Muizzu says India Maldives’ closest ally, seeks debt repayment relief

In a sudden turnaround from his anti-India foreign policy steps, Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu has now asserted that the largest country in South Asia is the closest ally of the Indian Ocean archipelago nation. He also expressed hope that India will provide relief in repayment of debts that his country has taken. Will New Delhi be impressed by Muizzu’s comments given his anti-India and pro-China stance? An expert explains to ETV Bharat that Muizzu will have to walk the talk.

New Delhi: In what can be viewed as a sudden turnaround from his pronounced foreign policy steps against India, Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu has said that India will continue to be the closest ally of his country and expressed the hope that New Delhi will provide debt repayment relief to the Indian Ocean archipelago nation.

In his first-ever exclusive interview with a news outlet after assuming office as President in November last year, Muizzu also claimed that he had never taken any action or made any statement that would affect ties between the Maldives and India. “It is not nice to dismiss or disregard aid from one country to another as useless,” the Edition.mv news website quoted Muizzu as telling Dhivehi news outlet Mihaaru.

He also expressed the hope that India will accommodate debt relief measures in the repayment of the hefty loans that his country’s consecutive governments have taken over the years. “The conditions we have inherited are such that there are very large loans taken from India,” Muizzu said. “Hence, we are holding discussions to explore leniencies in the repayment structure of these loans. Instead of halting any ongoing projects, proceed with them at speed. So, I see no reason for any adverse effects (on Maldives-India relations).”

The Maldivian government under former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih had taken loans amounting to $1.4 million (MVR22 million). Together with this, the amount owed by the Maldives to India by the end of last year stood at MVR6.2 billion (around $401 million), according to Edition.mv.

Muizzu said that he is discussing with the Indian government to explore options to repay the loans to the best of the Maldives’ economic capabilities. He expressed his hope that India would facilitate debt relief measures in the repayment of these loans. “President Dr Mohamed Muizzu stated that India will continue to remain the Maldives’ closest ally and emphasised that there was no question about it,” the report stated.

So, why is Muizzu making this sudden turnaround in terms of ties between the Maldives and India? After all, he had won last year’s presidential election on a pronounced anti-India plank. He ran an ‘India Out’ campaign in which he called for the withdrawal of some Indian military personnel present in his country. These personnel, numbering less than 100, are primarily involved in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief work in the Indian Ocean archipelago nation. However, after assuming office, Muizzu made a formal request to India to withdraw these personnel. It has now been agreed that these military personnel will be replaced by civilian Indian personnel by May 10. The first batch of these personnel deployed across three platforms was replaced earlier this month.

In his interview with Mihaaru, Muizzu stated that, in seeking the replacement of the Indian security personnel, his aim was to encourage the Maldives to become self-sufficient. He further explained that this was why his government had introduced air ambulances, purchased military drones to protect the country’s territorial waters and planned to procure more ships for the Coast Guard.

“One has to view this (Muizzu’s comments about ties with India) a bit cautiously,” Harsh V Pant, Professor of International Relations with King's India Institute at King’s College London and Vice-President (Studies and Foreign Policy) at the Observer Research Foundation think tank, told ETV Bharat. “Muizzu has a history of antagonising India. He took it, too, far in showing his tilt towards China.”

Among the series of anti-India foreign policy steps that Muizzu took since assuming office, the Maldives, in December last year, decided not to renew a hydrography agreement with India citing national security concerns and the safeguarding of sensitive information. The hydrographic survey agreement was signed in 2019 during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the Maldives. Under the agreement, India was allowed to conduct a comprehensive study of the island nation’s territorial waters, which includes reefs, lagoons, coastlines, ocean currents and tide levels.

And then again, the Maldives decided to allow a Chinese vessel to enter its territorial waters ostensibly to do research work. This decision came despite pressure from the Indian government and concerns raised by various quarters about the vessel being a “spy vessel”. India has strongly been protesting the repeated visits by Chinese vessels to the waters of the south Indian Ocean, a region New Delhi considers to be under its sphere of influence.

Then, in early January this year, a political row broke out between India and the Maldives after Prime Minister Modi visited the union territory of Lakshadweep in the Arabian Sea and promoted it on social media as an exciting tourism destination. Though Modi did not mention any other country in his comments, some Maldivian politicians took it as the Lakshadweep islands being showcased as a rival to the tourism industry in the Indian Ocean archipelago nation. They made disparaging remarks against the Prime Minister and racist comments against Indians in general.

