Tallinn (Estonia) : Behind bars in penal colonies or in self-exile abroad, Russian opposition figures vow they will still put up a fight against President Vladimir Putin as he seeks yet another term in office in an election in March.
Although they believe Putin will be declared the winner no matter how voters cast their ballots, they say they hope to undermine the widespread public support he enjoys, turn popular opinion against the devastating war he unleashed on Ukraine, and show those who oppose it already that they are not alone.
No one but us will step into this battle for the hearts and the minds of our fellow citizens. So we need to do it and win, imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny said in an online statement relayed from behind bars.
Putin, 71, announced Friday that he will run for president again, to pile another six years onto his two dozen in power. He could even run again in 2030.
The vote is scheduled for March 15-17, with his victory all but assured. The vast majority of opposition figures are either imprisoned or have fled the country, almost all independent news outlets have been blocked, and any criticism has been muted by a slew of repressive laws adopted over the last decade.
This is, basically, a guarantee that (the Kremlin) can declare any result whatsoever, said Nikolay Petrov, visiting researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, in an interview with The Associated Press.
Some activists agree there is no point in trying to influence the election's outcome. They say they will take advantage of the election campaign to press their views about Putin and his government - a time when Russians will be more politically active than usual, according to Leonid Volkov, Navalny's top strategist and chief of staff.
Our task is to make sure that the issues we will be able to raise and bring into the public agenda in January, February, March stick - stick with Russians even after the election, said Volkov, who left Russia several years ago.
To that end, Volkov and his team launched a project called Navalny's Campaigning Machine. The idea is simple - talk to as many Russians as possible, either by phone or online, and convince them to turn against the candidates we hate: candidate Putin and candidate War,' as Navalny himself put it in an online post announcing the project in June.
In late October, the project already had about 170 volunteers making the calls, Volkov said, and was conducting a survey to figure out the specific grievances and needs of people in order to tailor talking points they would use in future phone calls. Volkov said that out of the thousands of calls already made, only a handful of people said they were completely content with everything happening in Russia and beyond.
Others had at least one complaint. Someone is discontented over the war, someone is discontented with the economic situation, someone is unhappy with the health care system, social justice - lots of things, Volkov said. There are questions that the authorities can't answer, and by raising them with the Russians, the team hopes to cause political problems for the Kremlin, Volkov said. The authorities' inability to address these issues "will elicit frustration and pain, political problems for Putin that will only grow, he added.
On the eve of Putin's announcement, the team placed a number of billboards - in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other Russian cities - that read Russia and Happy New Year, with links and QR codes leading to a website titled "Russia without Putin. The website urges people to convince at least 10 people to act against Putin and talks about various ways to campaign.
The Anti-War Committee - another opposition force that unites prominent activists in exile such as former tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, chess legend Garry Kasparov and former lawmakers turned opposition politicians Gennady Gudkov and his son, Dmitry Gudkov - also plans a campaign called No to Putin!
Gennady Gudkov told AP that the general goal of the campaign is to explain to Russians what the future could be like without Putin - no war, no repressions, with the government focusing on things like the economy, science and education.
A possible election day tactic, Gudkov said, could be to urge Putin critics to go to the polls at a specified time so that long lines form to show how many people oppose him: If the country, the elites, the world will see long queues of people who clearly disagree with Putin's policies, it will be enough. One group, however, believes there is mileage in putting forward candidates to challenge Putin at the polls. A project called Our Headquarters, launched by several activists helping those fleeing Russia to settle abroad, promises to support democratic candidates with an antiwar position.
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