Hyderabad: As things stand, Australia on Tuesday qualified for the ongoing ICC Cricket World Cup semi-final following their stunning win over Afghanistan riding on all-rounder Glenn Maxwell's blistering 201 not-out knock. So far, three teams - India, South Africa and Australia - have qualified for the semi-finals while three teams New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan will battle it out to identify India's semi-final rival.
Rohit and Co. have already qualified for the semifinals and topped the table accumulating 16 points in eight games. South Africa are placed second with 12 points and will now take on Australia in the second semifinals at Eden Gardens in Kolkata.
Babar Azam-led Pakistan team are currently in fifth place accumulating four wins in the eight matches with a net run rate (NRR) of +0.036 while New Zealand are placed just above at fourth spot with a NRR of +0.398. Afghanistan are level on points with both sides but behind in the NRR calculation (-0.330).
IND vs PAK World Cup 2023 Semi-Final, How?
Scenario 1
The possibility of an India-Pakistan clash in the first semi-final on November 15 are still high. For this to happen, Babar and Co. will have to play their hearts out and win by a huge margin against defending champions England in Kolkata. Following their victory over New Zealand, Pakistan depend on Sri Lanka's performance against Blackcaps' in their last league-stage match on November 9. If Sri Lanka beats the Kiwis and Pakistan defeats England in their last match respectively, they will surpass Kane Williamson's side and reach 10 points.
To solidify their case, Men in Green would support South Africa to beat Afghanistan, preventing them from reaching 10 points. However, if Afghanistan wins, Pakistan's fate will depend on the NRR. However, Pakistan will have the advantage of playing their last game after the New Zealand and Afghanistan's match which will help them to understand the equations and play accordingly.
Scenario 2
This is quite a difficult scenario for Pakistan because New Zealand have the highest NRR of 0.398 among the three teams. In such a case, Pakistan will hope the Kiwis' margin of victory remains as small as it can be; if New Zealand wins by only 1 run, Pakistan will need to beat England by a margin of 130 runs or more to secure a semi-final spot.
Again, Afghanistan will continue to remain a threat in this scenario and Pakistan would want South Africa to inflict defeat on the Hashmatullah Shahidi-led side. These two outcomes will enable the Men in Green to take control of their own destiny.
The runners-up of the last two editions of the World Cup, New Zealand will square off against struggling Sri Lanka in their last group match at Bengaluru on Thursday. The Kiwis need to win by a handsome margin and hope that Pakistan (0.036) and Afghanistan (-0.038) do not win.
For Afghanistan to qualify as the fourth team, they have to win against power-packed South Africa by a huge margin to eclipse the NRR of New Zealand and Pakistan. But if New Zealand and Pakistan lose against Sri Lanka and England respectively, then just a win against South Africa will do it for Afghanistan.
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