New Delhi: With voting in Delhi to take place just in a week’s time, going by the current mood of Delhi’s voters, the ruling Aam Aadmi Party seems to be comfortably placed for winning this election. The BJP seems to be putting up a fight against AAP, but still at some distance. The Congress party which ruled Delhi for fifteen long years (1998-2013), is yet to recover from its extremely poor performance during the 2015 Assembly elections when its vote share remained in single digits and it failed to win even one seat.
The ground reports and some of the recent opinion polls suggest, a ground swell in favour of AAP. After a very poor performance during the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, AAP seems to have recovered. The BJP which registered a massive victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections winning all seven seats with 57% votes is certainly the nearest rival of AAP, but at a distance. Sizeable number of Delhi voters seems to have made up their mind to vote for AAP even when they had voted for the BJP in large numbers only recently during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Many voters are making a distinction between electing the national government and the government for Delhi.
What puts AAP ahead of its rivals are the twin factors -- people’s approval of the work done by the Kejriwal government especially in the field of education and health and immense popularity of its leader, the chief minister Arvind Kejriwal. What makes the position of AAP stronger is the absence of any leaders either within the BJP or within the Congress which could be anywhere close to the popularity rating of Arvind Kejriwal.
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Though AAP did not perform well both in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha election, but ever since the party has come into existence, it has been a popular choice of Delhi’s voters for running the government in the state. Though AAP could not win a majority of seats in the very first assembly election it contested in Delhi in 2013, winning 28 seats with 29.5% votes, but almost a year later during the 2015 assembly elections, the AAP registered a massive victory winning 67 of the 70 assembly seats with 54.3% vote share.
The BJP is likely to contest Delhi assembly elections on national issues highlighting their achievements -- passing the Citizenship Amendment Act, abrogation of Article 370, supporting construction of Ram Mandir at Ayodhya and Triple Talaq. But going by how people have voted in recently concluded assembly elections, Delhi voters might be more concerned about the city level local issues and might vote on the local issues. The best strategy for AAP for these elections would be to campaign on the work done by the government during the last five years. In some of the recently concluded elections like in Jharkhand and in Haryana, voters preferred voting more on state and local issues than national issues. assembly elections. I think even in Delhi voters would vote keeping in mind the issues with concerns governance of Delhi and not on national issues.
Voters’ preference for the state issues while voting would put AAP firmly ahead of its rival as there is massive approval of the work done by the Kejriwal government in Delhi. The survey data indicating that direct benefits received by the people of Delhi through various schemes of Delhi Government might be decisive in shaping their voting decision. Results of the recent assembly elections indicate — voters considered state issues more important than the national issues while taking their voting decision. Studies conducted by CSDS indicate -- Delhi voters are more likely to vote on the basis of the work done by the AAP in the Capital, rather than looking at the work done by Modi at the Centre. While more than one in every two, or 55%, said they would be voting looking only at the work done by AAP in Delhi, as against only 15% who said they would vote on the basis of the work done by Modi at the Centre.
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The CSDS Delhi Governance Survey indicates a very high degree of satisfaction among voters with the AAP Government. Though the satisfaction level with the Central Government was also found to be on the higher side, but just like in states like Haryana and Jharkhand, that doesn’t seem to be translating into votes for BJP. The data shows AAP to be the most popular choice of the voters even amongst those who are completely satisfied with the performance of Central government. More than two in five amongst those who claimed to be completely satisfied with last six-months’ performance of Modi-led-BJP, reported having a strong inclination towards AAP.
What puts AAP ahead of its rival is absence of the anti-incumbency factor. People generally seemed to be happy and there is no visible sign of any anti-incumbency against the AAP government. In Haryana, even though BJP was very popular at the national level, it secured 58% vote share during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but anti-incumbency against the Khattar government denied a majority to the BJP. Similarly, in Jharkhand, the vote share of BJP dropped by around 22 percentage points (from combined vote share of 55.3% of BJP and AJSU), compared to the Lok Sabha, owing to the unpopularity of Raghubar Das, especially among Adivasis. Not to forget, the anti-incumbency against the state government outweighed Modi’s popularity in the State Assembly Elections of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh as well. The AAP government does not seem to be having any difficulty on this front.
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It is important to note that at the time when elections have become more about popularity of individual than party, on this AAP scores heavily over the BJP in Delhi as BJP does not have any leader as a match against an extremely popular Chief — Arvind Kejriwal. There are various leaders of BJP in Delhi, but none of them come even close to matching the popularity of Arvind Kejriwal and BJP might contest these elections with Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the party’s face. Narendra Modi still remains very popular amongst Delhi’s voters, but findings of Delhi Governance Study indicate - Kejriwal’s popularity outweighed Modi’s by more than 10 percentage points. Thus, even if the fight becomes the one between Kejriwal and Modi, the former looks stronger in his territory.
There is more than a week left before people of Delhi would cast their votes on February 8. Though any story might still unfold in the coming days, if the AAP succeeds in keeping the narrative towards the local issues, it should feel assured of another victory in Delhi.
Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). Views expressed are personal.
