Surat/Bharuch: Due to its rapid industrialization Surat has emerged as the fastest-growing city in the world. Most of the labourers in the city’s textiles and diamond industry are migrant labourers from outside the state which play an important role in the elections.
BJP has been ruling the Surat municipal corporation since the last 20 years and Congress has failed to play the role of a strong opposition party. This is why Congress has failed to come to power in the municipal corporation.
In the 2015 elections, the BJP had won 79 seats and the Congress 37 in the 116-member municipal corporation this was when the Patidar agitation was at its peak. It was because of the anti-BJP Patidar agitation that the Congress was able to win these many seats.
Muslim population of about 7 lakh
There has always been a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP in every election. However, this time the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the AIMIM have both fielded their candidates. This will have a direct impact on both the Congress and the BJP. Muslims are the main supporters of Asaduddin Owaisi’s party. In Surat, there are about 7 lakh Muslims. AIMIM is banking on them. Particularly in areas like Rander, Limbayat and the fort area, Muslims may vote for the AIMIM. This would adversely affect Congress.
AAP eyeing all Patidar dominated seats
In the year 2015, because of the Patidar agitation, people of Patidar-dominated areas of Varachha, Kapodra and Karanj had voted for the Congress to express their anger against the BJP. This is why the Congress won most seats from these areas. This time the Aam Aadmi Party is eyeing all these seats. Aam Aadmi Party has already declared the names of its candidates. Aam Aadmi Party is carrying out all its programmes in these areas. Aam Aadmi Party is trying to woo voters unhappy with the BJP and who do not want to vote for the Congress and did not have any option till now. There are about 15 lakh people in the Patidar-dominated areas who hail from Saurashtra and North Gujarat who have been playing a decisive role in the municipal corporation elections.
Aam Aadmi Party is also banking on the migrant workers who have come from other states. This is because a large number of migrant workers from the city were forced to flee to their home states during the coronavirus pandemic.
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Election is going to be more interesting
According to new demarcation, the election will be held for 120 seats of 30 wards. This time the election will be more interesting because of the entry of Aam Aadmi Party and the AIMIM in the hitherto bipolar contest between the BJP and Congress.
Talking on the subject, senior journalist and political analyst Faizal Bakili told ETV Bharat that this time the Aam Aadmi Party is eyeing the Patidar-dominated areas wherein the 2015 elections the members of this community were against the BJP. But that time they had only Congress as the alternative but they were averse to the Congress. For such people, the Aam Aadmi Party provides a good option. However, it is difficult to say how many seats AAP would be able to win. It may so happen that the party may cut into the votes of any other party.
AIMIM may eat into Congress votes
He also said that a particular community may vote for Owaisi’s party which will adversely affect the Congress. If AIMIM decides to contest the local self-govern body polls, as it has done in other states, it will cut into the votes of the Congress. Its effect could be seen in four to five wards in South Gujarat. However, there are not enough Muslim votes in this region to ensure the victory of Muslim candidates. There is a fair chance of victory for the AIMIM candidates in the Muslim pockets of the Vadodara and Ahmedabad urban areas.
Alliance between BTP and AIMIM in Bharuch because of significant numbers of tribal and Muslim voters
After gaining popularity in Hyderabad, Maharashtra and Bihar, AIMIM has entered into an alliance with the BTP which has dominance over the tribal belt of Bharuch. AIMIM has begun survey for the selection of candidates in Bharuch and other districts which have a significant presence of Muslims.
Talking to ETV Bharat, political analyst Devanand Jadav said Adivasis and Muslim voters are dominant in the Bharuch parliamentary constituency of Bharuch and Narmada districts. Because of this, Owaisi’s party, which is popular among Muslim youth, and the BTP, which has control over tribal voters, have entered into an alliance to form a new political equation. As Congress has failed in living up to the expectations of the minority voters of Bharuch, AIMIM can emerge as an alternative choice.
