Kanchipuram: The AIADMK was hoping to make the best use of its mega alliance with the PMK and DMDK in the 16 Parliament constituencies of northern Tamil Nadu before the commencement of campaigning. Although both of the AIADMK's alliance partners have a strong vote base going by their past electoral performance in the region, the alliance will have its task cut out to pip the DMK, which looks to be heading towards victory in 13 of the 16 seats.
In the three Chennai seats - North Chennai, South Chennai, and Central Chennai, the BJP has established a good presence since its candidates had secured about 1.56 lakh votes in the 18 Assembly constituencies in the 2016 Assembly elections. However, the ruling party had allocated two of the city seats to the PMK and DMDK which have little presence in the capital. The DMK appears to be heading for a victory in all the three seats to regain its bastion which was lost in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, when AIADMK under Jayalalithaa swept the state.
In Chennai’s neighbourhood, the AIADMK has a realistic chance only in Tiruvallur, where the Congress has fielded a seemingly weak candidate and an outsider against a local heavyweight and sitting MP Venugopal. The AIADMK is traditionally strong in the area and the vote bank of allies PMK, DMDK and BJP might come in help to the ruling party which is working hard towards retaining the seat. In the other two seats in the neighbourhood - Sriperumbudur and Kanchipuram, the DMK is looking comfortably placed to send its nominees to the Parliament.
In Arakkonam, the PMK had polled 1,72,174 votes in all the six Assembly segments in 2016. The party of the Vanniyars, a dominant backward community in the northern region, has fielded former Union Minister AK Moorthy to bring home the advantage. However, the DMK has neutralized the caste advantage by fielding former Union Minister S Jagathrakshakan, also from the Vanniyar community. Jagathrakshakan is locally popular while Moorthy is an outsider, which works to DMK’s advantage.
In Vellore, DMK candidate and son of former minister K Durai Murugan seems to be gaining support against the AIADMK alliance candidate AC Shanmugam. The Income Tax department raids on the DMK nominee has resulted in a sympathy wave in the DMK's favour, handing the party a slight edge over the AIADMK.
AIADMK would be hoping to do well in Krishnagiri as the Congress candidate Chellakumar is considered weaker than the ruling party candidate KP Munusamy, who hails from the dominant Vanniyar community. The BJP too has a good presence in the constituency which lies along the Karnataka border.
In neighbouring Dharmapuri, former Union Minister Anbumani Ramadoss is hoping to scrape through in a tight race with his DMK and AMMK rivals. Dalit leader Thol Thirumavalavan finds himself in a tough battle but has an edge over his AIADMK rival since PMK rebel leader and Thamizhaga Vazhvurimai Katchi leader T Velmurugan is supporting the DMK front.
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