West Asia comes with strategic surprises; India needs to be more cautious in its approach: Expert

ETV Bharat's Chandrakala Choudhury spoke to Meena Singh Roy, Research Fellow and Coordinator, West Asia Centre at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence, about the ongoing crisis in West Asia and how India should approach it.

New Delhi:The world is witnessing a war-like situation with Iran threatening to attack Israel after a strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria, sparking fears of an escalation of violence in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, in the light of the precarious situation, India's Ministry of External Affairs, on Friday issued an advisory urging all Indians to not travel to Iran or Israel till further notice. The MEA also requested all those, who are currently residing in Iran or Israel to get in touch with Indian Embassies there and register themselves.

The government's advisory comes amid escalating tensions between the two countries following a strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria 11 days ago. ​Iran blamed Israel for the strike and there have been apprehensions that Tehran may launch an attack on Israel soon. ETV Bharat spoke to a West Asia expert on the possible repercussions of the current crisis in the region.

Meena Singh Roy, Research Fellow and Coordinator, West Asia Centre at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, said, "As far as West Asia is concerned, we should always be prepared for strategic surprises and this is one such development according to me. As far as the conflict in Gaza is concerned, Iran is supporting it but has always taken a position that it will not get into a conventional war because they have seen enough damage for the conventional war which they had to fight for".

"India has a major stake when it comes to West Asia, whether it is Indian nationals in the Gulf and now commitment of sending Indian workers to Israel. Also, people who have decided to travel to Israel, are aware of the risk involved because the Conflict is not over yet. The escalation is basically driven by the acts of both Iran and Israel. If Iranians feel that there is an attack on their consulate, they will take it very seriously. How things are going to unfold remains to be seen," she said.

"We are in a very critical situation in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where the world is divided completely. Regionally too, countries are hedging and there is no consensus on any subject for that matter. India needs to be much more careful and cautious. As a measure of caution, the advisory is welcome but how things are going to unfold in the coming few days, is difficult to say," she explained.

According to the MEA advisory, "In view of the prevailing situation in the region, all Indians are advised not to travel to Iran or Israel till further notice. All those who are currently residing in Iran or Israel are requested to get in touch with the Indian Embassies there and register themselves. They are also requested to observe utmost precautions about their safety and restrict their movements to the minimum."

Meanwhile, 60+ Indian construction workers have already left for Israel in the first week of April as confirmed by the Israel embassy in New Delhi. It may be recalled that amid the ongoing Israel-Palestine war, earlier this year, Israel has sought for Indian workers for caregivers, construction, and agriculture sectors to replace with the Palestinian workers.

Commenting on the development, she said, "Israel did help India at a critical time during the Kargil war. So, it is at one level, a part of the strategic partnership and secondly, it's the people who willingly leave and are not forced to do so. It is a different equation that India shares with Israel."

On March 5 this year, an Indian national was killed and another two were injured when an anti-tank missile fired from Lebanon by Hezbollah militants struck an orchard near Israel's northern border community of Margaliot. Thereafter, India issued an advisory urging its nationals working in Israeli border areas to relocate to safe areas within the country due to prevailing situations.