New Delhi: Though Iran has denied any hand behind the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza that has claimed over 9,000 lives on both sides so far, many still believe that it is Tehran’s proxies that are at play here.
Even as Israel is expanding its offensive against the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza, the Jewish nation is also facing a second front of war with the Hezbollah in Lebanon in the north. Both Hamas and Hezbollah enjoy the support of Iran.
Iran and Hezbollah, both Shiite entities, have a deep-seated ideological and religious affinity with the Palestinian cause, which is seen as a struggle against what they perceive as oppression and injustice. Many Palestinians are Sunni Muslims, but this doesn’t negate the strong ideological connections that exist, especially when it comes to confronting Israel, which is viewed as a common adversary.
Iran and Hezbollah have consistently opposed the State of Israel and its policies in West Asia. They see Israel’s establishment as a historic injustice, and they are committed to supporting any group or cause that resists Israeli occupation and what they view as Israeli aggression in the region.
It is in this context that former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett propounded the Octopus Doctrine. In a little-known speech nearly five years ago, while he was still education minister, Bennett presented his Octopus Doctrine for dealing with the multidimensional challenges emanating from Iran. According to the Doctrine, Iran is the head of the octopus while its tentacles are Tehran’s proxies spread all across Israel’s neighbourhood. These include Hamas and the Palestine Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, pro-Iran militias in Syria and Iraq and militias comprising Afghan and Pakistani fighters brought to Syria.
While presenting his theory, Bennett had said that “the Iranians don’t love dying”. “But it is very easy for them to send others to die. While we’re shedding blood-fighting their tentacles, the octopus’s head is lounging in its chair enjoying itself,” he said, adding that it was time for Israel to change its approach and to “aim at the head of the octopus and not its tentacles”.
“Israel believes Iran is its biggest security challenge,” Prasanta Kumar Pradhan, Research Fellow and Coordinator of the West Asian Centre of the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyse (MP-IDSA), told ETV Bharat. “Though Iran does not share a border with Israel, it has its proxies all over the Jewish nation’s neighbourhood. That is where Iran’s advantage lies.”
Pradhan explained that, according to the Octopus Doctrine, Israel doesn’t want to keep fighting the octopus’s tentacles like Hamas and Hezbollah but strike right at its head. “But that is easier said than done,” he said. “Israel has been targeting Iranian military sites in Syria. But to hit Iran directly will be difficult. Striking the head might be a long-term objective.”
According to Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow at the MP-IDSA and an expert on Iran, under the Octopus Doctrine, Israel’s aim is to strike at the octopus’s head that is Iran. “This will be through cyber-attacks and strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities,” Saraswat said. “Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). But it can enrich uranium to weapons-grade material.”
According to an article headlined ‘Israel’s new Iran strategy complicates regional security’ published on the Middle East Institute website, Israel has expanded its campaign against Iran in recent years with the aim of preventing it from developing a nuclear warhead and delivery system. “Israel has intensified its attacks on Iran’s missile and drone bases as well as senior commanders, engineers, and scientists working on these programs,” the article reads. “These attacks are a major part of what former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called the Octopus Doctrine, which involves stepping up covert operations on Iranian territory, rather than targeting regional proxies in third countries.”
Pradhan said that in the medium term, wiping out Hamas from Gaza will remain Israel’s immediate priority. He is of the view that Israel is also mentally prepared for a two-front war as Hezbollah has been exchanging fire with Israeli positions along the Lebanon border. Tehran has also mobilised and deployed soldiers of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah terrorists, and Syrian militias in southwest Syria near the Israeli border in preparation for additional attacks against Israel.
“If Hezbollah decides to get involved directly, then there will be tough days ahead for Israel,” Pradhan said. “Anyway, it is going to be a long drawn-out war as Hamas too has a lot of resources at its disposal.”
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