Trump, Ukraine, China: Significance of Putin’s Upcoming Visit to India

Following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two visits to Russia, Russian President Putin is now set to visit India. ETV Bharat looks at this visit's importance.

New Delhi: On a day when Moscow signed a revised nuclear doctrine declaring that a conventional attack on Russia by any nation that is supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on Russia, the Kremlin has announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit India soon and the dates for this are being finalised.

“We welcomed Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi twice this year in our country,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said while virtual addressing an event organised by the Russian Sputnik news agency in New Delhi Tuesday. “We hope that soon we will figure out the dates of President Putin’s visit to India.”

In July this year, Modi and Putin had met in Moscow for the annual India-Russia bilateral summit. This was Modi’s first visit to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. India has been advocating a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict through dialogue and diplomacy.

And then, in August this year, Modi went to Ukraine in what was the first prime ministerial visit from India to that country since its formation in the aftermath of the breakup of the Soviet Union. During that visit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had said that he informed Modi that he would like India to host a peace summit on Ukraine. Ukraine, Zelenskyy said, was looking for a country in the Global South to host such a summit.

Modi and Putin then again held a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of this year’s BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) Summit hosted by Russia in the city of Kazan in Tatarstan last month.

It is in light of all this that the Kremlin’s announcement of Putin’s visit to India “soon” assumes significance. It means that the annual bilateral summit between the two countries, usually held at around yearly intervals, might this time be held within less than a year.

The tradition of annual summits began with the signing of the India-Russia Strategic Partnership Agreement in 2000 during Putin's visit to India. This agreement institutionalised high-level interactions between the two nations and emphasised their mutual commitment to strengthen ties. In 2010, the partnership was elevated to the level of a Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.

However, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this annual dialogue. Prior to this year’s July summit, the last annual summit was held way back in 2021. While the New Delhi-Moscow relationship remains strong, challenges like the impact of Western sanctions on Russia in the face of the Ukraine war, India’s increasing engagement with the West, and Russia’s growing proximity to China require careful management. Both sides recognise the importance of sustaining their partnership amidst a rapidly changing global order.

According to Harsh V Pant, Professor of International Relations with King’s India Institute at King’s College London and Vice-President (Studies and Foreign Policy) at the Observer Research Foundation think tank, Putin’s upcoming visit to India should also be seen in the light of Donald Trump assuming office as the President of the US in January next year.

“You see, Putin has not visited India since the start of the Ukraine war,” Pant told ETV Bharat. “With Modi visiting Russia twice this year, Putin feels that it is time to pay a reciprocal visit to India. And he wants to do that before Trump assumes office.”

He explained that once Trump comes to office, there will be a lot of uncertainties.

“That’s why Putin wants to come and lay out the roadmap of India-Russia ties in the age of Trump,” he said.

Pant also pointed out the China factor in connection with Putin’s upcoming visit.

“As of now, Russia and China are the closest of allies,” he said. “But once Trump comes to power, there will be a lot of pressure on China. In such a scenario, India will become very influential. Russia is not present in the Indo-Pacific landscape.”

India, along with the US, Japan and Australia are part of the Quad that is working for a free and open Indo-Pacific in the face of China’s hegemony in the region that stretches from the east coast of Japan to the east coast of Africa.

Trump, according to Pant, will also seek to end the Ukraine war.

“India’s mediation in resolving the Ukraine conflict has been very strategic,” he explained.

Robinder Sachdev, president of the New Delhi-based Imagindia think tank, explained that India has already done one full round of mediation to resolve the Ukraine conflict.

“Modi met Putin in Moscow in July for the annual bilateral summit, Zelenskyy in Kyiv in August, US President Joe Biden in Delaware in September for the Quad summit, Zelenskyy again on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September and then Putin again in Kazan last month for the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit,” Sachdev said. “That is one full loop completed.”

Explaining that India is now in the second round of negotiations, he pointed out that Trump has already said that he will end the Ukraine war within days of coming to office.

“The Trump team is already working on this. The efforts of both Modi and Trump will bring synergy to the process,” Sachdev said.

According to Pant, though India and Russia have traditionally maintained close ties, there are challenges as well.

“There is a lot to be done on the bilateral economic front,” he said.

Intensifying trade and economic relations has been identified as a priority area by both Modi and Putin. The two leaders had earlier set the targets of increasing bilateral investment to $50 billion and bilateral trade to $30 billion by 2025.

According to figures of the Department of Commerce, in FY 2023-24, bilateral trade reached an all-time high of $65.70 billion (total bilateral merchandise trade for FY 2023-24: $65.70 billion; India’s exports: $4.26 billion; and India’s imports: $61.44 billion). Major items of export from India include pharmaceuticals, organic chemicals, electrical machinery and mechanical appliances, iron and steel, while major items of import from Russia include oil and petroleum products, fertilisers, mineral resources, precious stones and metals, vegetable oils, etc.

Bilateral trade in services has remained stable during the last five years with trade balance in Russia’s favour. It amounted to $1.021 billion for the year 2021. Bilateral investments between the two countries remain strong and surpassed the previous target of $30 billion in 2018, leading to a revised target of $50 billion by 2025. The major bilateral investments by Russia in India are in the oil and gas, petrochemicals, banking, railways and steel sectors, while Indian investments in Russia are mainly in oil and gas and pharmaceuticals sectors.

Despite Western sanctions on Russia, India has continued to import crude oil from Russia at affordable prices. During the period January-September 2024, India’s imports of Russian crude averaged 1.7 million barrels per day, making the non-OPEC producer the country’s biggest supplier. The US was the fifth-largest supplier, accounting for 215,000 barrels per day in the same nine-month period, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS).

Meanwhile, in a related development, India has activated the Vladivostok-Chennai shipping route connecting India’s eastern coast with Russia’s Far East

“We have started the Vladivostok-Chennai route sometime back,” Sarbananda Sonowal, Union Minister of Ports, Shipping and Waterways, said earlier this week. “And it is picking up among exporters. The plan going forward is to connect other eastern ports like Paradip and Vizag as part of this corridor, thereby making it more viable for exporters.”

Hence, it is in the light of all this that a lot can be expected on the agenda of Putin’s upcoming visit to India.

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