New Delhi: After successfully hosting the G20 Summit in New Delhi last month, India is suddenly facing a fresh set of bilateral diplomatic challenges extending from its neighbourhood to across the world.
First came the explosive allegation by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that India had a hand in the killing of one of its citizens, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a wanted Khalistani separatist, earlier this year. Trudeau made this allegation on the floor of the Canada’s House of Commons on September 18 soon after returning from New Delhi after attending the G20 Summit.
Trudeau’s trip to New Delhi itself was a disaster. Of all the world leaders with whom he held bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reserved his most acerbic comments for the Canadian Prime Minister due to Ottawa’s support to Khalistani extremists.
Along with Trudeau’s allegation, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly announced the expulsion of a senior Indian diplomat posted in Canada and, in violation of diplomatic protocols, also revealed the name of the diplomat. In a tit-for-tat move, the Ministry of External Affairs summoned Canadian High Commissioner to India Cameron Mackay and ordered the expulsion of a senior Canadian diplomat posted in New Delhi.
New Delhi has dismissed Trudeau’s allegations as “absurd and motivated”. “Such unsubstantiated allegations seek to shift the focus from Khalistani terrorists and extremists, who have been provided shelter in Canada and continue to threaten India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the External Affairs Ministry said in a statement. “The inaction of the Canadian government on this matter has been a long-standing and continuing concern. That Canadian political figures have openly expressed sympathy for such elements remains a matter of deep concern.”
On June 19, 45-year-old Nijjar, a leader of the Khalistan Tiger Force (KTF) and head of the Canadian arm of the proscribed Sikhs for Justice (SFJ), was shot dead in the parking lot of a gurdwara at Surrey in Vancouver, Canada.
A native of Harsinghpur in Jalandhar district of Punjab, Nijjar reportedly worked as a plumber in Surrey, Canada. He was elected to head the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara in Surrey, Canada. He had visited Pakistan in 2013-14 to meet with Jagtar Singh Tara of KTF, who was arrested from Thailand in 2015, and Pakistan’s ISI. The National Investigation Agency (NIA) had designated Nijjar as a terrorist under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act in 2020 and had put a reward of Rs 10 lakh on his head.
Since Trudeau made his allegation, India has also suspended visa services for all Canadian citizens citing safety of its diplomats in the Indian missions in Canada. This apart, India has ordered the expulsion of 41 more Canadian diplomats from India by October 10 saying that there should be parity in the number of diplomats in both the countries.
Following this, Canada has now sought “private talks” with India to resolve the diplomatic row. "We are in contact with the Government of India,” Foreign Minister Joly was quoted as saying by the Global News. “We take Canadian diplomats’ safety very seriously, and we will continue to engage privately because we think that diplomatic conversations are best when they remain private.”
The ties between India and Canada were going downhill was also evident from the fact that Trudeau’s explosive allegation was preceded by the pausing of trade talks between the two countries. In early September, the Early Progress Trade Agreement (EPTA) talks were suspended. The EPTA was a first step towards a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Canada.
Reports suggest that India decided to pause the trade talks because Canada is allowing its land to be used by subversive elements. Since India’s imports from Canada can be substituted from any other friendly country, New Delhi does not have to rely solely on Ottawa for key commodities. According to industry estimates, the CEPA could have boosted India-Canada bilateral trade by as much as $6.5 billion, yielding a GDP gain of $3.8 billion to $5.9 billion for Canada by 2035.
Even as the India-Canada row persisted, New Delhi suffered another diplomatic jolt when Armenia lost the region of Nagorno-Karabakh in the war against Azerbaijan. The fall of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in the South Caucasus, to Azerbaijan in the last week of September will be a cause of concern for India. New Delhi has been supporting Armenia in its war against Azerbaijan over the disputed region all this while.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have been involved in an ethnic and territorial conflict for over three decades now over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. On September 19, Azerbaijan launched a sudden military offensive. The very next day, the government of Nagorno-Karabakh, officially the Republic of Artsakh, a de-facto independent country, agreed to disarm, which led to a ceasefire. On September 28, Artsakh president Samvel Shahramanyan signed a decree stating that all state institutions would be dissolved by January 1, 2024, bringing the existence of the republic to an end.
Though India maintains friendly bilateral relations with both the Central Asian nations, it is Armenia that India has backed during the war over Nagorno-Karabakh. New Delhi has openly positioned itself on the side of Yerevan by supplying military hardware. According to reports, India supplied Armenia with Swathi weapons-locating radar. Last year, India and Armenia signed a $250-million agreement under which New Delhi supplied Yerevan with indigenously developed multi-barrel Pinaka launchers, anti-tank rockets, and other range of ammunitions.
One of the reasons India has been supporting Armenia is that New Delhi is concerned about Turkey’s imperial ambition of creating a pan-Turkic empire that will cover the Caucasus and parts of Eurasia. It envisions an empire that will comprise all nations and regions where a Turkic type of language is spoken. India has decided to oppose Azerbaijan and its allies, Pakistan and Turkey, and Turkey’s expansionist plans.
As an ally of Azerbaijan, Pakistan has supplied men and military to the Central Asian nation to assist in its conflicts. Azerbaijan has reciprocated by offering Pakistan geopolitical, geoeconomic and geostrategic benefits.
The aim of seizing Armenian territory is to gain unhindered access forcibly to Turkey, Azerbaijan, Pakistan and other Turkic-oriented nations. At the same time, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan share a similar stance on Kashmir. While Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had sharply condemned India’s abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir in 2019, Azerbaijani officials have been quoted as saying that they support Islamabad’s stand on Kashmir. This is a cause of major diplomatic concern for New Delhi.
