New Delhi:As the Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly elections 2024 concluded on Wednesday, all eyes were fixed on exit polls even as the ECI announcing the results will be counting the votes for both states on Saturday. Now the question is, are exit polls accurate? Can they predict election results accurately even before votes are counted? The answer to this is “it's complicated.”
Question Of Accuracy
Exit polls are surveys done soon after voters cast their votes and leave polling booths. This is usually seen as an accurate glance into the winners. However, the accuracy of these polls is not certain due to various factors like errors in decisions during sampling, bias of voters, and social desirability bias.
The exit polls faced several debacles over the years, embarrassing the pollsters.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, for instance, exit polls underestimated the BJP-led NDA as reflected fewer seats than its actual seat count.
Although exit polls mostly remained accurate in some cases previously but couldn't reflect the actual outcome. The predictions for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections also showed NDA victory but did not account for the scope of the sweep.
Exit polls are therefore a useful tool for gaining an earlier understanding of polling patterns, but their accuracy cannot be regarded as 100% accurate because they are estimations rather than conclusive findings.
How Are Exit Polls Prepared?
The preparation of exit polls is not simple but cumbersome as it follows a systematic process like sampling, the formation of questionnaires, data collection and reporting, data processing, and the declaration of results.
Know About Sampling: The agencies or media houses that wish to conduct an exit poll prepare a sampling of the areas and votes. Later, they choose diverse polling stations or booths to include and reflect based on multiple areas and regions.
Development of Questionnaire: Apart from their political choices, voters are asked about their background, like demography, and their inspirations and influences.
Collection of Data: The next step is that trained personnel gather responses from voters and record them carefully in a given format while keeping the identities of voters anonymous.
Processing of Data: After collecting the data, its compilation starts, during which it is arranged based on the areas, different voter turnouts, and demographic variations.
Results and Reporting: After the compilation, the projections are sent to the media with a margin of error.
These polls provide crucial awareness of voters’ behaviour and reflect on possible trends among various areas and regions. It also delves into possible factors that would shape the choices. Journalists often use exit polls to fine-tune their analysis and compile their political reports, while political parties get a chance to revisit their plans.
Read More
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