Kerala: The last local body elections in Kerala saw something of a seismic shift in the electoral politics of the state. Home to two huge minority communities that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) banked on, one of them seems to be leaving the UDF in hordes. Though the UDF had put up two Christian chief ministers for the state, the latest exodus of the Christian votes from the UDF shows that the vote share formula, the UDF relied on, is collapsing. The BJP, virtually a new entrant into the state is benefiting from the exodus. Though Christian theology has been an antithesis to Marxian dialectics, in Kerala, Pinarayi led Left Democratic Front has buried the historical antagonism with the Church and charted a practical path towards mutual political cooperation. This is inspite of Pinarayi having used an unparliamentary word to describe a Christian Bishop.
So why would a community that historically supported Congress take a stance against it? Ironically, the state that prided over its communal harmony is seeing a communal polarisation between its two big minorities, Kerala today is seeing a battle of public perception on who is the dominant minority in the state. The Indian Union Muslim League has been a prominent constituent of the UDF. The party represents the moderate voices of the community and has been winning between 18 to 23 seats in elections held in the last 15 years. However, two acts from the IUML is said to have created the polarisation. One was IUML's efforts in cementing an alliance with the UDF incorporating the Welfare Party with its extremist Islamic ideological leanings for the local body polls and the other is when IUML leader Panakkad Sadiq Ali Shihab Thangal wrote an article in the party's daily that hailed Turkey's conversion of Hagia Sophia into a mosque. The CPM sensing an opportunity put the UDF and IUML on the backfoot asking why Thangal supported the conversion of the religious structure.
Read: BJP's polarisation agenda can be contained: Kerala minister
Another major embarrassment for the UDF came when the Kerala Congress (M) considered being the Christian constituent of the alliance walked away under Jose K Mani's leadership and joined the LDF. This made a gaping hole in the UDF's chances in the central Travancore region which is a dominant Christian belt. These factors changed the dynamics for the local body polls resulting in the UDF losing its hold in several of its traditional bastions.
The BJP, sensing the polarisation between the minority groups have gone out of its way to woo Christians. Prime Minister Narendra Modi through the governor of Mizoram, P.S Sreedharan Pillai has initiated talks with the second-largest non-catholic group in the state, the Malankara Syrian Church. The Prime minister held talks with the bishops of the non-catholic denomination in resolving the 100-year-old dispute in the church. Meanwhile, a group of cardinals from Kerala also met with the Prime Minister and submitted an appeal saying that the community is losing out on the minority welfare schemes of the government as 80% of the benefits were being allegedly cornered by a single community. The BJP which is finding the electoral math being tough in the state seems to be getting a shot in the arm as the Christians desert the UDF over fears that the IUML will dominate the alliance.
The UDF is in a damage control mode with IUML's P. K. Kunhalikutty rushing to Bishop houses across Kerala to allay fears of IUML dominating UDF policy agenda. P. K. Kunhalikutty is considered to be the moderate and modern voice in the IUML and enjoys a good rapport with several Christian leaders. However, is P. K. Kunhalikutty charm offensive enough to arrest the tide will be answered only when the UDF faces the ballot. Congress has the Gandhi scion representing the MP constituency of Wayanad in the state. The UDF's return to power in the cyclic left-right-left battle might be tough as established electoral arithmetic in the state unravels paving for new political calculations.
