TN Assembly bypoll: Advantage Cong; AIADMK to leave it for ally TMC

It is advantage Congress in the February 27 by-poll for Erode (East) Assembly Constituency, necessitated by the demise of party legislator, Thirumahan Evera, son of Congress veteran EVKS Elangovan. Having staked its claim to contest the election, Congress leaders are slated to meet the ruling DMK and other allies seeking support. The AIADMK is likely to allot it to its ally, the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) as was the case last time, writes MC Rajan of ETV Bharat.

Chennai: Assured of the ruling DMK's backing and aided by a deeply divided opposition AIADMK, the Congress is all set to enter the fray in the bypoll for the Erode East Assembly constituency. The party won the seat in the 2021 elections by defeating the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC -Moopanar). Now also, it appears to be a contest between the two. With the AIADMK's iconic Two Leaves' symbol remaining frozen due to the split, the Dravidian major is inclined to let its ally face the election.

“We are contesting the bypoll. Erode East is a seat held by us. It is ours, we have won last time. This evening, we will meet our allies, the DMK, Left Parties, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), MDMK and Muslim Parties seeking their support in this election,” TNCC president KS Alagiri told the media in Chennai after leading a protest to press for the recall of Governor RN Ravi. Sources in the DMK said the party would favour anyone from the EVKS clan since it would be an added advantage. As such, it could be the deceased legislator's father and former Union Minister Elangovan as well.

“For the Congress, the EVKS family enjoys a good reputation and as such has an edge. Congress veteran EVKS Elangovan is closely related to rationalist leader and Dravidian icon, 'Periyar' EV Ramasamy. Moreover, it is a different situation where the father gets sympathy from the electorate because of the son Thirumahan Evera's untimely death,” explains senior journalist Babu Jayakumar. “Going by convention, the DMK will not lay claim to the seat and will support the Congress with all its might. The BJP, too, might not evince keen interest in the contest as its focus is on the 2024 LS polls,” he added.

It is a political convention that the party which contested the seat previously, irrespective of the outcome last time, gets the ticket. But, more than convention, it is the AIADMK's current plight that makes the party shy away from the bypoll. Ever since the split in the party in July last, Both the AIADMK is not able to use party symbol, Two Leaves, and the Supreme Court is yet to adjudicate on the validity of the AIADMK general council, which expelled O Panneerselvam (OPS) and elected Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) as interim general secretary.

“For the AIADMK, this bypoll will be a barometer to know, who has the support of the electorate, EPS or OPS. Though western Tamil Nadu or the Kongu region is considered the stronghold of EPS, the party fighting the battle without the Two Leave symbol is remote. The TMC, which fought the last election on the AIADMK symbol, would have to contest on an independent symbol if both EPS and OPS doesn't agree on the TMC entering the fray,” reasons analyst Raveendran Duraisamy. “Community profile of Erode, the turmeric capital and a textile business hub is different and it favours the Congress. Unlike elsewhere in western Tamil Nadu, it is not the OBC Goundar community, which is the dominant caste in Erode. Here, the Mudaliyar and Nayakkar communities, both OBC, are numerically dominant. And this rattles EPS,” he further explained.

Earlier in the day, a delegation of AIADMK leaders of the EPS faction met TMC president GK Vasan at the latter's office and held discussions on the bypoll. This was a follow up of the talks Vasan had with EPS a couple of days ago. “Victory in the by-election is of utmost importance and we are focused on the AIADMK-led alliance winning the seat. People are upset with the DMK government and it is widely prevalent. This is a favourable one for our alliance. Within a few days, the candidate of the alliance will be announced,” Vasan told newspersons.

“The issue of symbol is irrelevant as of now. When the candidate is announced, it will be decided,” former Minister D Jayakumar of the AIADMK, who addressed the media, along with Vasan, said in response to a question. In the 2021 election, Thirumahan Evera of the Congress secured 67,300 votes (vote share – 44.27%) while TMC's M Yuvaraja polled 58,396 votes (vote share – 38.41%). Interestingly, the ultra Tamil nationalist, Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) of filmmaker Seeman had a vote share of 7.65% while Mkkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) of versatile actor Kamal Hassan got a vote share of 6.58%. With Hassan having taken part in the Bharat Jodo yatra of Rahul Gandhi, it is speculated that the MNM would support the Congress, giving an added advantage to the grand old party.