New Delhi: The bold stance and gesture of the newly elected Maldives President Mohammad Muizzu and India agreeing to withdraw its military presence from Male has raised a question as to what would be the future implications when it comes to the India-Maldives ties. There has been a certain presumption that Muizzu is pro-China and thus a question came to the forefront about his government’s foreign policy and India seems to be concerned given the growing Chinese belligerence in the Indian Ocean region.
Speaking to ETV Bharat, Dr Gulbin Sultana, an expert on Maldives and Sri Lanka and Associate Fellow with (MP-IDSA), said that given Maldives' economic obligations and situation, Muizzu will try to maintain a balance as far as its ties with India and China are concerned. “Maldives will be dependent on China given Beijing’s investment in the island nation in various sectors like housing, tourism and infrastructure. But at the same time, Muizzu will try to maintain a balance and won’t be following in the footsteps of Abdulla Yameen, who is known for its pro-Chinese approach.
"Muizzu will make sure the ongoing development of Indian projects is in place. While maintaining security and defence cooperation with India, Maldives is likely to enhance maritime security cooperation with countries like the US and Australia”, said Dr Gulbin Sultana. She noted that, unlike Yameen, Muizzu will maintain good relations with India, and China and at the same time reach out to the Middle Eastern and several other countries for assistance.
“While Maldives’ economic engagement with China is likely to increase in the next five years, there will also be an effort to reach out to several other countries for assistance and maintain friendly relations with India”, she stated. Notably, former Maldivian Prez Abdulla Yameen is known for his pro-China approach and detestation of India as he believes that India had played a key role in his defeat in the 2018 Presidential elections.
“The newly elected Maldivian President is likely to diversify his foreign policy and try to maintain friendly relations with the important countries because he knows that he cannot ignore India at this point, not only because of defence and security cooperation but also because of economic dependence. In the last five years, India has provided a large amount of loans to Sri Lanka. Muizzu, in his first meeting with the Indian diplomat, has requested India to have some kind of restructuring of debt”, Dr Sultana told ETV Bharat, adding, “In the next five years, the India-Maldives relationships will not be as it was. Previously, Maldive's tilt towards India was very obvious but now the new projects will likely go to other countries. There is no need for India to be concerned as it reflects a ‘lack of confidence’.
The newly elected Maldivian President embarked on his inaugural foreign visit to Turkey and the UAE instead of India or China. Traditionally, new Maldivian presidents travel to India to underscore the close ties between the two nations. Meanwhile, both India and Maldives have agreed to set up a core group to deliberate on the continued usage of Indian military platforms in the island nation. This came up during the bilateral meeting between PM Modi and the Maldivian Prez on the sidelines of COP 28 in UAE last week.
The Maldivian side has acknowledged the utility of these platforms as it is an important segment of the bilateral partnership and discussions on how to keep them operational are ongoing. The core group that both sides have agreed to set up will look at details of how to take this forward.
Notably, the island nation has two helicopters and an aircraft provided by India to the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) for emergency medical evacuations and disaster relief operations. There are 77 Indian military personnel in Maldives to operate these platforms.
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