Thiruvananthapuram: With Assembly elections around the corner, keen attention of the whole nation once again is on the Left ruled state of Kerala - be it the developments in the run-up to the 2021 general elections in the only Communist governed State, the possibility of another term for the Left or the return of Congress.
Political analysts closely watch the election run-up to see if the Congress would be elected to power in a State where Rahul Gandhi had won in Parliament elections, or if the BJP’s tactics would see success in pushing back the Congress and rising as the main opponent to the Left Front.
Kerala has seen many governments which have not completed their terms right from the first EMS Namboothiripad government in 1957 to 1969 C Achutha Menon government.
The government which came to power through a Congress - CPI alliance in 1970, led by C Achutha Menon was the first to get the credit of completing a term. Later, as Emergency was declared in 1975 and elections were suspended, Achutha Menon continued to be the Chief Minister of the State until 1977. In the election in 1977, Kerala elected the same alliance to power yet again.
However, since 1982, the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Congress and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by the Communist Party Marxist (CPM) have been governing Kerala one after the other in an alternating pattern for full terms. Since 1982, neither of the political fronts have got to govern for a consecutive term.
Also read: BJP is growing in Kerala, says Prahlad Joshi
Election history of Kerala
Kerala was formed on November 1, 1956, and the first general elections were held in 1957.
The first government was formed through elections led by the Communist Party’s EMS Namboothirippad. This was the first Communist Party of India (CPI) government, before a split within the CPI.
Nevertheless, the first government of Kerala could not complete a five-year term. An uprise against the EMS Government led by different religious and communal organisations, which later came to be known as the ‘Liberation Struggle’ (Vimochana Samaram in Malayalam) unleashed violence in the state and the law and order in the democratic state went for a toss.
With this, the EMS Government was dismissed by the then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru on July 31, 1959. Thus the first Communist Government in Kerala fell without completing its term.
In the elections held in 1960, the Indian National Congress won a majority of seats. A leader of Praja Socialist Party, a Congress ally then, Pattom Thanu Pillai headed the Council of Ministers in the second Government.
On September 26, 1962, as Pattom Thanu Pillai was appointed the Governor of Punjab, the second Chief Minister of democratic Kerala also resigned without completing his term. Following this, Congress leaders and Deputy Chief Minister in the Thanu Pillai Cabinet, R Shankar assumed office as the Chief Minister on 1962 September 26. Then, the Assembly had three years to complete its term.
On September 10, 1964, a no-confidence motion presented by a faction of the Congress and the Opposition together was passed in the Assembly. With this, the third Cabinet led by Shakar also could not serve the State for a full term. For about one year since then, Kerala was under the Presidential rule.
In the General Elections held in 1965, no parties could get a clear majority and none could form a Government. Following this, Kerala continued to be on Presidential rule for the next two years.
In 1967 General Elections, the first after the Communist Party split into two, the CPM and the CPI allied and faced the elections. Of the 133 seats, the Left front gained an Absolute majority and formed a Government. EMS became the Chief Minister for the second term.
Following CPI-CPM conflicts and tiffs within the Left Front, as the CPI withdrew its support for the Government, the EMS Government fell before it could complete the term on October 24, 1969. EMS Namboothiripad resigned as the Chief Minister following the CPI’s move.
Later, the CPI allied with the Muslim League and gaining external support from the Congress, to form a Government under CPI leader C Achutha Menon on 1969 November 1. As Absolute majority was lost, Achutha Menon resigned even before he completed a year, August 3, 1970.
First CM to complete the term
After the resignation of C Achutha Menon in the 1970 elections, Congress, CPI, Muslim League and Kerala Congress allied and won the majority. CPI Leader C Achutha Menon assumed office as the Chief Minister yet again.
Also read: Sabarimala issue can be raised during Kerala election campaign, says EC
It was this cabinet under Achutha Menon which completed its term of five years governing Kerala.
In 1975, even as the term of the elected Government was to expire, Emergency was declared in India and all elections were suspended. With this decision at the Centre, Achutha Menon continued for another two years till 1977. In the 1977 elections, the same alliance got a consecutive term.
When the Congress had witnessed a set back across India after the Emergency period under the Congress rule at the Centre, Kerala was the only Indian State where Congress returned to power in an alliance. In 1977, Congress took over the position of the Chief Minister from its ally CPI.
Though the Congress had two Chief Ministers, the CPI withdrew its support to the Congress-led Government in Kerala as per the CPI Bhatinda Congress decision calling for the Left parties to unite and leave Congress. With this move by the CPI, the Congress-CPI Government fell before it could complete the term.
