Terror-washing In Ontario: Decoding Canada's Miscalculation In Antagonizing India

Canada's deteriorating relationship with India will have significant long-term consequences, particularly as it seeks to navigate an increasingly complex international environment.

On October 14, India made a significant diplomatic move, recalling its most important diplomats from Canada, including its High Commissioner, following an escalating diplomatic spat. The immediate trigger? An ongoing investigation in Canada and expelling Canadian diplomats in Delhi concerning the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a known Khalistani separatist. The Trudeau administration has gone so far as to declare some of these Indian diplomats "persons of interest" in the investigation. This situation marks a historic low in the India-Canada relationship and threatens to severely damage diplomatic ties for years to come.

The central issue at hand is Canada's accusation that India might be involved in Nijjar's killing. However, India has steadfastly denied these allegations, insisting that Canada has yet to provide any credible evidence. From India's perspective, if such evidence existed, it should have been shared through diplomatic channels. Instead, the public posturing by Canada raises serious concerns about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's motivations, particularly given the delicate state of Canadian domestic politics.

Canadian Chargé d'Affaires Stewart Wheeler leaves from the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) after being summoned by the Ministry, in New Delhi on Oct 14, 2024. (ANI)

Trudeau’s Political Calculations

While the Khalistan movement in Punjab dwindled decades ago, its echoes have been kept alive in Canadian political circles, where some sections of the Sikh community continue to push for secessionist ambitions. This begs the question: why is this issue being amplified now? The answer likely lies in Canadian domestic politics, where Trudeau’s Liberal government relies heavily on the support of the New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh. Singh is a known supporter of Khalistani elements and has been a vocal critic of India on this issue. Given Trudeau's precarious political position, it is not far-fetched to suggest that his government's increasingly antagonistic stance toward India may be aimed at shoring up support from the NDP in order to maintain his grip on power.

To understand the current diplomatic crisis, one must delve into the state of Canadian politics. Trudeau's Liberal Party, in power since 2015, is struggling. His government currently holds just over 150 seats in Parliament and faces a rising challenge from the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre. Polls show the Conservatives leading the Liberals by a wide margin—45% to 23%. With elections on the horizon in 2025, Trudeau is under immense pressure to stabilize his political standing.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets Canadian PM Justin Trudeau at the G7 Outreach Summit, in Apulia on 15 Jun, 2024. (ANI)

Trudeau's declining popularity is driven by what political analysts in Canada are calling the "four I's": immigration, incumbency, identity, and inflation. Rising inflation has severely dented his government's economic credibility, while unchecked immigration has stirred concerns about Canada's changing demographic makeup. At one time, Canada was celebrated for its open-door immigration policy, but this is no longer seen as sustainable in the current political climate. Trudeau's attempt to deflect from these domestic crises by stirring up international controversy may well be an attempt to salvage his political career.

Khalistan issue a relic of a bygone era

Canada has long been a fertile ground for Khalistani activism, and the Sikh diaspora there holds considerable political clout. This influence has enabled Khalistani elements to consolidate their position within Canadian society, securing political representation and pushing for the recognition of their secessionist ambitions.

Members of Dal Khalsa protest over death of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, at the Golden Temple, in Amritsar on 29 Sep. 2023. (ANI)

The tragic irony is that the Khalistan issue is a relic of a bygone era, largely irrelevant to the younger Sikh population in Punjab, who have moved on. However, in Canada, the issue has been kept alive, with politicians like Jagmeet Singh amplifying the cause to secure votes from the Sikh diaspora. Trudeau’s government, keenly aware of this dynamic, has chosen to prioritize domestic political considerations over fostering a constructive relationship with India. In doing so, the Liberal Party has not only jeopardized bilateral ties but has also risked alienating a critical partner in the Indo-Pacific.

Direct attack on India's sovereignty

At the core of this dispute lies the issue of sovereignty. India, as a rising global power with ambitions for a larger role on the world stage, is unlikely to tolerate any external interference in its internal affairs, especially on the issue of secession. For India, the promotion of Khalistani separatism in Canada is seen as a direct attack on its sovereignty. New Delhi’s firm stance on this issue is not just about Nijjar’s killing—it is about sending a clear message that no country, no matter how distant, can provide a safe haven for those who seek to undermine India's territorial integrity.

View of the High Commission of Canada amidst tensions between India and Canada in New Delhi, Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. (PTI)

Canada, by allowing Khalistani elements to operate with impunity, has compromised its standing on the global stage. The deteriorating relationship with India will have significant long-term consequences, particularly as Canada seeks to navigate an increasingly complex international environment. While domestic politics often plays a significant role in shaping a country’s foreign policy, Canada has taken this to a new extreme.

Trudeau's actions have led to a severe diplomatic rift, with trade talks between India and Canada halted, and the possibility of future cooperation diminished. Canada’s miscalculation in antagonizing India, a key player in the global South and the Indo-Pacific, may lead to irreparable damage. With its ties to China already strained, Canada may have lost Asia.

As Trudeau faces elections in 2025, the question is not whether he will win or lose, but what kind of legacy he will leave behind by terror-washing back home. The damage done to India-Canada relations will be difficult to repair, and much of the momentum built over the years has now ground to a halt.

Read More