Imphal: The counting of votes for the just held Manipur assembly elections assumes significance not only for the state but also for the entire northeast region. Poll pundits in the region believe that the result of the Manipur elections on Thursday will not only impact the elections in Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura scheduled for early next year but also shape the saffron party's prospect in the region, which has seen an upward trend since 2016.
The BJP first came to power in Assam in 2016 with the help of regional parties and retained power for the second consecutive term in 2021. The saffron party also came to power in Manipur, Tripura and in Arunachal Pradesh in 2017, 2018 and in 2019 respectively, again with the help of regional parties.
Five years down the line, BJP's alliance with regional parties in some states, including Manipur, has strained. In the just held Manipur elections, BJP parted ways with National Peoples' Party (NPP) and Naga Peoples' Front (NPF) and fielded party candidates independently. The NPP and NPF not only fielded candidates against the BJP but also helped many rebel BJP sitting MLAs to gain ground.
While Prime Minister Narendra Modi had campaigned twice in Manipur, Union Home Minister Amit Shah also visited the state twice ahead of the two-phased elections. Other VVIP campaigners to address rallies in Manipur included Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, BJP president JP Nadda and Union Minister Smriti Irani.
Meanwhile, Congress' campaign in the state was led by Rahul Gandhi, with Priyanka Gandhi addressing one virtual rally in Manipur. The Congress had also deputed veterans like Jairam Ramesh to oversee the elections in Manipur.
Issues in Manipur
While the BJP is confident about the development works the government had undertaken in the past five years to return to power for a second consecutive term, Opposition Congress and other parties are hoping that the government's failure to repeal the Armed forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), the development divide between the valley and hills of Manipur, rising unemployment issues and the infighting in the BJP will work in their favour in this election.
There is no denying the fact that development has taken place in Manipur in the past five years. As the government has been able to improve the law and order situation considerably, there has been a sharp decline in the number of bandhs and blockades in the state. The government has also taken steps to improve road networks and connected the state with the country's rail network. The BJP government in Manipur has also upgraded the Imphal airport to an international one, improving its connectivity with major Indian cities. The proposed India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway and upcoming Rs 9,000 crore natural gas pipeline in the region testifies to the government's development claim.
However, the government has failed to bridge the 'developmental divide' between the valley and hills of Manipur. While the areas under the valley have witnessed significant development, it is yet to reach the hills area and the living conditions of the people in the hills are still pitiable. There is just one medical college in the hills of Manipur to cater to the health requirement of people in 20 assembly segments in the state.
The BJP led government has also failed to make its stand clear on AFSPA. People in the insurgency ravaged Manipur have been demanding repeal of the AFSPA for a long time. The anti-AFSPA agitation in Manipur and other parts of northeast India intensified after the massacre of 16 civilians at Oting in Nagaland's Mon district. While the BJP has remained silent on the issue, Congress and other parties have assured to repeal the infamous act if they come to power in Manipur.
Infighting in BJP and Congress to benefit NPP and JD(U)
Despite the development schemes, five years in power has made BJP a divided house in Manipur. At least 15 sitting MLAs in the saffron party left it to join Congress and JD(U) after being denied a ticket to contest the elections this year. The likes of sitting MLAs Phukrem Sarat (Moirang seat), Ningthoujam Biren Singh from Sekmai and Y Joykumar from Bishnupur, who have switched to Congress, might jeopardise the prospect of BJP this time.
Similarly, Samuel Jendai (Tamenglong seat), Kshetrimayum Biren Singh (sitting MLA from Lamlai), former Manipur Chief Secretary Oinam Nabakishore Singh and former Manipur DGP LM Khaute quitting Congress to join JD (U) will affect Congress' prospects.
NPP and JD(U) eyes kingmaker's role
The NPP, which is a ruling party in Meghalaya, has fielded candidates in 38 of the total 60 constituencies in Manipur. Though the party had four MLAs in the state and was in alliance with the saffron party since the 2017 elections, it severed alliance with the ruling BJP to field candidates on its own. Party president and Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma supervised the campaigns in Manipur and hopes to emerge as a 'kingmaker' after March 10.
With some of the veteran politicians in Manipur joining the NPP, Sangma is hopeful that the party will get a substantial number of seats out of 38 seats the party contested. Sangma, while talking to media, had predicted a fractured mandate in Manipur polls and hoped to cash in on the situation.
Similarly, JD(U) had also fielded candidates in 38 seats in the Manipur elections and hoped that it would get a good number of seats this time. "In 2000, we won two seats in the region. We won one seat in Manipur assembly in 2000. Prominent leaders like Khumukcham Joykisan have joined JD (U) this time. Khwairakpham Loken, who was with the BJP, joined us, Tamenglong MLA Samuel Jendai joined us. These people have reposed faith in JD(U) because of reasons," said Afaq Ahmed Khan, national general secretary and Northeast in-charge of JD(U).