In 1980 General elections, a faction of the Congress-led by A K Antony joined the Left Front and contested elections. With the help of Congress’s Antony faction, the Left Front assumed power. E K Nayanar became the Chief Minister. However, when A K Antony returned to the Congress-led front, the Antony faction withdrew support to the Left Government. On 20 October 1981, E K Nayanar resigned.
In the General Elections in 1982, UDF came to power under the leadership of K Karunakaran. This Government completed its term of 5 years.
Thereafter, all elected Governments in Kerala have completed their terms and the State has been governed by the Left Democratic Front and the United Democratic Front in alternate terms.
Breaking this trend, the LDF claims that it would win a consecutive term to govern Kerala in the ensuing elections. Though there are many controversies and allegations raked up by the Opposition parties against the Government, the progress made by the ruling Left Front in the 2020 December Local Body elections gives confidence to the Left Camp.
Meanwhile, the Congress which faced an unexpected set back in the civic body polls is all out in preparing to return to power in Kerala. The UDF points to the massive participation by the people in the Aishwarya Kerala Yathra led by Opposition Leader Ramesh Chennithala as an indication.
Besides, Pala MLA Mani C Kappan, who was the leader of NCP an ally of the LDF, moved to the Opposition UDF camp and participated in the Aishwarya Kerala Yathra. The UDF which was tarnished in the civic body polls thus rose to a state where it is an equal opponent to the ruling LDF as the battlefield gets set.
As the UDF has joined hands in the PSC rank holders’ protests across the State allegedly against the Government’s refusal to appoint them, the UDF has ensured the support of the education unemployed in the State.
Amidst all these, how the BJP would perform to improve its present status of a single-seat representation in the State Assembly remains a question mark. At the same time, Congress has realised that if the BJP tries to prevent Congress from assuming power in a hidden strategy, that would be detrimental to the UDF. It could work as an achievement for the LDF. The UDF is formulating its election strategies keeping these possibilities in mind.
Political fronts in Kerala
Unlike the other Indian States, Kerala has been governed in alternative terms by two major democratic fronts; the Left Democratic Front led by the CPM and the United Democratic Front led by the Congress, since 1980.
Also read: Experiencing the world from classroom; Virtual & Augmented labs set in Kerala school
LDF Allies:
Communist Party Marxist (CPM), Communist Party of India (CPI), Janata Dal Secular, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Kerala Congress Skaria faction, Janadhipathya Kerala Congress, Indian National League, Kerala Congress B, Communist Marxist Party (Aravindakshan Faction), Revolutionary Socialist Party (Leninist) and National Secular Conference.
Besides, Loktantrik Janata Dal and the Jose K Mani faction of Kerala Congress - both of which were with the UDF in 2016 - have joined the LDF.
UDF Allies:
Congress, Indian Union Muslim League, Kerala Congress (Joseph faction), Revolutionary Socialist Party and Communist Marxist Party (C P John faction). Recently, Pala MLA Mani C Kappan, one of the two NCP (LDF ally) incumbent MLAs in the State Assembly has also moved to the UDF camp. Kappan has announced that he would form a splinter faction of the NCP in a couple of days.
NDA allies:
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Other allies of the NDA are Bharath Dharm Jana Sena (BDJS), Kerala Congress (P C Thomas faction), Janadhipathya Samrakshana Samithi (JSS) Rajan Babu faction.
Total number of Assembly constituencies in Kerala: 140
The seat division in the Kerala Assembly as per 2016:
LDF: 91
UDF: 47
BJP: 1
Independent: 1
In 2016, the CPM contested in 90 constituencies and won 58 seats. The CPI contested in 27seats and won in 19 of them. Janata Dal S won 3 of the five seats contested and the NCP won in 2 of the 4 seats fought for. One seat each was secured by Kerala Congress B, Congress Secular, RSP Leninist, National Secular Conference, and CMP (Aravindhakshan faction) by contesting in one constituency each. Though the INL and Janadhipathya Kerala Congress contested in 7 seats, both failed in all the seats.
In 2016, though the Congress had contested 87 seats, only 22 seats could be secured. Muslim League won in 18 of the 24 seats contested.
Kerala Congress Mani faction won in 6 of the 15 seats contested in while Kerala Congress Jacob faction one in the only seat it contested in. Janata Dal-United (Later Loktantrik Janata Dal) and the RSP were tarnished in all the 13 seats contested.
While the BJP had contested 98 seats in 2016 elections, it could secure only one seat. The NDA allies - BDJS and Kerala Congress P C Thomas faction which had contested in 36 constituencies failed in all.
