The Delhi Assembly Election result is not winner takes all as it may simply seem. The BJP which came on top has installed Rekha Gupta as its Chief Minister after 27 years in the national capital. Congress seems like it has become the butt of everyone’s jokes, as it has forfeited deposits in 67 of 70 Assembly segments it contested in the national capital. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) from its humble beginnings and staying in power for three terms including a 49-day outing, before being ousted from the power corridors by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Not to forget, the fledgling party could keep the election juggernaut, BJP, as a political pariah for about 13-years in the latter’s overall 27 years of alienation from power in the national capital. Every seat that the BJP gained from its previous 8 is from the ruling AAP. Yet, the party will come and sit in the Opposition space. Provided they manage to stay as one unit, having won 22 seats. Also, it will not have its national convenor and one of the founding members Arvind Kejriwal inside the Assembly, since its inception. He lost to Parvesh Verma, son of former Delhi Chief Minister Sahib Singh Verma, in the New Delhi seat. The voters have sent him thrice to the Assembly from this seat until 2020. Also, the “referendum” he called for against the Delhi excise policy case on which he was incarcerated with his cabinet and party colleagues, did not pan out the way he wanted it to.
The Numbers
The AAP’s vote share has settled slightly above 43.5 per cent. Two percentage points less than that of the saffron party. The latter has translated this meagre difference to more than double the number of seats in the Assembly with its final tally of 48 seats.
The vote share of BJP was 54.7 per cent in the 2024 general elections to the Lok Sabha. It was 24.3 per cent for AAP and 19 per cent for Congress. Both the AAP and Congress were in alliance.
For the BJP, it came down to 45.56 per cent, a more than nine per cent drop. While AAP improved it to 43.57 per cent in the 2025 polls, Congress' vote share has dwindled to 6.34 per cent, and it is over a 12 per cent dip from the 2024 numbers. An analysis of the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections shows the AAP was not able to retain its 53.8 per cent vote share it bagged back then. It dipped by nearly 10 per cent. The BJP vote share rose about seven per cent from 38.7 per cent. Therefore, the AAP is down, but not out.
This applies to Congress on a different note. It may sound discordant for some. While psephologists and election pundits blame Congress for materialising in BJP romping to power, the grand old party acted as a small cog in making several AAP candidates to bite the dust. Those who faced electoral defeat include the AAP co-founder and national convenor Arvind Kejriwal, who made this election a referendum on his honesty on a host of issues ranging from the purported Delhi Liquor Policy scam to the "Sheesh Mahal".
Also revealed in the process is the real strength of the Principal Opposition(read Congress) in the national capital. It was laid bare. The party’s vote share had seen a growth of under two per cent from the 2024 figures and a single digit figure.
'Battle' Bihar
Elections are due in Bihar, later this year, where the Nitish Kumar-led alliance is in power. It is a key state for the BJP to retain as it holds the key to the NDA’s regime in the Centre. Nitish’s JDU contested with the NDA in the previous Assembly elections and romped to power in 2020, for another straight term. The party polled 15.7 per cent and won 43 seats while its partner, BJP won 74 seats with a vote share of 19.8 per cent. Lalu Prasad Yadav-led RJD won 75 seats and finished as the single-largest party with a vote share of 23.5 per cent. Congress which had an abysmally low strike rate bagged 19 out of 70 seats it contested, with a vote share of 9.6 per cent. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the vote share of BJP and JDU went up marginally to 21 and 18.9 per cent. The RJD lost nearly one per cent in its vote share which stood at 22.6 per cent. Congress vote share was 9.4 per cent and the strike rate also improved to a third. Congress leader and Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi enjoys a good rapport with the Lalu’s family, which makes it easier for seat sharing. And BJP will have to tone down its regional expansion ambition as it needs the support of 12 JDU MPs in the Parliament.
‘Turf’ Punjab
Congress has been trying to use this as a handle to beat the AAP in Punjab, where the latter sent the grand-old-party packing. Congress and AAP, both constituents of the INDIA bloc, fought together in seven seats in Delhi while they took on each other in Punjab during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The party has started working on its grassroots levels where the AAP is in power. Its state unit leaders were making tall claims that there were about 30 AAP legislators in Punjab who were in touch with them and willing to cross over to the Congress. The party's central leadership had asked the local unit to brace for a snap poll. Meanwhile, Kejriwal had a huddle with AAP MLAs from the state. The elections are not due in Punjab till 2027 but Congress is expecting a snap poll. For the party, which has been facing successive electoral defeats, the opportunity might seem lucrative. Whether it would bear results the way they want remains to be seen.
Congress’ Poor Show
After Congress boasted of having stopped the BJP from returning to power on its own but with the support of its regional allies in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it suffered humiliation in Maharashtra and was stopped before accruing to power in Haryana. It could not capitalise on the anti-incumbency. It fought in the same alliance as that of the INDIA bloc in Maharashtra.
As for Haryana, the party did not share seats with its coalition but went alone and the results were the same. Shiv Sena (UBT), AAP, CPI(M), CPI and other constituents of the coalition had blamed the Congress for going solo. The party was defeated by a margin of less than one per cent. The BJP bagged 39.94 per cent while Congress lapped up 39.09 per cent.
Congress' Road Ahead
There are lamentations and justifications about both the AAP and Congress’ decision to fight separately. Most of them delve into fracturing the opposition unity, as BJP’s juggernaut election machinery rolls, outclassing every issue propped up by the opposition. The opposition appeared to be closing the gap, in terms of vote share. To save itself from humiliation, Congress should really look for the long term and should bear a national outlook, leaving the regional players to fight with their full potential. It plays second fiddle to DMK in Tamil Nadu and has successfully piggy-backed into the Assembly besides getting a third of Lok Sabha seats here. It should be clear in its strengths and understand the narrative of state elections is entirely different from that of the Lok Sabha polls. It remains to be seen whether Congress will learn from its past mistakes or continue its losing streak.
