New Delhi: Though Iran and Hezbollah, both primarily Shia Muslim entities, have openly supported Hamas in its war against Israel that has claimed over 3,500 lives on both sides so far, no regional or non-regional power would like to see further escalation of the conflict because of some recent positive changes in West Asia.
Both Iran and Hezbollah have a deep-seated ideological and religious affinity with the Palestinian cause, which is seen as a struggle against what they perceive as oppression and injustice. Many Palestinians are Sunni Muslims, but this doesn’t negate the strong ideological connections that exist, especially when it comes to confronting Israel, which is viewed as a common adversary.
Iran and Hezbollah have consistently opposed the State of Israel and its policies in West Asia. They see Israel’s establishment as a historic injustice, and they are committed to supporting any group or cause that resists Israeli occupation and what they view as Israeli aggression in the region.
What the Israel-Hamas war has done is it has revived the Palestine issue which had fallen off the global agenda in recent times. “The Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel and Israeli reprisals against Gaza have two consequences,” R Dayakar, former Indian Ambassador to Iraq and Jordan who also served in the West Asia desk of the Ministry of External Affairs, told ETV Bharat.
“One is to halt or reverse the recent Saudi Arabian diplomatic signals for rapprochement with Israel under US persuasion,” Dayakar said. “Secondly, it brought forth renewed attention to the Palestinian cause globally with support to the two-state solution. The war has given fresh momentum and diplomatic traction to this as seen in calls to convene Arab League and OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) and UNSC (United Nations Security Council) meetings to discuss the Palestinian issue.”
While Iran has denied any hand in the current conflict, the Iran-backed and Lebanon-based armed group Hezbollah has only said that it is in close contact with the Hamas leadership. By launching the surprise attacks on October 7, Hamas has made its point that Israel is not invincible. However, what has got the world worried is the scale of Israel’s retaliatory attacks.
According to sources, Israel has mobilised around 360,000 reservists from across the world. This will supplement the 150,000-strong active military force of Israel. What this means is that Israel will have half a million men and women in uniform ready for action.
But the fact of the matter is that Israel does not need such a huge force to retaliate against a militant group like Hamas. With Israel ordering Palestinian civilians in north Gaza to move to south Gaza warning that they would be on the firing line, the possibility is that Israeli forces will occupy north Gaza and will not vacant that land.
Apart from this, in all likelihood, Israel is getting ready for a more enduring war on multiple fronts like its borders with Lebanon and Syria. A day after Hamas launched its attacks, Hezbollah had launched guided rockets and artillery fire on the disputed Shebaa Farms in Israel’s border with southern Lebanon in what it (Hezbollah) called was “in solidarity” with the Palestinian people. Israel retaliated by firing barrages of artillery into southern Lebanon. In fact, one journalist was killed and six others injured on Friday during an Israeli missile attack on southern Lebanon. But, as of now, Hezbollah is unlikely to do anything more until it gets a nod from Iran.
Meanwhile, following the outbreak of the war with Hamas, Israel also bombed the airports at Aleppo and Damascus in Syria rendering these inoperable. The bombings came ahead of a visit by the Iranian foreign minister to Syria.
Such incidents have sparked speculations about whether Israel is faced with war on the Lebanon and Syria borders as well. Syria is technically at war with Israel following the latter’s annexation of the Golan Heights. The Golan Heights are a rocky plateau in the Levant region of Western Asia that was captured by Israel from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War. The international community, with the exception of Israel and the US, regards the Golan Heights to be Syrian territory held by Israel under military occupation.
In recent years, Israel had bombed Syria several times to prevent the replenishment of arms and ammunition for Hezbollah by Iran through Syrian territory. That is why there are speculations about whether Syria will plunge into the war between Israel and Hamas.
But Syria, a Sunni-majority country with a Shia ruling elite, will be hard-pressed to get into a war coming as it is out of a long-drawn-out civilian war. Also, after more than a decade of being suspended from the Arab League due to a government crackdown on Arab Spring protesters, Syria was readmitted to the organisation in May this year. This move came as President Bashar al-Assad, a Shia, sought to normalise relationships with other Arab nations. If at all Syria has to plunge itself into the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, it will have to consult both Iran and Russia.
According to Dayakar, one of the reasons why Iran will not be inclined to get involved in the current conflict is the revival of its diplomatic relations with its traditional rival Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to resume ties in March under a deal negotiated by China after seven years of hostility, which had threatened stability and security in the Gulf and helped fuel conflicts in the Middle East, from Yemen to Syria.
Another reason, Dayakar believes, for Iran’s disinclination to get engaged in the war is the US’ deal with Tehran, in which $6 billion of Iranian funds was unfrozen in exchange for the release of five detained Americans. In the latest development in this connection, the US and Qatar have reached an agreement that Doha will not act on any request from Tehran for the time being to access the $6 billion of Iranian funds that were unblocked last month.
The war has also put the much-hyped Abraham Accords in jeopardy. The Abraham Accords, mediated by the US, are bilateral agreements that seek to bring about normalisation of ties between Israel and Arab nations. The Accords are named after Abraham, a figure revered in Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, symbolising the hope for reconciliation and cooperation among these countries. The main objectives of the Accords were to normalise diplomatic, economic, and cultural relations between Israel and the signatory Arab nations. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan are the signatories to these Accords till now.
However, the conflict is now likely to adversely impact the US mediation efforts between Saudi Arabia and Israel for the Abraham Accords. The proposed agreement would have been the mother of all agreements, a pact which would establish diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
These are among the reasons why countries of the region would like de-escalation of the Israel-Hamas war and let diplomacy play a role in resolving the Palestine issue. According to observers, while Qatar, the UN, Russia and Egypt can play the role of a mediator, the Arab League and the OIC, while not mediating between the two warring sides, will put diplomatic pressure in the interest of Palestine.
