Gujarat elections are becoming all the more interesting, particularly after the density of Muslim candidates have increased in seats with a sizeable Muslim population. All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), apparently claiming that the party represents the muslim sentiment is making wobbly steps to mark its presence in the state legislature by fielding 14 candidates in its maiden fight for the full-term House. The fielding of candidates- 12 of them Muslims- in constituencies with a significant Muslim voters, AIMIM chief, Asaduddin Owaisi has left the seats wide open for BJP to sweep while posing a challenge for all the non-BJP parties.
The saffron party has a loyal voter base in the state and is difficult to influence them, unlike the congress which derives their voter base from all non-BJP voters and the AAP which banks on its welfare state approach. Muslims in Gujarat who are perceived to be anti-BJP have always voted for the Congress which they saw as an alternative to the right wing party, but this election offers a far wider range of options for them, which may cause a huge split in the Muslim votes.
The recently concluded by-election in Bihar’s Gopalganj seat serves as a classic example of how AIMIM can sway the fortunes of the opposition. BJP and RJD had a difference of 1,794 votes and AIMIM got 12,214 electorate culling the RJD votes. Had Owaisi not fielded Abdus Salam as candidate, RJD would have won Gopalganj seat by a margin of roughly 10,000 votes. Similarly, the Ahmedabad seat of Jamalpur-Khadia is in no way different from Bihar’s Gopalganj seat given the poll dynamics of the constituency, and as a result, AIMIM is most likely to play as a spoiler for both the Congress and the AAP.
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Since the Chhipa (community involved in dyeing and printing) population of Muslims of Jamalpur-Khadia makes up a significant portion of the electorate in the constituency, this time Imran Khedawala and Sabir Kabliwala are two candidates from the same community fighting against each other for the AIMIM and the Congress. Imran is sitting MLA of Jamalpur-Khadia, whereas Sabir is the state president of the Owaisi’s party. In the Chhipa community, it has long been a tradition to decide unanimously to vote for a particular candidate; however, this time, since both candidates are Chhipas, it's possible that they won't be able to make up their minds and may confuse the voters thus giving edge to the BJP.
The idea that Owaisi is the BJP's B team and that the candidates he fields are more advantageous to the BJP has been in discussions for some time. The AIMIM leader Owaisi's reputation has been in question particularly after by-polls to a seat in Bihar which went to the BJP because the AIMIM candidate divided the vote. A section protested against Owaisi and chanted anti-Owaisi slogans while he was campaigning for his candidates in Gujarat. He was branded as a “BJP and RSS” agent by those protesters.
Owaisi withdrew his candidate-Shahanawaz Pathan's nomination for the Bapunagar seat of Ahmedabad. It remains to be seen whether it was done as a damage control or as a part of well-thought-out strategy of leaving the Bapunagar seat to the Congress candidate Himmat Singh. This seat has 16 percent Muslim votes.
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Although, AIMIM withdrew its candidacy from the race, but there are still 10 out of 29 candidates in the fray are Muslims in the Bapunagar seat. In the Limbayat constituency which has 27 percent Muslim electorate where 44 candidates are contesting and 36 of them are Muslims will leave Muslim voters perplexed and indecisive.
Owaisi has fielded a Scheduled Caste candidate against the Congress sitting MLA, Shailesh Parmar, of Danilimda of Ahmedabad, a seat reserved for SC. This gives an impression that Owaisi's focus is on both Muslims and Dalits. Danilimda seat has a large Muslim population together with SCs and Scheduled Tribes. The total electorate of the seat is 2,39,999, of which 65,760 are Muslims, giving them a vote share of 27 percent in the assembly segment.
In Gujarat, around 11% of the state's electorate is made up of Muslims. About 25 state assembly seats have a sizable Muslim population. AIMIM has been concentrating on seats where Muslims and Dalits are significant in number and are mostly decisive. Owaisi’s fielding of another SC candidate in Vadgam seat against Congress MLA and well-known activist Jignesh Mevani clearly shows that the seat which was once invincible for BJP will now be up for an easy grab. Mevani contested as an independent candidate in 2017 while the Congress and the AAP did not enter the fray.Vadgam which is reserved for SCs has a Muslim population of around 25 percent.
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While the BJP is contesting on all 182 seats, the Congress is only fielding its candidates on 179 constituencies. In the 2017 elections, the BJP won only 18 seats from all of Saurashtra region which has 11 districts, and has historically been a stronghold for the Congress party. In the past five years, nine congressmen who were MLAs in Saurashtra and Kutch have switched to the BJP. In last elections, BJP got 49% of the vote from across the state, followed by Congress with 41%, and with the remainder being mopped up by 'others'.
However, this time the vote share of the Congress is likely to get split between the AAP and the AIMIM, boosting the confidence of the BJP. Congress, on the other hand, seems to have given up the Saurashtra region with their poor campaign while the Prime Minister Narendra Modi is aggressively campaigning and asking people to vote for him.
