Ahmedabad: After 32 years in the history of Gujarat, the state is gearing up for a Triangular Contest in the upcoming Gujarat Assembly polls, in 2022. This contest looks tough and it sounds like a real battlefield. Actually, Gujarat has witnessed many political battles and only Congress and BJP could make their mark and flourish in the state. Now, the Delhi-based Aam Aadmi Party is trying to make inroads and expand its footprint.
The Gujarat assembly election dates will be announced on the eve of Diwali and polls are likely to take place by the end of November or the first fortnight of December. Eventually, a triangular fight is all set to take place in this election. All three parties-BJP, Congress, and AAP- will be fighting out for the 182 assembly seats.
Earlier, the Aam Aadmi Party won 92 of the total 117 seats in the Punjab assembly elections and is campaigning with renewed vigor in Gujarat to gain a clear majority in the state. Being PM Narendra Modi's home state, Arvind Kejriwal has more political affinity for Gujarat and is working hard to win it. Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, and Raghav Chadha have almost settled in Gujarat to woo voters.
However, in the history of Gujarat politics, there were political battles between only two parties-BJP and Congress, while other parties weren't taken seriously by Gujarati voters. For the last 27 years, the BJP has enjoyed a clear majority in Gujarat, and the BJP has been ruling the roost
On the other hand, Congress is fizzling out over the years. In the five-year period from 2012 to 2017, 14 MLAs elected on Congress tickets switched sides and joined the BJP. That is, there is a lack of strong leadership in Congress which led to its downfall in the state.
Earlier, in the assembly elections held in 2017, the BJP contested 182 seats and won 99 of them. Congress contested 177 seats and won 77 seats. NCP contested 58 seats and won only one seat. Bharatiya Tribal Party contested 6 seats and won 2 seats. 794 candidates stood as independents, out of which only 3 candidates got elected. While Aam Aadmi Party contested 29 seats and drew a blank.
Similarly, in the 2012 assembly elections, the BJP won 115 seats, while the Congress won 61 seats. NCP won its traditional 2 seats. JD won 1 seat, GPP 2 seats, and independent 1 seat. Thus in 2012 also there was a direct fight between BJP and Congress.
Talking about a three-way contest in 2022, political expert Haresh Jhala, told ETV Bharat, "Triangular contest will hurt Congress more than BJP since the saffron party is the first choice of voters followed by Congress in second place. Hence, if Aam Aadmi Party enters the fray, it is bound to eat into the votes of Congress and weaken it further," he said and added," Now, the question of ideology comes to the fore. If the rural areas are attracted to AAP's ideology, Congress may suffer a huge loss. Similarly, if their ideology attracts the urban people, BJP will suffer a lot. So it is very clear that Congress will suffer in rural areas and BJP will lose votes in urban areas," he added.
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Sharing his view on loyal voters, Haresh Jhala further said, "The voter belongs to a party until he visits a polling booth and he is bound to change his choices. It means some votes may go to the Aam Aadmi Party. Another interesting thing is that the Aam Aadmi Party is number one in campaigning on social media, while BJP lags far behind. Now, the most important thing is the AAP is lagging behind in the on-the-ground campaign, while BJP is far ahead of it. Apart from it, BJP manages to take voters to the booth to help them cast their votes. In which the Aam Aadmi Party is still far behind.
While, political analyst Dilip Gohil told ETV Bharat said after 32 years, the Triangle battle is going to be played out in Gujarat assembly elections. "In 1990, the ruling party Congress suffered a huge loss. This time in 2022, the picture is different. The Aam Aadmi Party's election campaign seems to dent Congress's vote bank. But if there is a division of votes, there is a possibility that there will be a cut in votes for Congress and BJP as well," said Ghosh
Dilip Gohil further said that a survey has predicted that the Aam Aadmi Party will get an average of 17 percent votes. "If it gets 17 percent of votes, it will cut into Congress votes. If the percentage of votes goes beyond 17, then it will eat into BJP votes as well. Another thing is, if AAP is able to attract floating votes, it will affect BJP's prospects. Some of the Congress candidates have been winning elections on their own strength, while the BJP is keeping an eye on it, and has made a strategy. The question is what the Aam Aadmi Party will be able to do about it. Finally, once the names of the candidates of the three parties are announced, it can be clearly said who will win how many seats. For now, it is difficult to predict a winner," he concludes.
