Ahmedabad (Gujarat): With the entry of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the fray -the 61 seats of central Gujarat are technically one-third of the total 182 seats of the state, spread across eight districts and unevenly leaning towards BJP with a division of 37 against 17 in favour of the saffron brigade in the last assembly polls - the ruling party might have the much-desired edge in this assembly polls too.
The demography of Central Gujarat has a diversified voting pattern as two of the eight districts- Ahmedabad and Vadodara have urban a population with the rest of the six districts being dominated by tribal and scheduled caste voters. This demographic heterogeneity has not only given it a uniqueness but also forced the political parties to change their campaign narrative that will tune with the needs of the people.
According to the statistics of the Election Commission's final voter list, the cumulative population of 61 constituencies is 1,64,73,000 of which 84, 51,000 male voters and 80, 17,000 female voters.
A closer analysis of the voting design will allow us to understand the situation better. In the 2017 assembly election, BJP managed to get 23 of the 31 seats from the urban Ahmedabad and Vadodara area whereas Congress could manage 15 out of 30 seats from the rest of the six rural districts. BJP managed to get 14 and one went to the independent candidate.
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According to political experts though Scheduled Caste, Scheduled Tribe and OBC dominate all the 8 districts of central Gujarat but it predominantly impresses upon the voting pattern majorly in the six rural districts including Dahod, Anand, Kheda, Panchmahal, Mahisagar and Chotta Udepur. So the entry of AAP in the fray might not make a dent into the urban vote bank of BJP but the party's dole politics and freebies might have a substantial effect on the rural vote bank which might prove expensive for Congress.
Naturally- in an effort to woo the tribal and lower caste people of central Gujarat, BJP is promoting the tribal program, and its advantages and are trying to address their problems. On the other hand, AAP is banking on jobs, health, and education. Speaking to ETV Bharat political analyst Jayesh Shah said, "in the last assembly polls BJP failed miserably in North Gujarat and Saurashtra but they did fairly well in Central Gujarat and it was because of their performance in these 61 constituencies they were able to form the government".
"The entry of AAP might affect the rural vote bank which might, in turn, provide BJP with a better opportunity to increase their tally in central Gujarat. Though the selection of candidates will be a major challenge for the saffron brigade, if they manage to tide over it, there is a possibility that they might get 45 to 48 seats," Shah added.
