New Delhi: US President-elect Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th President of the United States on January 20 next year. Many Analysts view that unlike Trump, Biden is expected to have a more traditional approach to foreign affairs, supportive of multilateral organizations and focused on restoring Washington’s international standing and alliances.
So what will this mean for US-Pakistan relations? ETV Bharat spoke to a few experts on this matter.
Senior Research Fellow and expertise in Pakistan Sushant Sareen said, “There are lot of expectations in Pakistan that the Americans will follow the Pakistani line on Afghanistan and Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan will create a greater favour for Pakistan in Washington. Secondly, certain adjurations which were made during the Biden campaign and democratic leaders on developments in India especially in J& K will lead to greater pressure on India by the Biden administration. These are the two big expectations that the Pakistani’s have which they think will bring them to centre stage in US foreign policy as far as South Asia is a concern.
“From the American side, we will have to see as right now it is not very clear what exactly the policies of Biden administration are going to be. Will they abandon Afghanistan? Which could have one set of implications, secondly, Will they double down in Afghanistan to protect Afghanistan from the Taliban? That could have another set of implications. So it is not very clear as to what exactly the Biden administration would do”, he added.
One thing that Pakistanis and Indians need to understand is that if the Americans are unable to pressurize a country like Pakistan for 20 years, despite Pakistanis killing or having a hand in the killing of the American soldiers in Afghanistan or Pakistan sabotaging the American war effort in Afghanistan, then to think that the Americans will be able to pressure India into submission for the cause of Pakistan will be grossly unrealistic. Of course, there will be loony liberals in the West who will make some noises which need to be ignored, Sareen points out.
On economic ties between US-Pakistan, Shareen said, “Pakistan doesn’t figure much as far as trade relation is concerned. The second component is the aid and the US aid to Pakistan is not going to go up substantially. There might be some dribbles of aid which will continue to go. But the most important factor will be the US position in so far as international markets or International Financial Institutions are concerned”.
It is to be noted that for 20 years, the war in Afghanistan shaped US-Pakistan ties. At a time when this dynamic is expected to change, it is to be seen how Biden’s presence in the White House can help the foreign policy establishment in Islamabad forge new partnerships with Washington based on the two nation’s mutual geopolitical and economic interests.
Further, when asked about the approach Biden’s administration will likely have towards crisis between India and Pakistan, Sareen underlined that in the event of the major crisis, the US will revert to the old role the country used to play, which is to try and insert themselves in a way that they are not mediating but they are ensuring that things don’t spiral out of control by asking both Indians and Pakistanis to back off. That is what Biden administration is going to do, unlike Trump administration which was open in support for India and defended Indian action by saying that India did what it had needed to do. I don’t foresee that is happening under Biden presidency.
On China policy, Sareen explained, “From Biden presidency, it is expected that substantially the policy will be of containing China. The style might change, unlike Trump who somewhat had erratic style. I don’t think the same aggressiveness would be the order of the day but I could imagine that the substance of containing China would probably proceed to upraise. The substance of the policy would more or less be consistent as the last couple of years”.
ORF’s Director Prof Harsh V. Pant says, “There are expectations that perhaps, Mr Biden would like to open up to Pakistan in his initial days, unlike Trump who came to office with a hard-line approach to Pakistan, where he cancelled the aid. He linked aid very directly to Pakistani behaviour and conclude that Pakistani behaviour does not merit any American support. It is expected that Biden would go the traditional way. However, I sense that perhaps it might happen he would give Pakistan an opportunity once again given that Americans have a stake at Afghanistan".
What we have seen in the last few years is that there has been a consensus across the political spectrum in America. There needs to be a toughening approach with vis-à-vis Pakistan. I sense that eventually Mr Biden’s memory of what it was like to be working in Obama administration and his long years of experience working in Senate Foreign Relations Committee, might mean that he would be equally strong with Pakistan. He may have a different style or maybe he will not admonish Pakistan publicly unlike Trump. Biden is expected to dramatically reverse the US –Pakistan relationship, which seems to be rather optimistic to me”, Pant added.
Unlike Trump, Biden knows Pakistan. He travelled to the country several times as vice president. He was one of the principal architects, along with Senator John Kerry of the Kerry-Lugar Berman Act of 2009. Perhaps more importantly, contrary to Trump’s unpredictable, unilateralist, personal and at times erratic approach to foreign affairs, it is viewed that Biden believes in dealing with other nations through institutions.
Biden will undoubtedly keep supporting India against China in the region, but unlike Trump, the new President is expected to adopt a less aggressive approach towards Beijing than his predecessor to secure some cooperation on issues like ending the coronavirus pandemic, addressing climate change, and ensuring nuclear non-proliferation.
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