Opinion: Myanmar junta signals elections: Is this a sham?

The Myanmar junta has eased some rules for registration of political parties while at the same time extending the state of emergency in the country. What does this indicate? Explores Aroonim Bhuyan.

New Delhi : Even as the military junta extended the state of emergency in Myanmar by six more months on Wednesday, the regime has eased rules for registration of political parties signaling that elections are likely to be held so that a civilian government can come to power.

The “easing of rules” announcement comes even as junta leader Min Aung Hlaing has come under pressure from all sides to resign in the face of the country’s military facing massive reverses since October last year when resistance forces launched a major offensive. According to a statement issued by the ruling State Administration Council, the number of members a political party should have to register has been brought down to 50,000 from 100,000. At the same time, the number of townships that these parties can operate in has been reduced.

“The wording ‘a total of 90 days’ mentioned in the Sub-Section (f) (of Section 5 of the Political Parties Registration Law) shall be substituted with the wording ‘the day when the Commission issues a notification at least 90 days ahead of the election day’, and the wording ‘at least 100,000 party members’ with the wording ‘at least 50,000 party members’,” the junta statement read.

“The wording ‘a total of 180 days’ mentioned in the Sub-Section (h) shall be substituted with the wording ‘the day when the Commission issues a notification at least 90 days ahead of the election day’ and the wording ‘at least half of all townships’ with the wording ‘at least one-third of all townships’.” However, the nature of the statement without election dates not being announced brings the question whether the whole exercise is a sham.

“The junta wants to demonstrate with this order that it is serious about holding elections and wants the political crisis to end,” K. Yhome, Senior Fellow at the Shillong-based think tank Asian Confluence, told ETV Bharat. “This is the message the junta wants to send to the international community.”

The state of emergency in Myanmar was declared on February 1, 2021, after a military coup deposed democratically elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The military cited many irregularities in the 2020 elections in which Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) emerged victorious. After the coup, the military initially said that fresh elections would be held a year later but then said that these will take place in August 2023. However, the junta has been extending the state of emergency every six months, the latest being on Wednesday.

According to observers, the junta’s latest easing of threshold limit of political party membership may be a bid to put up proxy parties for the elections, the dates for which have not been announced yet. Then comes the issue of reduction of the number of townships in which the parties have presence.

Myanmar has experienced widespread violence since the military ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021. However, the junta has been suffering from stunning reverses ever since the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched Operation 1027 in October last year.

The Alliance of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA) was formed in June 2019. The group rose to prominence in 2023 while resisting the Myanmar junta in the wake of the 2021 Myanmar coup. The groups comprising the Alliance were silent about the coup initially, but released a statement reaffirming the Alliance’s existence in March 2021. During the Myanmar civil war, the group fought mainly in Rakhine State and northern Shan State. On October 27, 2023, the Alliance launched Operation 1027, an offensive against the junta in northern Shan State.

The AA is an ethnic armed organisation based in Rakhine State (Arakan). Founded on April 10, 2009, the AA is the military wing of the United League of Arakan (ULA). The MNDAA is an armed resistance group in the Kokang region. The army has existed since 1989, having been the first one to sign a ceasefire agreement with the then Burmese government. The ceasefire lasted for about two decades.

The TNLA is the armed wing of the Palaung State Liberation Front (PSLF). The TNLA is known for its opposition to the drug trade, conducting operations where they actively destroy poppy fields, heroin refineries and meth labs. The TNLA claims that it arrests opium smugglers regularly and the narcotics seized are publicly burned on special occasions to deter drug trade.

Since the launch of Operation 1027, the Three Brotherhood Alliance captured many townships and over 400 army outposts. At the same time, almost 800,000 people have been newly displaced, out of whom 164,000 have either returned to their places of origin or fled for a second time across the northwest, northeast, southeast and Rakhine State.

According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), around 59,200 individuals from Myanmar’s northwest region have sought protection since February 2021 in India. Out of this population, some 5,500 individuals are in New Delhi and have registered with UNHCR. Since November 2023, more than 6,500 people have arrived in the Champhai and Siaha districts of Mizoram and 2,000 people in Manipur’s Kamjong District.

This is why the latest developments in Myanmar will have implications for India. Though Home Minister Amit Shah has announced that the Free Movement Regime along the border with Myanmar under India’s Act East Policy will be suspended, this has been opposed by groups both in Manipur and Mizoram as well as in Nagaland.

According to Yhome, the idea of reducing the number of townships in which political parties are active might be a ploy to ensure that towns that are in control of resistance forces might be kept out of the elections for security reasons. This will mean that areas dominated by the Bamars, the majority ethnic group in Myanmar supportive of the junta, will get the chance to come to power.

“The junta is well aware that the popular sentiment is against them,” Yhome said. “So, it is trying to ensure that a popular party like the NLD does not come up against them.”

But the fact of the matter is that though Western powers, the UN and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have said that they would not recognise elections held under the junta, the NLD leadership believes that it will be wrong to stay out of the electoral process. As such, the NLD leaders may well take advantage of the easing of rules for political party registration and form new parties. In that case, the majority of the population will come up in support of such parties. This will also ensure what the junta does not want – the NLD does not come up in a new form.

Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing is under pressure from all sides, including his own military, to step down.

According to observers, though the rumbling within the regime against its leadership is not new, this has certainly grown in recent times. There are various reasons for this. First, there are some factions within the armed forces who are against military rule itself. Then, there are some who are against committing heavy atrocities on civilians.

There are also some factions within the armed forces who have become disillusioned with the military rule because of the economic slowdown in the country. However, by announcing the state of emergency, Min Aung Hlaing has ensured that he can stay in power for at least six more months.