Guwahati (Assam): Although the opposition parties including the Congress and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) have forged "Mahagathbandhan" or the "grand alliance" to stop the division of religious minority votes, lack of consensus among the alliance partners is all set to divide the Minority votes in the forthcoming assembly polls in Assam.
With the candidates of partners of the Congress-led grand alliance fielding their own candidates in some of the minority-dominated constituencies, political observers feel that there will be a sort of 're-run of 2016 results' in certain constituencies, where Muslims voters are dominant and play a deciding factor. In the 2016 assembly polls, BJP had gained in some of the Muslim dominated constituencies due to the division of votes between Congress and AIUDF.
In 2016 BJP had won the Batadraba assembly segment despite the fact that there were 52 per cent, religious minority voters, in the constituency. While BJP's Angrrolata Deka could poll 46343 votes, Congress and AIUDF candidates managed to poll 38458 and 33022 votes respectively--making it clear that the division of votes between the Congress and AIUDF had given the edge to the BJP.
While the saffron party had fielded sitting legislator Angrrolata Deka in Batadraba this time, both the Congress and Anchalik Gana Morcha have fielded separate candidates in the constituency despite being partners of the grand alliance led by the Congress. While the Congress has fielded Sivmani Bora, Anchalik Gana Morcha has put forwarded human rights activist Lachit Bordoloi in Batadrava. Further, AIUDF's ticket aspirant Motiur Rahman has decided to contest from the constituency Independently from Batadraba. Observers feel that the development will divide the Minority votes into three quarters this time, benefitting the BJP once again.
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A similar situation will occur in the Sarukhetri constituency where the Minority voters are dominant. While the Congress' sitting legislator Jakir Hussain Sikdar is contesting from the constituency, AIUDF has fielded its candidate Minakshi Rahman. There are 2.70 lakh voters in the constituency out of which 70 per cent belongs to the religious minority community. Although Congress and AIUDF maintained that they are going for a friendly contest in Sarukhetri, division of votes are imminent and this is expected to benefit Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) candidate, Kalpana Patowari.
In the 2016 assembly polls, Congress' Jakir Hussain Sikdar had polled 70062 votes while the AIUDF candidate Ali Hussain could manage to poll only 21460 votes. AGP candidate Chittaranjan Barman stood second by polling 45815 votes in Sarukhetri in 2016.
Naoboicha is another constituency where the division of votes is expected this time. In 2016, AIUDF candidate Mamum Imdadul Haque Choudhury had won the constituency. However, this time AIUDF vacated the seat to Congress, which had fielded former minister Bharat Narah in the constituency. While Narah is not a local candidate, AIUDF's ticket aspirant and former All Minority Students Union (AMSU) leader, Ajijur Rahmah have decided to contest as an Independent candidate in Naoboicha. It will not be shocking if AGP candidate Jayanta Khaund emerges victorious due to the division of votes this time.
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Similarly, the Chenga constituency in Barpeta district awaits an almost identical situation. The Congress and AIUDF have decided to go for friendly contests in the constituency. While Congress has given the ticket to sitting MLA Sukur Ali, AIUDF has fielded young and dynamic leader Ashraful Hussain in the constituency. Although there are 65 per cent minority voters in Chenga, the division of votes between the Congress and AIUDF candidates is expected to benefit the AGP candidate.
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