West Bengal: Poll-bound Bengal is witnessing something new.
Posing in a particular way, akin to a particular religion, Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee’s posters and advertisements are a regular feature over the past ten years. But, Mamata Banerjee chanting hymns and verses from Hindu sacred texts at poll campaigns? That too, during a campaign where she is the candidate? That is something, which people can hardly remember.
On the other side of the spectrum, making a pit stop at temples near campaign venues is a must for any BJP leader, be it the party’s national president JP Nadda or Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Even the latest entrant in the saffron brigade, actor Mithun Chakraborty, was seen sitting on the forecourt of a Kali temple at his cousin’s house in Kolkata and buttressing the point that how he chants hymns and offers prayers at daybreak, everyday.
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Suddenly, the summer of 2021 is seeing temples on every politician's Bengal poll campaign itinerary. Is the polarisation phenomenon now firmly in place in Bengal? And is the threat clear and present for Mamata Banerjee?
For answers one can refer to Mamata Banerjee herself, when she springs up the ‘70-30 formula’ during her campaign, specially in Nandigram, wherefrom she is trying her luck against BJP's Suvendu Adhikari and CPI(M)'s Minakshi Mukherjee.
It becomes more evident when BJP's Suvendu Adhikari talks about the '62,000 vs 2.13 lakh' equation in Nandigram. Obviously Adhikari never mentions any religion, but his indications are clear when one looks closely at the demographic structure of the signature Assembly seat of Bengal.
Nandigram houses around 62,000 Muslim minority population along with Hindus, who number around 2.13 lakh. The equation and the indications of both Mamata and Suvendu are pretty obvious. The footprints of religious polarisation are gradually settling in Nandigram, and at several corners of the state.
The Chandi Mantra or sacred Hindu hymns is resonating across the Purba Medinipur hamlet of Nandigram. And interesetingly, this will be the first time in this millenium that Nandigram is witnessing an Assembly poll battle, where there are no minority Muslim candidates from the main warring parties. Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress, Suvendu Adhikari of the BJP and Minakshi Mukherjee of the CPI(M) – all belong to the majority Hindu community. Can parties completely ignore the Muslim minority votes and ensure a win from Nandigram? The answer is subtly buried in the around 27 percent Muslim population in Nandigram.
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BJP's initial equation of polarisation could have clicked in Nandigram had Mamata Banerjee decided to contest elsewhere. But, she is now a clear and present danger for them. A literal heavyweight who has the capacity to split the majority Hindu votes. The sub-text of '70-30 formula' is well in play. Adding more colour to the complexities, is the firm and obvious presence of Minakshi Mukherjee, the CPI(M) young gun from Nandigram. A feisty lady, Mukherjee has already shown enough grit in her campaign and could definitely make a dent in the Hindu majority votes, which both BJP and Trinamool Congress are eyeing desperately.
Added to this is the social engineering factor that Trinamool Congress is banking on heavily to split votes. Apart from committing a 'Model Nandigram', Mamata Banerjee has said in her party's manifesto that separate reservations will be there for backward classes. Will Nandigram fall for it or will it tilt towards a personality vote? The answers are getting complex by the day.
There is a substantial decrease in the number of Muslim candidates in Mamata Banerjee's list of 291 aspirants that she has announced. It has already raised eyebrows. The same Mamata who had fieled 53 Muslim candidates in 2016, has only fielded 35 candidates from the minority community this time. In the 2016 Assembly polls, out of those 53 candidates, 35 had won. So, why did Mamata decide to decrease the numbers? Political watchers claim she is readily playing into the hands of the polarisation trap laid out by her opponent, BJP.
While Mamata has fielded less number of Muslim candidates this time, creating a binary of sorts, she has made way for more candidates from the Scheduled Caste communities. The Trinamool supremo could have taken a cue from the 2019 Lok Sabha election results, where her bete-noire the BJP, had taken a handsome lead in 46 out of 84 Assembly seats reserved for the SC and ST communities.
So, is Mamata sure that the Muslim voters will rally behind the Trinamool Congress like the past two Assembly elections of 2011 and 2016, or is she more concerned about the counter-polarisation of Hindus by the BJP and is throwing her weight in making the most out of the '70-30 formula'? The answers lie in the rice fields and fish ponds of rural Bengal.
Amid all this high voltage poll arithmetic, lies Minakshi Mukherjee. Bearing down heavily on her young shoulders is the death of 14 people in police firing during the 2007 anti-land acquisition movement in Nandigram, a movement which was essentially of the sharecroppers, but later hijacked by Trinamool Congress. Or to be more precise, by then young TMC leader, Suvendu Adhikari. Mamata will always want to bag the Left votes of Nandigram in her effort to consolidate her position against the BJP. Suvendu on the other hand, will want to make the most of the grand challenge.
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Bengal has not seen much upset results like it saw in 1984 from Jadavpur when a young and green horn in politics, Mamata Banerjee, outsmarted CPI(M) heavyweight Somnath Chatterjee. This time if Minakshi manages to blunt the polarisation factor in Nandigram, bags the numbers and even comes second, she could well go down in the political history of Bengal to be that dark horse who either defeated Mamata Banerjee or Suvendu Adhikari. And if she secures the winning margin, she would emerge as a much needed nutrition line to the badly emaciated Left Front. The battle for Nandigram is now open.
