Vellore: The survival of Edappadi K Palaniswami-led AIADMK government has become doubtful as the mega-alliance of the party with the BJP eyeing victory on all the eight Assembly seats in the northern region seems crumbling as strong anti-Modi wave is being witnessed across the region.
In the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly, the government needs 118 seats for survival and the present AIADMK government has the support of only 108 members. There are 22 vacancies in the Assembly and the majority mark at the moment is 107.
However, the Election Commission had announced by-polls for 18 seats on April 18, besides announcing May 19 as the polling date for the other four Assembly constituencies. When results for 22 by-polls are announced, the Assembly will have its full strength and the government will be ten members short of the majority mark.
The AIADMK was targeting all the eight seats in the northern districts since winning the other ten seats is an uphill task, since rebel AIADMK leader TTV Dhinakaran had established a strong presence in the delta and southern districts. The ruling party was eyeing all the eight seats in the north since Dhinakaran’s impact in the region will be minimum.
Besides, two of AIADMK’s allies the PMK and DMDK have shown a strong vote base in the past in the northern districts. The poll arithmetic was heavily loaded in favour of the AIADMK alliance in all the eight seats, but ground realities show a different picture due to a strong anti-Modi wave and resentment against the state government which is seen as a puppet of the saffron party.
Among the eight seats, the ruling party seems to have winning chances only in three seats-Pappireddipatti, Hosur and Sholingur. In two of these seats, Hosur and Sholingur, the contest is very close and the result can go either way. Pappireddipatti is the only seat where the AIADMK could hope for a certain victory, but one seat is hardly enough to save the AIADMK government.
Perambur, a constituency in capital Chennai is the ninth seat in the northern region, but the AIADMK had written it off even before the campaign. The two constituencies in the neighbourhood of Chennai-Poonamalee and Tirupporur- have a strong PMK presence. But, the advantage of PMK alliance is neutralized by the presence of Vaiko’s MDMK in the DMK front.
In both the seats, the MDMK has strong local leaders who had contested the 2016 Assembly elections and polled almost the same votes as the PMK.
Vellore district has three Assembly constituencies- Gudiyatham, Ambur and Sholingur- go for bypolls on April 18. Ambur has a strong population of Muslims who are opposed to the AIADMK for the latter’s alliance with the BJP.
In Gudiyatham, Dhinakaran’s candidate splits the AIADMK votes, giving a clear edge to the DMK. The chances of AIADMK in both the seats are dim. In Sholingur, the PMK’s vote share itself is 24.08 per cent and AIADMK secured 36.79 per cent in the 2016 Assembly elections. The DMK got only 32.18 per cent. Though, the combined vote share of AIADMK and PMK comes around 60 per cent, which is twice that of the DMK, the battle on the ground level is very close and the results can go either way.
Dharmapuri is one constituency which has two Assembly seats- Pappireddipatti and Harur- that will witness byelections on April 18. In Pappireddipatti, the PMK which contested alone in the 2016 Assembly elections, secured 29. 47 per cent votes and pushed the DMK (26.88) to the third place.
The AIADMK polled 35.56 per cent votes and its alliance with the PMK now gives a combined vote share of over 60 per cent. At the moment, it is the only constituency, the AIADMK’s chances are bright since the AMMK’s campaign has not picked up momentum yet. In Harur constituency, Thol Thirumavalavan’s VCK, which is in the DMK alliance, has a stronger base than that of the PMK. With VCK support, the DMK appears to have a better chance of winning the seat.
In Hosur seat, in Krishnagiri district, bordering Karnataka, the combined votes of the AIADMK front as per the last Assembly elections comes to 63 per cent. This is the only one among the bypoll seats to have a strong presence of the BJP which had polled 13.40 per cent votes in the last Assembly elections when the saffron party ploughed a lone furrow.
Besides, Dhinakaran’s AMMK has negligible influence here and former minister Balakrishna Reddy’s wife Jothi is the AIADMK nominee. The minister who was disqualified in a case for violence during a protest has good support, but he is battling the twin anti-incumbencies against the Central and State governments. A nail-biting finish is expected in the seat and the results can swing either way.
The results can be slightly altered by a possible flow of currency notes during the final days of the campaign, but if the current trends hold till the end, Tamil Nadu is likely to witness swift political changes after the elections.
