Bhopal (Madhya Pradesh): As the political battleground in Madhya Pradesh heats up, the state is on the cusp of witnessing a closely contested election that could potentially redefine its political landscape. With the memories of the dramatic twists and turns of the 2018 elections still fresh, the state's 230-member assembly is gearing up for another showdown. The electoral battle in the state will take place on November 17, 2023.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (Congress) are locked in fierce competition, each vying to secure a majority and claim the throne of the state government. In this high-stakes political theatre, promises, policies, and strategies are taking centre stage as both parties strive to win over the hearts and votes of the people.
Madhya Pradesh, often referred to as the heart of India, is a state with a rich historical and geographical significance. This central Indian state was formed on November 1, 1956, by merging seventeen districts of Mahakoshal, two districts of Bhopal, eight districts of Vindhya Pradesh, and sixteen districts of Madhya Bharat. Initially comprising 43 districts, Madhya Pradesh underwent several administrative changes over the years.
In 1998, sixteen more districts were added to the state, expanding its territorial boundaries. The Chhattisgarh region, comprising 16 districts, was separated from Madhya Pradesh to form a new state on November 1, 2000, following the Madhya Pradesh Reorganization Act. In 2003, three additional districts - Burhanpur, Ashoknagar, and Anooppur - were established.
Madhya Pradesh currently covers a total geographical area of 308,000 square kilometres. The state is bordered by five neighbouring states: Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, and Uttar Pradesh. In 2001-02, the net area sown was 149.62 lakh hectares, while 14.99 lakh hectares were designated as permanent pastures, grazing lands, and miscellaneous tree crops.
With a population of 60,385,118 including 31,456,873 males and 28,928,245 females, this tribal-dominated state is considered to be one of the most underprivileged states in the country. With a Scheduled Caste population of more than 15 per cent and a Scheduled tribe nearly 20 percent, the per capita income in Madhya Pradesh stood at Rs. 11,438, at current prices, which was below the all-India per capita income of Rs. 17,978 for the same period. Madhya Pradesh continues to be classified as a low-income state, sharing this classification with states like Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, and Bihar.
The 2018 political rollercoaster:
The 2018 elections were nothing short of thrilling. Congress secured 114 seats in the 230-member assembly, just two short of an outright majority. Simultaneously, the BJP managed to secure 109 seats, showcasing a neck-and-neck battle. Notably, the BJP garnered 41% of the votes, narrowly surpassing the Congress's 40.9% vote share.
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) secured two seats, with five seats going to other smaller parties and independents. This tight contest culminated in the formation of a Congress-led government with the support of BSP, Samajwadi Party (SP), and other allies.
In the 2018 Madhya Pradesh assembly elections, the Congress managed to break a 15-year dry spell by forming the government in the state. Kamal Nath assumed the role of Chief Minister. However, this government's tenure was short-lived, lasting a mere 15 months. In a dramatic turn of events, the BJP returned to power, with Shivraj Singh Chouhan taking the oath as the Chief Minister on March 23, 2020.
Key issues in 2023:
As the 2023 elections approach, both the BJP and Congress are acutely aware of the issues that will dominate the electoral discourse and sway the voters.
Addressing youth dissatisfaction and unemployment:
Youth dissatisfaction and the vexing issue of unemployment loom large on the political horizon. After the 2018 elections, recruitment processes for government jobs faced prolonged legal challenges related to reservation policies, leaving many young job-seekers disillusioned. Daily protests became the norm as unemployed individuals voiced their grievances.
However, the government has initiated efforts to quell this anger. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan announced the ambitious goal of providing one lakh government jobs to the state's youth. This promise seeks to resonate with the sizable youth demographic and alleviate unemployment concerns.
BJP's bid for tribal and women voters:
In a bid to broaden its voter base, the BJP is strategically targeting tribal and women voters. On Tribal Pride Day, the state government implemented PESA rules, empowering Gram Sabhas to have a say in the regulations concerning natural resources in forested areas. This move aims to strengthen the party's appeal to tribal communities.
Additionally, the BJP unveiled the "Ladli Brahmin Yojana" on March 5, a scheme designed to attract women voters. Under this initiative, women with an annual income of less than Rs 2.5 lakh and holding less than five acres of land will receive a monthly stipend of one thousand rupees. This direct cash incentive scheme has the potential to significantly sway female voters in favour of the BJP, as experts predict.
Congress's counter strategies:
Not to be outdone, the Congress is actively formulating its own arsenal of promises to woo voters.
Empowering women:
Building on the popularity of the Ladli Brahmin Yojana, the Congress has pledged to provide women with an annual grant of Rs 18,000 if the party comes to power. This bold move aims to outshine the BJP's offering and win the support of women voters.
Economic relief:
Congress is also positioning itself as a party that can alleviate the economic burden on households. The promise of providing LPG cylinders for Rs 500 is a significant part of this strategy. The party hopes to appeal to families grappling with rising inflation and the high cost of essential commodities.
Ticket distribution and political dynamics:
The distribution of tickets for the upcoming elections is a crucial aspect of the political chessboard. In a departure from conventional practices, the BJP is favoring experienced candidates, including sitting Members of Parliament and Union Ministers, over local-level leaders and prominent party figures. This strategic move aims to leverage the influence and experience of seasoned politicians in a bid to secure victory.
Notably, nine Members of Parliament have been granted BJP tickets for 79 seats, a departure from past election strategies. This approach aims to maximize the impact of influential leaders and bolster the party's electoral chances.
Prioritising the recovery of lost seats:
Leading up to the upcoming elections, the Congress party is putting in extra effort to regain the constituencies it lost in the previous election cycle. In the last election, the Vindhya region did not favour Congress, instead choosing to support the BJP. Consequently, Congress is now diligently working to reclaim its lost support in this region. The responsibility of revitalizing the party's presence in Vindhya has been entrusted to the senior party leader and former Chief Minister, Digvijay Singh, who is making frequent visits to the area.
Impact of AAP
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is set to contest elections on all 230 seats in the state and will announce its candidate for the Chief Minister's position. In Madhya Pradesh, Arvind Kejriwal has pledged to deliver free electricity, mirroring his successes in Delhi and Punjab if elected to power. Political observers who are familiar with the state's dynamics believe that AAP's organization is particularly strong in the Sidhi-Singrauli region, where the party is poised to perform well.
However, AAP may encounter challenges in areas where its organization is lacking. The impact of whose votes AAP garners in the elections will also significantly influence the final results. Therefore, addressing the organizational gaps in various regions is crucial for the party's electoral prospects.
Conclusion:
Madhya Pradesh is poised for an intense political battle as the BJP and Congress vie for supremacy in the upcoming elections. With the scars of the 2018 electoral cliff-hanger still fresh, both parties are leaving no stone unturned in their quest for victory. While addressing youth dissatisfaction and unemployment remains a pressing concern, direct cash incentives, women-centric schemes, and economic relief measures have taken centre stage in the electoral discourse.
As the countdown to the elections begins, the people of Madhya Pradesh are watching closely, hopeful that their chosen leaders will deliver on their promises and steer the state towards a brighter future. The outcome of this political saga will undoubtedly shape the destiny of Madhya Pradesh for years to come.
