Bangladesh Foreign Minister's Visit to India: Issues Likely to Be on the Agenda

New Bangladesh Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud will be making his first bilateral visit to India after assuming office. What are the issues that are likely to come up for discussion during the visit? ETV Bharat’s Aroonim Bhuyan writes.

New Delhi: Cooperation among BIMSTEC nations, regional connectivity, the conflict in Myanmar, the Rohingya refugee crisis, China’s growing influence in the region and security in the Indo-Pacific are likely to be on the agenda during discussions when new Bangladesh Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud comes to India on his first bilateral visit after assuming office.

“At the invitation of External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, Foreign Minister of Bangladesh Hasan Mahmud will visit India from February 7 to 9,” the External Affairs Ministry said in a statement. “This will be his first bilateral visit abroad as Foreign Minister after swearing in of the new Government in Bangladesh. The visit reflects the high importance and priority both countries attach to their bilateral relationship.”

According to the statement, Jaishankar and Mahmud will review the progress in wide-ranging areas of bilateral relations and chart out the agenda for future engagement. “They will also exchange views on sub-regional, regional and multilateral issues of common interest,” the statement read.

An issue of sub-regional interest is cooperation among the member countries of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). The BIMSTEC, which came into existence in 1997, comprises seven countries lying in the littoral and adjacent areas of the Bay of Bengal--Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand--membership in the bloc allows India to engage more with the extended neighbourhood in Southeast Asia under New Delhi's Neighbourhood First Policy via northeastern India. This will also help keep in check China’s growing influence in the region through Chinese President Xi Jinping's pet Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project.

“A key part of the BIMSTEC cooperation is to improve regional connectivity between Bangladesh and India’s northeastern region besides Bhutan and Nepal under the BBIN initiative,” K Yhome, Senior Fellow at the Shillong-based Asian Confluence think tank, told ETV Bharat. “These sub-regional groupings are important for India’s development cooperation with Bangladesh.”

Both India and Bangladesh are parties to the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) Motor Vehicle Agreement. The Agreement was conceived after the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) failed to agree on a regional motor vehicles agreement at a summit in Nepal in 2014, mainly because of opposition from Pakistan. India, Bangladesh and Bhutan have signed the agreement. Bhutan, though, has temporarily opted out pending parliamentary approval.

Operationalising the MVA by concluding the passenger and the cargo protocol will help realise the full potential of trade and people-to-people connectivity between the BBIN countries by fostering greater sub-regional cooperation. The Asian Development Bank has supported the project as part of its South Asian Subregional Economic Cooperation Programme and has been requested to prioritise about 30 road projects worth billions of dollars. Connectivity, they say, is the key to development. Connectivity also is the key to regional security.

Meanwhile, with India helping Bhutan to develop the Gelephu Smart City, the Himalayan kingdom can also get access to the Bay of Bengal via India’s northeastern region and Bangladesh. An important element in terms of connectivity is boosting power transmission among the countries. According to media reports, Nepal has proposed the tariff to be charged on power to be exported to Bangladesh as the two sides inched closer to a deal for the first-ever trading of electricity. The two countries have already agreed in principle for the export of 40 MW of electricity from Nepal to Bangladesh. Since Indian territory lies between Nepal and Bangladesh, both sides must take India on board in the energy trade.

A major regional issue that is expected to come up during the discussions between Jaishankar and Mahmud is the conflict in Myanmar. Myanmar has experienced widespread violence since the military ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021. However, the junta has been suffering from stunning reverses ever since the Brotherhood Alliance launched Operation 1027 in October last year.

The Alliance comprising three ethnic armed organisations was formed in June 2019. The group rose to prominence in 2023 in resisting the Myanmar Junta in the wake of the 2021 Myanmar coup. The three armed groups were silent about the coup initially, but released a statement reaffirming the Alliance’s existence in March 2021. During the Myanmar civil war, the group fought mainly in Rakhine State and northern Shan State. On October 27, 2023, the Alliance launched Operation 1027, an offensive against the junta in northern Shan State. This has led to an influx of refugees and armed forces personnel from Myanmar to both India and Bangladesh.

“Both India and Bangladesh have suffered from the fallout of the conflict in Myanmar,” Yhome said. The Rohingya refugee crisis in Myanmar is another matter of common concern for both India and Bangladesh.

“Mahmud’s visit will allow both sides to share notes,” Yhome pointed out. It is worth mentioning that, ahead of Mahmud’s upcoming visit, India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval made an unannounced visit to Bangladesh last weekend during which he met Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and other senior officials and discussed issues of strategic significance.

Another regional issue that is expected to figure in Jaishankar-Mahmud discussions is the growing influence of China in South Asia. India has been repeatedly raising concerns about Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean, especially in the territorial waters of Sri Lanka and the Maldives, a region India considers to be under its sphere of influence.

However, amid deteriorating ties between India and the Maldives, the Indian Ocean atoll nation has allowed a Chinese “research vessel” to dock at one of its ports. On the other hand, Sri Lanka, paying heed to India’s concerns to India’s concerns, has put a moratorium on all foreign research vessels from entering its territorial waters. At the same time, Sri Lanka welcomed the Indian Navy submarine INS Karanj to dock at one of its ports last week sending a strong signal to China.

“Bangladesh is a major coastal nation in the Bay of Bengal region,” Yhome said. “Just as it did through Sri Lanka, India is likely to send a similar message to China through Bangladesh.” Coming to multilateral issues, the issue of Bangladesh playing a role in ensuring a free and fair Indo-Pacific is likely to come up for discussion during Mahmud’s visit. India, along with the US, Japan and Australia, is part of the Quad that is working for a free and open Indo-Pacific in the face of China’s belligerence in the region that stretches from the east coast of Japan to the east coast of Africa.

“New Delhi would want Bangladesh to play a larger role in New Delhi’s vision for the Indo-Pacific,” Yhome said. “India is likely to impress upon Bangladesh that it will be in their interest to work with the Quad.” It is worth mentioning that US President Joe Biden, in a congratulatory message to Hasina after she won the general elections last month, stated that Washington was committed to partnering with Bangladesh in ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific.