Futility?

With the CPN-UML and the Nepali Congress coming to an agreement to form a new coalition government in Nepal, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the CPN-Maoist Centre has been asked to step down. But he has refused and has instead opted to go for a floor test in the parliament. This is the fifth time that Dahal will be going for a floor test since becoming Prime Minister in December 2022. What does fate hold for him? ETV Bharat takes a look at the latest developments in Nepal politics.

New Delhi: Despite facing the prospect of a loss, Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Communist Party of Nepal–Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Centre) has opted to go for a vote of confidence in parliament instead of stepping down after the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), the two largest parties in the House of Representatives, signed an agreement to form a new coalition government in the Himalayan nation.

Following a series of swift political developments over the last few days, Sher Bahadur Deuba, former Prime Minister and president of the Nepali Congress, and KP Sharma Oli, also a former Prime Minister and leader of the CPN-UML which is also part of the ruling Dahal-led Leftist coalition, signed an agreement on the intervening night of Monday and Tuesday to form a new coalition government in Kathmandu. According to the deal, Oli, and then Deuba, will serve as prime ministers on a rotational basis during the three-and-a-half-year tenure left of the present government.

Following this, the CPN-UML asked Dahal to step down from office on Wednesday as per Article 76 (2) of the country’s constitution. According to Article 76 (2), the President shall appoint as the prime minister a member of the House who can command a majority with the support of two or more parties.

However, a meeting of office-bearers of the CPN-Maoist Centre decided that Dahal would not step down and instead go for a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives. According to Article 100 (2) of the constitution, if the political party the prime minister represents is divided or a political party in the coalition withdraws its support, the prime minister shall table a motion in the House of Representatives for a vote of confidence within 30 days. This basically gives Dahal just a month more to continue in office. Even as this report is being filed late Wednesday evening, the CPN-UML has withdrawn its support to the Dahal-led coalition. According to a report in the Kathmandu Post, all the CPN-UML ministers in the coalition would tender their resignation later in the evening.

The latest development is the culmination of the ever-changing political landscape of Nepal. It is worth mentioning here that the Nepali Congress was earlier part of the Dahal-led coalition at the centre. However, in March this year, the CPN-Maoist Centre severed all ties with the Nepali Congress and invited the CPN-UML to join the coalition. The other initial partners in this new coalition were the Rastriya Swatantra Party and the Janata Samajbadi Party. However, the Janata Samajbadi Party withdrew support to the coalition in May this year citing differences with the CPN-Maoist Centre.

Meanwhile, both Dahal and Oli were reportedly unhappy with the new arrangement. Dahal was cited as acknowledging that the current ad hoc politics in the country was unsustainable and stating that he could do precious little but keep shuffling ministers. That Oli too was not satisfied with the arrangement became evident when he described the annual budget presented by the government as a “Maoist budget”.

All this led to mistrust between the CPN-UML and the CPN-Maoist Centre. According to Pradeep Gyawali, deputy general secretary of the CPN-UML, Dahal was in touch with the Nepali Congress for over the last month or so to form a national consensus government. This became a major cause of mistrust between the CPN-UML and the CPN-Maoist Centre. However, when the Nepali Congress rejected Dahal’s proposal, the CPN-UML decided to take things in its own hands.

“The UML and the Congress started talking and decided to move ahead together for political stability and democratic exercise,” a Post report quoted Gyawali as saying.

Last Saturday, Oli and Deuba held a closed-door meeting. On Monday, Oli held a separate meeting with Dahal. Following this, Oli and Deuba sealed the deal.

Though Dahal has decided to go for a floor test, the numbers do not stack up in his favour at all. Of the 275-member House of Representatives, the Nepali Congress is the largest party with 88 seats. The CPN-UML has 79 seats while Dahal’s CPN-Maoist Centre is the third largest party with 32 seats. The Rastriya Swatantrata Party and the Janata Samajbadi Party have 21 and five seats respectively.

Meanwhile, in a separate development that will also put the odds further against Dahal is the Rastriya Swatantrata Party’s conclusion after an internal assessment that it would be counterproductive for the party to stay in coalitions led by older parties like the CPN-Maoist Centre and the CPN-UML.

The Rastriya Swatantrata Party’s general secretary Mukul Dhakal was cited as saying that “it was a mistake on the party to ally with the old guards of politics” which his party had heavily criticised in the past.

It is worth mentioning here that this is not the first time that Dahal is going for a floor test since the Leftist coalition came to power in March this year. When the Janata Samajbadi Party withdrew its support to the coalition, Dahal had gone for a floor test on May 20. He won comfortably winning 157 votes in the 275-member House. The Nepali Congress boycotted the process as it was holding protests within the parliament premises at the time against some of the government’s policies. This was the fourth time that Dahal had gone for a floor test after becoming Prime Minister on December 25, 2022.

So, this will be the fifth time that Dahal will be going for a floor test. The question is whether it will yield any results.

According to a source familiar with politics in Nepal, Dahal is hoping that Deuba would still agree to support him and that is why he is taking the floor test that will give him breathing space of 30 days.

“Dahal is likely to offer the post of Prime Minister to Oli,” the source told ETV Bharat. “Dahal is hoping that Oli will agree to a rotational position as prime minister similar to the arrangement with Deuba.”

Sanjiv Rai, author of the book Conflict, Education and People’s War in Nepal, pointed out that no government in Nepal has lasted more than one year since the end of the monarchy in 2008.

“People of Nepal are tired of the circulation of elites in Nepal’s politics,” Rai told ETV Bharat. “Dahal (who also goes by the nom de guerre Prachanda) emerged in the 1990s. Deuba and Oli are the older elites. What the people of Nepal want is a stable government.”

So, will Dahal be fifth-time lucky or fifth-time unlucky? Watch this space.