Kerala to witness a tough unpredictable battle on April 6

Kerala, the only state in India where the communist government rules. 140 assembly constituencies. Any alliance or party needs an absolute majority of 71 seats to form a government. For the past 4 decades, Kerala witnessed the governance of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by the Communist Party and the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Congress, alternating every five years. In the last ten years, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP has also been active in the political canvas of Kerala, writes Sreejith Balakrishnan.

Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala does not have a situation wherein a single party can aggregate an absolute majority in the assembly to form a government. Hence, political parties of different ideologies and principles have formed alliances - LDF, UDF, and the NDA led by the CPM, Congress, and the BJP respectively - and seek the people’s mandate in the state. Unlike earlier years, when the polls used to be bilateral between the left and the UDF, with very less influence across Kerala for the NDA, this time, it’s going to be a fierce triangular battle between the three major fronts. Beyond the number of seats it could win, the NDA’s is confident of increasing their vote per cent so as to be detrimental in the victory or failure of the Left and the UDF candidates.

While the LDF has strongly campaigned listing achievements and seeking a second consecutive term confidently, the UDF has raked up many allegations against the Left and campaigned hard to return to power.

As per the pre-poll opinion surveys, the LDF is expected to win a second term in Kerala. Soon after the polls were notified, the Left has declared its candidates and started with the campaigns early on, as usual. The UDF and the NDA declared their candidates after much thoughts, discussions and arguments within the alliances. In the previous years, the opposition parties used to lead the poll campaigns by raking up the anti-incumbency factor. However, this time, the UDF which is the main opposition, has been trying to raise fresh allegations against the ruling government every day, since the elections were declared.

The UDF has been seeking the people’s votes to form a government so that they could ‘transform the state for good’. Their slogan during campaigns this time is ‘UDF for a better Kerala’ ( ‘Nadu Nannavan UDF’ which roughly means the UDF must be voted for to transform the state for good). The opposition intensified their allegations and attacks against the ruling Left during the final lap of campaigns by raking up the issues and topics including Sabarimala women entry, gold smuggling case, deep-sea fishing trawlers deal, bogus votes and KSEB deal with Adani group.

The ruling front on the other hand did not digress and went on reaching out to the people with its achievements and developments, and welfare programmes. The LDF’s slogan ‘Urappanu LDF, Urappanu Thudarbharanam’, roughly translated into ‘LDF for sure, LDF sure for a consecutive term’. In the election campaign meetings and social media platforms, the LDF reiterated its developmental achievements and welfare schemes continuously. Meanwhile, Sabarimala women entry, protection of faith, Central Government’s development and welfare programmes were in focus during the NDA campaigns. ‘A new Kerala with Modi’, the election slogan by the NDA, was also received well in Kerala. Which of these slogans influenced the people of Kerala the most would reflect in the polls.

While the campaigns reached the final days, a tough unpredictable battle is expected to be witnessed in 40 constituencies from Nemom in Thiruvananthapuram to Manjeshwaram in Kasaragod. The leaders of all three Fronts have also been concentrating on the works in these 40 seats which are beyond prediction. The Prime Minister, Union Home Minister, BJP national president, and almost a dozen union ministers have been campaigning for the NDA in Kerala, participating in roadshows and public meetings. At the same time, the UDF star campaigners Wayanad MP Rahul Gandhi and Congress national leader Priyanka Gandhi led the campaigns for the UDF.

The LDF which had won 91 of the 140 seats in 2016 polls is confident of being elected for a second consecutive term. By maintaining the upper hand it has in Northern Kerala, winning more seats with the help of Jose K Mani’s Kerala Congress in Central Kerala, and without losing much in the South, the LDF is hopeful of winning the next term. The UDF claims that it can win back many seats through the progress made in the South and retain the seats in Central Kerala. Besides winning more seats in the North, the UDF hopes to win many more seats in Kollam, Alappuzha, Thrissur and Palakkad districts and aggregate an absolute majority in the assembly.

BJP is a party that has raised its vote share in Kerala the most over the past ten years. The BJP’s attempts to increase its vote share and improve the seat position in Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, Palakkad and Kasaragod districts might be a set back for both the LDF and the UDF. If the BJP is able to overcome the allegations of vote leaks, it is yet to be seen which front would be affected.

Kerala is all set to go to the polls on April 6 in a single phase. With the public campaigns ending today, there is almost a month’s wait after the polling to know people’s preference, as the counting is on May 2.