This sparked a social media backlash from Indians, including entertainment world celebrities and sports stars. Many opposition leaders and tourism industry bodies in the Maldives also criticised the Muizzu government for this. Following this, three junior ministers in the Maldives government were suspended.

Soon after the row, Muizzu went on a nearly week-long visit to China. This is a break from the practice followed by his three immediate democratically elected predecessors - Ibrahim Solih, Abdulla Yameen and Mohamed Nasheed - who had made India the destination of their first state visit after assuming office. In fact, after assuming office in November last year, Muizzu made Turkey the destination of his first state visit.

Muizzu further upped the ante against New Delhi by targeting the health sector. Till now, hospitals empanelled under Aasandha, the Maldives’ universal health insurance scheme, for overseas treatment of Maldivian patients were restricted to just India and Sri Lanka, the majority of them in India. The largest amount of money disbursed by Aasandha to foreign hospitals went to Indian hospitals. Over Rs 7.5 billion has been disbursed to hospitals in India over the past 10 years.

Now, following directives issued by Muizzu, the state-owned Aasandha Company, which acts as a third-party claims administrator, has started work to expand the scope of overseas treatment for Maldivians beyond India and Sri Lanka. The company is now in talks with Thailand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Both countries are leading medical care providers but at a relatively higher cost.

As part of New Delhi’s Neighbourhood First Policy, the Maldives is strategically significant to India because of its location in the Indian Ocean. India and the Maldives share ethnic, linguistic, cultural, religious and commercial links steeped in antiquity and enjoy close, cordial and multi-dimensional relations. However, regime instability in the Maldives since 2008 has posed significant challenges to the India-Maldives relationship, particularly in the political and strategic spheres.

Although India continues to be an important partner of the Maldives, New Delhi cannot afford to be complacent over its position and must remain attentive to the developments in the Maldives. India must play a key role within the Indo-Pacific security space to ensure regional security in South Asia and surrounding maritime boundaries. China’s strategic footprint in India’s neighbourhood has increased. The Maldives has emerged as an important ‘pearl’ in China’s ‘String of Pearls’ construct in South Asia.

Pant said that Muizzu is now realising that India has many options other than the Maldives to ensure secure security in the Indian Ocean region. Only last month, Modi and his Mauritian counterpart Pravind Jugnauth inaugurated a slew of projects at the Agalega Islands in Mauritius. India will now be able to expand its maritime security footprint and naval presence in the western Indian Ocean.

The projects inaugurated are a new airstrip and St James Jetty, along with six community development projects. According to a statement issued by the Prime Minister’s Office, the inauguration of these projects is a testimony to the robust and decades-old development partnership between India and Mauritius and will fulfil the demand for better connectivity between mainland Mauritius and Agalega, strengthen maritime security and foster socio-economic development.

Though the inauguration of the projects is being seen as a testimony to the robust development partnership between India and Mauritius, the real deal is that New Delhi has now a strategic maritime stronghold in the western Indian Ocean region. According to Pant, given the tilt towards China that Muizzu has taken, India will tend to ignore him.

“He is changing his tune to suit his political environment at home,” he said. The recent inaugural session of the Maldives’ parliament Majlis, emblematic of democratic governance, mirrored the deeper societal divisions in the atoll nation. With just 24 out of 87 MPs present and a significant 56 members, including key figures from the former ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and the newly formed Democrats, boycotting the event, it underscored a pivotal moment for Muizzu’s leadership, which now hangs in the balance.

Central to the opposition’s grievances is Muizzu’s steadfast alignment with China - a geopolitical shift resonating throughout the Indian Ocean region. Muizzu’s courting of Beijing, characterised by grand infrastructure projects and economic incentives, has sparked concerns about national sovereignty and strategic independence.

The once-distant prospect of impeachment now looms ominously, overshadowing Muizzu’s presidency. Empowered by popular backing and fueled by perceived democratic norms erosion, the MDP and the Democrats are mobilising to oust Muizzu from office. The gathering of signatures for a vote of no confidence is not merely symbolic defiance but a tangible reflection of public dissatisfaction. “For New Delhi, one or two statements by Muizzu won’t make any difference,” Pant said. “He has to walk the talk. He cannot take India for granted.”