Trouble Brewing In Bangladesh Over Holding Of Fresh Elections: Implications For India

India will be concerned about the latest political developments in Bangladesh in terms of security in the neighbourhood.

New Delhi: In what can be seen as a major security threat in India’s immediate neighbourhood, tensions are escalating in Bangladesh as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as the Chief Adviser, remain at odds over the roadmap for fresh parliamentary elections.

Following the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the BNP is pushing for a swift election process under its preferred framework, while Yunus’s administration advocates for reforms to ensure free and fair polls. The growing discord threatens to plunge the country deeper into political uncertainty, with protests and counter-protests fuelling an already volatile atmosphere.

In a series of developments this week, the BNP, the main opposition party that boycotted the parliamentary elections held in Bangladesh in January this year which saw Hasina’s Awami League party coming back to power for the fourth time, is alleging that the Yunus government is trying to subterfuge the country’s electoral process.

Asaduzzaman Ripon, vice-chairman of the BNP, has said the next election must be held by 2025 to establish an elected administration. “The current interim government is the weakest in history,” Ripon was quoted as saying by the Dhaka Tribune during an event in Dhaka on Wednesday. “With such a weak government in power, the country’s independence and sovereignty could be at risk, the law and order situation may worsen, and economic instability may arise. So, an elected government accountable to the people is essential.”

Then again, on Thursday, senior BNP leader Nazrul Islam Khan said that the advisers in the current interim government are not even worthy of being considered opponents to politicians.

“Why should they (advisers) criticise established political parties and make comments about them?” another Tribune report quoted Islam Khan as asking during a discussion at the Dhaka Reporters’ Unity (DRU) organised by the Rajshahi University Nationalist Ex-Student Association (RUNESA). “Do they regard the political parties as their opponents? We do not consider them our opponents, as they are not worthy of being our opponents. We engage in politics, but they do not. So why should they be our opponents?”

He also criticised Syeda Rizwana Hasan, Environment Adviser in the interim government, for her remark that politicians have done nothing for the country over the past 53 years. At the same event, in what can be seen as a sinister development, BNP senior joint secretary general Ruhul Kabir Rizvi alleged that a “state intelligence agency” is attempting to form a political party.

“If state intelligence agencies decide who will be elected, then what value will there be to these sacrifices?” the Daily Star quoted Rizvi as questioning. He said that doubts are growing as to whether there are subtle efforts within the government to weaken and break the BNP.

The BNP’s demand for early elections comes after Chief Adviser Yunus, during a national broadcast earlier this month, said that polls will be held in late 2025 or early 2026 after implementation of reforms in the electoral process.

Bangladesh descended into political instability following the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. Hasina’s removal from power came after a students’ revolution that snowballed into a mass uprising against what people called her authoritarian style of governance. Her decade-and-a-half-long rule ended abruptly, leaving a political vacuum that exacerbated existing divisions and triggered a struggle for control.

The immediate aftermath of Hasina’s ouster saw the formation of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, a figure respected internationally for his contributions to microfinance but viewed with mixed opinions domestically. Tasked with steering the country toward a free and fair election, Yunus’s administration proposed sweeping electoral reforms, including the overhaul of the Election Commission and the introduction of new measures to ensure transparency and accountability. However, these proposals quickly became a source of contention, particularly with BNP.

The BNP then demanded an immediate election under a caretaker framework that it believed would guarantee its return to power. The party accused Yunus’s government of deliberately delaying the election and acting under the influence of external forces to curb its political resurgence. Yunus, however, defended his administration’s approach, emphasising the need for structural reforms to prevent a repeat of past electoral controversies and to restore public trust in the democratic process.

With Hasina taking refuge in India, relations between the New Delhi and Dhaka have since been tense. The Yunus government has now sought the extradition of Hasina through a note verbale to the External Affairs Ministry in New Delhi. While confirming that it has received the note verbale, the Ministry stated that it had no further comment to offer.

So, what does this political flux in Bangladesh mean for stability and security in India’s immediate neighbourhood? According to an Indian expert on the politics and economy of Bangladesh who spoke to ETV Bharat on the condition of anonymity, the leaders of the students’ movement that eventually led to the ouster of Hasina were actually trained in madrassas in Bangladesh run by the pan-Islamist and fundamentalist organisation Hizb ut-Tahrir.

“These students are anti-India and anti-Hindu and get funding from international sources,” the expert said. “They have brought in Yunus, who is also anti-India, to head the interim government.”

The expert also pointed out that all anti-India people in Bangladesh who were behind bars have been pardoned after the interim government assumed power.

The person cited above said that this will pose a major security threat to India as the Hizb ut-Tahrir has spread its wings to the Indian states of Assam and West Bengal. Though the districts in West Bengal bordering Bangladesh like Murshidabad, Malda, North 24 Parganas and South 24 Parganas with Muslim majority population have enjoyed communal harmony, there are now tensions with the Hizb ut-Tahrir trying to extend its influence in these areas.

“These Hizb ut-Tahrir-trained students who led the anti-Hasina movement have no interest in Bangladesh’s economy,” the expert explained. “They want to contest the next elections and that is why they are trying to delay the process. For that, they want time to organise themselves. They don’t want even the BNP, the Jamaat-e-Islami or the Awami League to contest the elections. Yunus is not going to hold elections soon.”

Basically, this is what explains the BNP’s allegation of a state intelligence agency trying to form a political party. Coming back to the BNP’s demand for early elections, what does it mean for India given that whenever that party was in power, it did not have the best relations with New Delhi?

“The BNP has given a surprise,” Sharin Shajahan Naomi, Bangladeshi academic and political observer, told ETV Bharat. “It has shown signs that it has changed. Though it had the scope to take revenge against forces opposed to it, it did not do so.” Naomi said that there are a number of Hindu leaders among the BNP’s ranks.

“It is time for the BNP to show that it is a secular party,” she said. “That way, if it comes to power, the relationship with India will be much better.” Earlier this month, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri visited Dhaka to participate in the annual India-Bangladesh foreign office consultations. It was the first high-level bilateral visit between the two countries after the interim government came to power in Bangladesh.

Following the consultations, Misri told the media in Dhaka that India desires a positive, constructive, and mutually beneficial relationship with Bangladesh. “We have always seen in the past and we continue to see in the future this relationship as a people-centric and people-oriented relationship; one that has the benefit of all the people as its central motivational force,” he said.

Now, given the differences arising between the BNP and the Yunus-led interim government amid fundamentalist forces also in play, it remains to be seen how India-Bangladesh relations move forward.